VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ FINANCIAL TOOLS & SERVICES DIRECTORY ★
PRICE: 5 CENTS
Tuesday, October 28, 2025
Official CME probabilities for upcoming FOMC decisions, derived from 30‑Day Fed Funds (ZQ) futures. Web tool provides meeting‑by‑meeting probability matrices, comparisons over time, a historical download, and a Dot Plot view. A paid REST API is available for programmatic access. CME documents the probability‑tree methodology clearly; API snapshots update on business days at ~01:45 UTC. Media usage asks attribution to “CME FedWatch.”
Community votes (overall)
Key features
- Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures.
- Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel.
- Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view.
- One‑click PDF generation of the current page and Excel downloads for historical probabilities.
- Transparent methodology: unconditional probabilities via a binary probability tree built from implied EFFR, assuming 25 bp step sizes.
- FedWatch REST API (OAuth2) with endpoints for /forecasts and /meetings (future/history); extended history available.
FAQ
Is CME FedWatch Tool free?
Not entirely. CME FedWatch Tool includes a free tier, but its paid subscription options unlock more capacity. Visit the vendor site for current limits and pricing.
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