Find My Moat

WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES

Checking

 

Wide moat stocks

Nabtesco Corporation 6268

TokyoMachineryFinancials to Jun 30, 2026 · Updated Nov 11, 2026

On Stock Analysis · affiliate link
6268 financials
Moat score
79
ROIC
7.8%
P/E
–
EV/EBIT
–
FCF yield
–
Dividend yield
–
Market cap
–

Moat ranks

Score rankTied #157 of 396
Durabilitydurable
Market structureCompetitive
Pricing powermoderate

Balance sheet

6/30/26
¥BDec 31Jun 30
Cash79.699.6
Securities0.70.0
Debt45.443.4
Net cash34.856.2
Equity273.5285.0
Leverage
Debt / EBITDA
0.98×
Debt / equity
0.15×
Leases (6/30/26)
¥14.3B
Capital
Diluted shares
117M
Book value / share
¥2,431.47
Price / book
–
Net cash / share
¥479.14
Market cap
–
Enterprise value
–

Per-share record

Fiscal years and TTM
Scale
¥0¥1,000¥2,000¥3,000'16'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'242,580.95'252,833.09TTM
Revenue per shareCash flow per share

Key indicators

Latest: Q2 '26
IndicatorLatestVs year agoLast 8 quarters
Revenue growth16.8%–
Operating margin9.1%+2.6 pts
FCF margin18.4%+4.2 pts
Capex / revenue2.2%-1.6 pts
Precision reducer orders growth+23%+8 pts
Tsu reducer factory utilization~85.0%+20.0 pts
Changzhou reducer factory utilization~100.0%-10.0 pts
Transport aftermarket sales mix~40.0%0.0 pts
Access equipment aftermarket sales mix~45.0%0.0 pts

Margins and growth from reported quarters; company KPIs as reported in results releases.

About 6268

Nabtesco supplies precision robot reducers, transport control equipment, automatic doors and packaging machinery. Corrected H12026 continuing revenue was JPY 167.4 billion and operating profit JPY 15.8 billion, up 69.4%.

Revenue mix
Accessibility Solutions Business 35.9%Transport Solutions Business 32.6%Component Solutions Business 25.8%Others (Packaging Machinery and Welfare Equipment) 5.7%
  • Scale Economies Unit Cost

    The company estimates about 60% share of reducers for medium and large industrial robot joints.

  • Design In Qualification

    Reducers are designed into robot joints; qualification and field reliability create switching costs for robot OEMs.

  • Design In Qualification

    Safety-critical rail, aircraft, marine, and commercial-vehicle systems require platform qualification and remain designed in over long equipment lives.

  • Service Field Network

    Maintenance of qualified, long-lived transport equipment supports repeat sales.

Timeline
  1. Oct 30, 2026

    Nabtesco completed its JPY15 billion buyback on October 30, acquiring 3,306,600 shares. The November 2 notice schedules cancellation for December 15. Rechecked the corrected H1 filing and kept the issuer-planned November 13 Q3 release as a future event.

  2. Sep 30, 2026

    Nabtesco amended 2021–2026 financial reports after errors in affiliate consolidation and equity-method accounting and disclosed a material control weakness that remained unremediated.

  3. Sep 28, 2026

    Nabtesco Technology Ventures invested in LOMBY, extending an existing wireless-charging relationship into autonomous delivery robots; the Nabtesco investment amount is not disclosed.

  4. Sep 16, 2026

    Nabtesco began onboard validation of an autonomous vessel-control system integrated with a navigation application; commercial revenue from the trial is not disclosed.

  5. Sep 2026

    Nabtesco repurchased 771,600 shares for JPY 3.435 billion in September. Cumulative purchases since August 3 reached 1,861,100 shares for JPY 8.578 billion by September 30.

Ownership

CEO
Kazumasa Kimura
Since 2022 · 4 yrs
Professional CEOSingle share class

Go deeper on 6268

On Find My Moat

On this page

Financial record

Fiscal year2016201720182019202020212022202320242025TTMTrendChange 2016–25
Per share (¥)
Revenue1,979.842,285.372,373.592,334.092,249.282,471.042,575.492,776.792,335.032,580.952,833.09+3.0%/yr
Cash flow224.12186.69194.68309.54275.39299.6864.2993.10221.88275.13294.59+2.3%/yr
Earnings150.37203.48169.42144.42163.61534.1586.77118.5077.95127.58173.93-1.8%/yr
Free cash flow99.7088.0321.55190.64124.85223.00-30.42-120.13-14.16140.89197.96+3.9%/yr
Capex124.4298.67173.13118.90150.5476.6994.71213.23236.04134.2496.63+0.8%/yr
Dividends47.0960.2673.9973.0678.0372.5778.1579.1680.3780.8781.30+6.2%/yr
Book value1,195.571,355.721,439.671,509.291,605.181,990.522,093.312,188.342,269.262,292.222,431.47+7.5%/yr
Diluted shares (M)124124124124124121120120120119117-0.4%/yr
Totals (¥B)
Revenue245.0282.4294.6289.8279.4299.6309.1333.4280.5307.9332.0+2.6%/yr
Operating income26.029.521.925.328.429.718.716.713.221.027.4-2.4%/yr
Net income18.625.121.017.920.364.810.414.29.415.220.4-2.2%/yr
Free cash flow12.310.92.723.715.527.0-3.7-14.4-1.716.823.2+3.5%/yr
Buybacks––––––––0.010.1––
Dividends5.87.49.29.19.78.89.49.59.79.69.5+5.8%/yr
Net cash25.016.69.019.527.496.5105.256.843.334.856.2+¥9.8B
Margins & returns (%)
Gross margin28.428.527.026.826.227.325.024.729.230.431.0+2.1 pts
Operating margin10.610.47.48.710.29.96.05.04.76.88.3-3.8 pts
Net margin7.68.97.16.27.321.63.44.33.34.96.1-2.7 pts
FCF margin5.03.90.98.25.69.0-1.2-4.3-0.65.57.0+0.4 pts
ROIC13.712.68.49.810.713.38.35.23.75.77.8-8.0 pts
Return on equity12.615.011.89.610.226.84.15.43.45.67.2-7.0 pts
R&D % of revenue3.03.13.53.43.23.23.53.34.04.1–+1.1 pts
Stock pay % of revenue0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.00.0–-0.0 pts
Capex % of revenue6.34.37.35.16.73.13.77.710.15.23.4-1.1 pts

Change uses 2016 and 2025 only: compound annual growth for amounts, points for margins and returns, and the change in amount for net cash. A dash means no 2016 base. Trend shows the fiscal years.

TTM = four quarters to Jun 30, 2026. Per-share values use diluted weighted shares.ROIC = operating income × (1 − 35.2% tax rate, the company's own over three fiscal years excluding one-offs) ÷ (equity + debt − cash and current securities). Returns show a dash when their base is negative or under 10% of revenue. Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capex. Debt is all borrowings; net cash counts long-term securities and excludes leases.

Moat

Moat scorecard

Moat score79
Strength
Confidence
Structure
Competitive
Durability
durable
Trajectory
widening
Pricing power
moderate
Segments
  • Component Solutions Business25.8%
    2 claims
  • Transport Solutions Business32.6%
    2 claims
  • Accessibility Solutions Business35.9%
    1 claim
  • Others (Packaging Machinery and Welfare Equipment)5.7%
    1 claim

Moat claims

Applies to
Component Solutions Business
Confidence
Durability
durable
Trajectory
wideningas of Oct 9, 2026
Why it holds

The company estimates about 60% share of reducers for medium and large industrial robot joints. Q2 orders grew 23% and Tsu utilization reached about 85%, supporting recovery in unit costs; this is narrower than a measured share of all precision-motion products.

Why widening

Reducer orders grew 23% year on year in Q2 and Tsu utilization rose to about 85%, compared with 65% a year earlier. More factory output supports unit-cost recovery, although it does not prove share gains.

Indicators
  • Precision reducer orders growth+23%
  • Tsu reducer factory utilization~85.0%+20.0 pts
  • Changzhou reducer factory utilization~100.0%-10.0 pts
  • Medium and large robot joint reducer share~60.0%
Risks
  • Chinese competitors subsidizing capacity and underpricing
  • Technology shift toward alternative actuation (e.g., direct drive) in some robot joints
  • Major robot OEMs multi-source to reduce dependence

Profile change log

  1. Nov 11, 2026 · business change

    Nabtesco completed its JPY15 billion buyback on October 30, acquiring 3,306,600 shares. The November 2 notice schedules cancellation for December 15. Rechecked the corrected H1 filing and kept the issuer-planned November 13 Q3 release as a future event.

  2. Oct 9, 2026 · business change

    Nabtesco transferred its CMET 3D-printer subsidiary to a new owner, reducing exposure to a business outside its main control-equipment lines. Consideration and the separate gain are not disclosed in the Q2 briefing.

  3. Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision

    Updated the primary automatic-door market from the source’s 2025 actual estimate of USD 24.5 billion to its 2035 forecast of USD 45.8 billion, with the same broad entrance-system definition and 2025 leader list. Corrected the door-maintenance Q&A evidence date to August 5.

  4. Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision

    Added September marine evidence for classification approvals, five-region service and Kongsberg competition; distinguished alternative-fuel equipment demand from autonomous navigation, whose earnings contribution is expected in five to ten years. Packaging service mix declined from 35% to 30% year on year.

  5. Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision

    Kept repeated OVALO, Gilgen and investment-property impairments inside reported earnings instead of reversing them as one-offs. Annual acquisition and asset losses are part of the capital-allocation record; isolated sale and liquidation events remain separate.

  6. Oct 9, 2026 · business change

    Nabtesco repurchased 771,600 shares for JPY 3.435 billion in September. Cumulative purchases since August 3 reached 1,861,100 shares for JPY 8.578 billion by September 30.

  7. Oct 9, 2026 · business change

    Nabtesco amended 2021–2026 financial reports after errors in affiliate consolidation and equity-method accounting and disclosed a material control weakness that remained unremediated.

  8. Oct 9, 2026 · business change

    Nabtesco Technology Ventures invested in LOMBY, extending an existing wireless-charging relationship into autonomous delivery robots; the Nabtesco investment amount is not disclosed.

  9. Oct 9, 2026 · business change

    Nabtesco began onboard validation of an autonomous vessel-control system integrated with a navigation application; commercial revenue from the trial is not disclosed.

  10. Oct 9, 2026 · business change

    Nabtesco raised its FY2026 forecast to JPY 344 billion of revenue and JPY 32.6 billion of operating profit as reducer and transport demand improved.

  11. Oct 9, 2026 · business change

    Nabtesco transferred 70% of Comtesco to Comer and retained 30%, removing hydraulics from consolidation and receiving JPY 17.724 billion of cash consideration.

  12. Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision

    Added sourced moat trajectories, a four-part bull and bear debate, management and four linked end markets. The primary building-door profile excludes platform screen doors and uses a broader global industry estimate.

  13. Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision

    Corrected briefing evidence dates, renamed the reported Others segment, replaced Stanley with Allegion among access-equipment peers and moderated reducer pricing power using reported pass-through evidence.

  14. Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision

    Removed unsupported market-share ranges of 55–65%, 50–60%, 55–65% and 80–90%; retained reported point estimates as product- and country-specific KPIs. Global door and packaging markets are competitive beyond the concentrated Japanese niches.

  15. Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision

    Replaced H12026 segment revenue weights with full FY2025 continuing revenue weights; removed profit weights that excluded corporate costs.

  16. Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision

    Corrected the H12026 profit summary from 72.4% operating growth to 69.4% after the September 30 amendment; continuing parent profit excludes hydraulics disposal gains.

Industry & peers

Peer map

0%10%20%30%40%50%60708090100Moat scoreIndustry median6268
No peer numbers yet

Peers appear on the map as their numbers are collected.

6268 vs ALLE

Global automatic building entrance systems

As of Oct 9, 2026
CompetitiveMedium cyclicalityUSD 46B in 2035

Automatic pedestrian and specialized building entrances, including assemblies, operators, sensors, controls, access interfaces, installation and service worldwide across commercial, healthcare, industrial, residential, institutional and transportation buildings. Excludes railway platform screen doors, vehicle doors and manual door hardware.

  1. ASSA ABLOY Entrance Systems
  2. dormakaba Automatics
  3. Nabtesco
  4. Allegion
  5. GEZE
2025 leaders, no comparable shares · GMI August 2026 edition
StocksMoatGross m.Op. m.
62687931.0%8.3%
Industry median207040.9%19.0%
Sector median887637.3%18.0%
All stocks median3987653.1%20.0%

Moat medians cover every stock. Margin medians count only stocks with collected numbers and need at least three.

Drivers & risks

Demand drivers
  • Building renovation and replacement create demand even when new construction slows.
  • Accessibility, public safety and hygiene needs support powered entrances in hospitals, transport buildings and other busy facilities.
  • Labor shortages and connected diagnostics support inspection, service contracts and timely repairs.
Risks
  • Higher interest rates and weak commercial-property economics delay new projects and renovations.
  • Installation quality, entrapment safety and code compliance can create warranty costs, rework and reputational losses.
  • Regional competitors and independent service providers constrain equipment prices and aftermarket retention.
  • Steel, aluminum, electronics, wages and tariffs can raise costs before project prices adjust.

Bulls & bears

Key question · as of Oct 9, 2026

Can Nabtesco turn recovered reducer demand and service revenue into durable cash profit while it repairs financial controls and stops weak overseas projects from consuming the gains?

Arguments

5 forFaded: weakening or settled5 against

What to watch

  1. 1Precision reducer order growth and Tsu/Changzhou utilization
  2. 2Continuing segment profit and corporate costs
  3. 3Transport and access-equipment aftermarket mix
  4. 4Platform screen-door project losses and contract cash collection
  5. 5Operating cash flow, capital spending and gross treasury purchases
  6. 6Control remediation, further amendments and equity-method profit

Next check: Review the rescheduled November 13, 2026 Q3 release for reducer orders, continuing-profit reconciliation, cash conversion and evidence that the control weakness has been repaired.

Sources: company filings and dated sources collected for Find My Moat; Current shares outstanding after the completed buyback have not been verified; market cap and valuation multiples are unavailable. Not investment advice.

Cite or reuse this data

Free to reuse, commercially too, with a credit link. See the data license.

Moat Score 79/100 by <a href="https://www.findmymoat.com/stocks/XTKS:6268">Find My Moat</a> (as of September 2026)

Curation & Accuracy

This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).

Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.