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Transurban Group TCL

ASXTransport and logisticsFinancials to Jun 30, 2026 · Updated Oct 6, 2026

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TCL financials
Moat score
100
ROIC
3.1%
P/E
111.2
Incl. +A$75M one-offs
EV/EBIT
50.7
FCF yield
3.3%
Dividend yield
4.8%
Market cap
A$40.7B

Moat ranks

Score rankTied #1 of 396
Durabilitydurable
Market structureQuasi-Monopoly
Pricing powermoderate

Balance sheet

6/30/26
A$BJun '25Jun '26
Cash1.72.0
Securities0.00.0
Restricted cash0.10.1
Debt21.120.6
Net cash-19.4-18.7
Equity9.27.7
Leverage
Debt / EBITDA
8.85×
Debt / equity
2.67×
Leases (6/30/26)
A$104M
Capital
Diluted shares
3,116M
Book value / share
A$2.48
Price / book
5.3×
Net cash / share
−A$5.99
Market cap
A$40.7B
Enterprise value
A$59.3B

Per-share record

Fiscal years and TTM
Scale
A$0A$0.5A$1A$1.5A$2'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'251.25'26
Revenue per shareCash flow per share

Key indicators

Latest: H2 '26
IndicatorLatestVs year agoLast 8 halves
Revenue growth–––
Operating margin24.3%–
FCF margin36.8%–
Capex / revenue10.5%–
Sydney average daily traffic1.0M+1%
Sydney proportional toll revenueA$1.9B+4%
Melbourne average daily traffic873,000+5%
Melbourne proportional toll revenueA$1.1B+9%
Brisbane average daily traffic483,000+3%

Margins and growth from reported quarters; company KPIs as reported in results releases.

About TCL

Transurban develops and operates urban toll roads in Australia and managed express lanes in Northern Virginia. Sydney contributes about half of proportional toll revenue.

Revenue mix
Sydney toll roads 48.4%Melbourne toll roads 27.0%Brisbane toll roads 15.9%North America managed lanes and concessions 8.7%
  • Concession License

    Exclusive, long-duration concession deeds grant the right to operate and collect tolls on key Sydney motorways/tunnels.

  • Benchmark Pricing Power

    Toll increases are largely contract-driven (scheduled escalation often linked to CPI/fixed rates), providing inflation-linked revenue growth but with political constraints.

  • Concession License

    CityLink (and associated extensions) operate under a long-term concession, making the asset hard to replicate and giving a contracted right to toll.

  • Benchmark Pricing Power

    Example of benchmark-linked toll escalation (fixed-rate period then CPI) supports predictable toll price growth within contract constraints.

Timeline
  1. Oct 1, 2026

    Transurban agreed to pay A$4.5 billion for CPPIB stakes in NWRG and WestConnex, funded with debt. The deal increases Sydney ownership and financing exposure, with closing targeted for 2027 subject to approvals.

  2. Aug 3, 2026

    NSW announced its negotiated toll-reform package, lowering selected tolls and changing vehicle classes while seeking to preserve concession value; documents and approvals remain conditions.

  3. Jun 15, 2026

    Transurban sold its remaining 50% of A25, ending its Canadian concession exposure and reducing the scope of North American traffic and revenue.

  4. Jun 14, 2026

    The M7-M12 Integration Project opened, completing 26 kilometres of motorway widening and linking Western Sydney growth to airport access.

  5. Dec 31, 2025 · Half year · One-off benefit +A$75M

    Commercial payments from third parties linked to construction contracts increased statutory revenue by A$75 million. This receipt does not measure recurring toll collection.

Ownership

CEO
Michelle Jablko
Since 2023 · 3 yrs
Professional CEOSingle share class

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Financial record

Fiscal year2017201820192020202120222023202420252026TrendChange 2017–26
Per share (A$)
Revenue1.341.541.621.161.051.141.351.331.271.25-0.7%/yr
Cash flow0.410.490.460.420.330.330.470.530.490.56+3.6%/yr
Earnings0.120.230.07-0.02-0.090.010.020.110.040.12+0.1%/yr
Free cash flow0.03-0.10-0.26-0.16-0.060.120.090.170.200.43+35.0%/yr
Capex0.380.590.730.580.380.200.380.360.290.14-10.8%/yr
Dividends0.390.500.530.590.300.310.480.560.570.62+5.3%/yr
Book value2.192.623.402.893.784.824.093.572.952.48+1.4%/yr
Diluted shares (M)2,0462,1382,5782,7252,7372,9913,0763,0893,1043,116+4.8%/yr
Totals (A$B)
Revenue2.73.34.23.22.93.44.24.14.03.9+4.0%/yr
Operating income0.91.01.00.60.60.61.01.10.91.2+3.0%/yr
Net income0.20.50.2-0.1-0.30.00.10.30.10.4+4.8%/yr
Free cash flow0.1-0.2-0.7-0.4-0.20.40.30.50.61.3+41.4%/yr
Buybacks0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0–
Dividends0.81.11.41.60.80.91.51.71.81.9+10.3%/yr
Net cash-12.8-14.4-17.3-19.4-13.6-15.7-16.5-17.7-19.4-18.7−A$5.8B
Margins & returns (%)
Operating margin32.929.724.018.819.116.924.027.523.630.0-2.8 pts
Net margin8.714.74.1-1.8-8.90.61.57.93.49.4+0.6 pts
FCF margin2.2-6.3-16.3-13.8-5.310.86.812.515.434.3+32.1 pts
ROIC3.63.42.71.51.61.32.42.82.33.1-0.5 pts
Return on equity5.38.72.0-0.7-2.50.10.53.01.54.7-0.6 pts
Stock pay % of revenue0.20.20.30.30.20.20.30.30.40.4+0.2 pts
Capex % of revenue28.538.245.049.536.218.028.327.122.910.8-17.6 pts

Change uses 2017 and 2026 only: compound annual growth for amounts, points for margins and returns, and the change in amount for net cash. A dash means no 2017 base. Trend shows the fiscal years.

Per-share values use diluted weighted shares.ROIC = operating income × (1 − 30.0% statutory tax rate, as the company's own rate is not meaningful) ÷ (equity + debt − cash and current securities). Returns show a dash when their base is negative or under 10% of revenue. Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capex. Debt is all borrowings; net cash counts long-term securities and excludes leases. No trailing-twelve-month column: no complete four quarters end after the last fiscal year.

Moat

Moat scorecard

Moat score100
Strength
Confidence
Structure
Quasi-Monopoly
Durability
durable
Trajectory
stable
Pricing power
moderate
Segments
  • Sydney toll roads48.4%
    2 claims
  • Melbourne toll roads27.0%
    2 claims
  • Brisbane toll roads15.9%
    2 claims
  • North America managed lanes and concessions8.7%
    1 claim

Moat claims

Applies to
Sydney toll roads
Confidence
Durability
durable
Trajectory
stableas of Oct 6, 2026
Why it holds

Exclusive, long-duration concession deeds grant the right to operate and collect tolls on key Sydney motorways/tunnels.

Why stable

Sydney toll revenue reached A$1.928 billion with traffic up 1.2%. Existing concessions remain protected, while reform and the proposed CPPIB stake purchase still require approvals.

Indicators
  • Sydney average daily traffic1,048,000+1%
  • Sydney proportional toll revenueA$1.9B+4%
  • Weighted average concession life27-2%
  • Free Cash excluding capital releases and cash reservesA$2.1B+5%
  • Sydney quarterly average daily traffic1,038,000
  • Sydney quarterly proportional toll revenueA$482M
Risks
  • Toll reform or concession renegotiation/buyback by government
  • Adverse changes to road policy (toll caps, regulation, enforcement changes)
  • Demand shock from work-from-home or economic downturn

Profile change log

  1. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    Transurban agreed to pay A$4.5 billion for CPPIB stakes in NWRG and WestConnex, funded with debt. The deal increases Sydney ownership and financing exposure, with closing targeted for 2027 subject to approvals.

  2. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    NSW announced its negotiated toll-reform package, lowering selected tolls and changing vehicle classes while seeking to preserve concession value; documents and approvals remain conditions.

  3. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    Transurban sold its remaining 50% of A25, ending its Canadian concession exposure and reducing the scope of North American traffic and revenue.

  4. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    The M7-M12 Integration Project opened, completing 26 kilometres of motorway widening and linking Western Sydney growth to airport access.

  5. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    West Gate Tunnel opened in Melbourne, connecting freight and western suburbs to the city; traffic ramp-up now determines the return on the completed project.

  6. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    The 495 Northern Extension opened four kilometres of express lanes, adding usable route capacity and more than 10% to the asset's FY26 traffic.

  7. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    ConnectEast obtained a court judgment on historical roaming fees; Transurban constrained revenue and appealed, exposing part of toll-service earnings to restitution.

  8. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    Transurban sold half of Chesapeake and lost control, moving its U.S. express-lane results to equity accounting and recording a large disposal gain outside continuing earnings.

  9. Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision

    The seven existing moat claims retain their ratings. Added road-level trajectories, operating histories, regional market context and the cash-versus-distribution debate. Corrected the current North American market after the A25 exit.

  10. Oct 6, 2026 · business change

    Transurban announced organisational changes that led to about 300 job departures and an A$29 million restructuring charge, aiming to simplify the business and reduce ongoing staffing costs.

Industry & peers

Peer map

0%10%20%30%40%50%60708090100Moat scoreIndustry medianTCL
No peer numbers yet

Peers appear on the map as their numbers are collected.

Sydney urban toll-road concessions

As of Oct 6, 2026
Quasi monopolyMedium cyclicality

Existing tolled urban motorways and tunnels in Greater Sydney, including state crossings and private concessions. Excludes general untolled road spending, transit and global toll-road revenue.

  1. Transurban and its concession partners
  2. NSW Government
2026 leaders, no comparable shares · NSW Government direct toll-reform deal
StocksMoatGross m.Op. m.
TCL100–30.0%
Industry median119013.2%30.0%
Sector median887637.0%17.5%
All stocks median3987652.9%19.6%

Moat medians cover every stock. Margin medians count only stocks with collected numbers and need at least three.

Drivers & risks

Demand drivers
  • Population growth and Western Sydney employment create road demand; M7-M12 access links the new airport catchment.
  • Freight operators pay for reliable access and saved time; demand depends on trade and construction activity.
  • Contractual escalation supports revenue when inflation rises, with delays and caps set by each concession.
  • Toll relief can attract more trips; lower customer outlays do not automatically mean lower concession revenue.
Risks
  • Political affordability pressure drives concession renegotiations; the agreed reform still needs documents, regulatory approvals and financier consent.
  • Higher fuel prices and weak household budgets encourage free routes, public transport or fewer trips.
  • Interest costs matter because roads need long funding; debt-funded stake purchases concentrate exposure to NSW policy.
  • Remote work and new untolled roads can weaken commuting demand even as population rises.
  • M5 West moves into WestConnex in December 2026 and changes partner ownership of its cash flows.

Bulls & bears

Key question · as of Oct 6, 2026

Can road-level traffic and contracted toll increases fund distributions and investment without weaker credit metrics after the A$4.5 billion Sydney stake purchase?

Arguments

5 forFaded: weakening or settled5 against

What to watch

  1. 1Like-for-like traffic and proportional toll revenue by city
  2. 2Free Cash excluding capital releases and cash reserves per security versus distributions
  3. 3Proportional debt, interest cost and credit metrics after the CPPIB acquisition

Next check: October 21, 2026 AGM and September-quarter traffic; then NSW reform documentation and ACCC review of the CPPIB acquisition.

Sources: company filings and dated sources collected for Find My Moat; market cap as of Oct 6, 2026. Not investment advice.

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Moat Score 100/100 by <a href="https://www.findmymoat.com/stocks/XASX:TCL">Find My Moat</a> (as of September 2026)

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