VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
PRICE: 5 CENTS
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Brown-Forman Corporation
BF.B · New York Stock Exchange
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
Brown-Forman is a global premium spirits company whose results are anchored by the Jack Daniel's whiskey franchise. The portfolio is reported in product categories (Whiskey, Ready-to-Drink, Tequila, and other brands), with whiskey comprising the majority of net sales. The core moats are brand equity (especially Jack Daniel's), an extensive route-to-consumer and owned-distribution footprint, and long-cycle capacity investments for brown spirits.
Primary segment
Whiskey
Market structure
Oligopoly
Market share
—
HHI: —
Coverage
5 segments · 6 tags
Updated 2025-12-25
Segments
Whiskey
Premium-and-above whiskey spirits (American whiskey and import whiskies)
Revenue
71.1%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
strong
Share
—
Peers
Ready-to-Drink (RTD/RTP)
Spirit-based ready-to-drink (RTD/RTP) cocktails
Revenue
12.4%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Tequila
Tequila (mainstream and premium segments)
Revenue
6.6%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Rest of Portfolio (Other Branded Spirits)
Other premium spirits and liqueurs (rum, gin, liqueurs, and other categories)
Revenue
7.4%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
Non-branded and Bulk
Non-branded bulk spirits, used barrels, and contract bottling services
Revenue
2.6%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
—
Moat Claims
Whiskey
Premium-and-above whiskey spirits (American whiskey and import whiskies)
Revenue share derived from FY2025 net sales by product category (Whiskey $2,828m of $3,975m total) in the FY2025 Form 10-K.
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 3 evidence
Jack Daniel's is a globally iconic franchise; sustained marketing investment supports loyalty and premium positioning across the whiskey portfolio.
Erosion risks
- Shifts in consumer preferences away from spirits or toward lower-priced offerings
- Brand reputation damage (quality incident, counterfeits, negative publicity)
- Increased competitive intensity from large peers and craft brands
Leading indicators
- Global depletions/volumes for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey (JDTW) and key extensions
- Price/mix vs volume trends in whiskey
- On-premise placements and menu velocity for flagship expressions
Counterarguments
- Whiskey shelves are crowded; consumers can switch if relative value worsens
- Premiumization can stall in recessions, compressing pricing power
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
A broad route-to-consumer network, including owned distribution in many countries, improves shelf execution and speed-to-market versus relying solely on third parties.
Erosion risks
- Distributor and retailer consolidation increases counterparty bargaining power
- Execution risk when transitioning markets to owned distribution
- Regulatory limits on direct-to-consumer sales (e.g., U.S. three-tier constraints)
Leading indicators
- Performance of newly transitioned owned-distribution markets (sales disruption vs acceleration)
- Distributor inventory swings vs consumer depletions
- Route-to-consumer margins and SG&A as a percent of sales
Counterarguments
- Major spirits peers also have strong global distribution and can match execution
- In many markets distribution is contractual and not exclusive
Capacity Moat
Supply
Capacity Moat
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Brown spirits require long-lead-time capacity and warehousing; sustained capex supports scale and reduces the risk of persistent out-of-stocks in high-demand expressions.
Erosion risks
- Overbuilding capacity if demand weakens, pressuring returns
- Input constraints (barrels, glass, grain) and inflation
- Inventory/aging mismatch if consumer tastes shift faster than production cycles
Leading indicators
- Capex pace and commissioning of new distillation/warehousing capacity
- In-stock rates for allocated/super-premium expressions
- Inventory turns and write-downs for aging stock
Counterarguments
- Capacity is replicable with time and capital; competitors can also expand
- Contract distilling can add supply without owning distilleries
Ready-to-Drink (RTD/RTP)
Spirit-based ready-to-drink (RTD/RTP) cocktails
Revenue share derived from FY2025 net sales by product category (Ready-to-Drink $491m of $3,975m total) in the FY2025 Form 10-K.
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
RTD offerings benefit from the Jack Daniel's franchise and co-branding, but category competition and promotion intensity reduce durability vs core spirits.
Erosion risks
- RTD category commoditization and rapid flavor/format cycling
- Retailer promotion pressure and shelf churn
- Regulatory/tax classification changes for RTDs (malt vs spirit-based rules)
Leading indicators
- RTD net sales growth vs category benchmarks
- Repeat purchase rates and SKU rationalization trends
- Distribution points and shelf space for JD RTDs
Counterarguments
- RTDs are easy for competitors to copy with existing spirits brands
- Category winners can rotate quickly based on marketing spend
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
RTD distribution leverages the broader Brown-Forman route-to-consumer footprint; however, many channels are intermediated and subject to retailer power.
Erosion risks
- Dependence on third-party distributors in many markets
- Retailer consolidation and slotting fees
- Execution risk in market transitions (partner to owned distribution)
Leading indicators
- Distribution expansion in owned-distribution markets
- Promotional intensity and trade spend as a percent of RTD sales
Counterarguments
- Distribution is rarely exclusive; large competitors access similar channels
- Retailers can reallocate shelf space quickly based on velocity
Tequila
Tequila (mainstream and premium segments)
Revenue share derived from FY2025 net sales by product category (Tequila $262m of $3,975m total) in the FY2025 Form 10-K.
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Herradura and el Jimador provide branded positions in tequila; competition is intense and brand preference can be trend-driven.
Erosion risks
- Celebrity/marketing-driven entrants gaining share quickly
- Agave supply cycles impacting costs and category pricing
- Downtrading from premium tequila to value offerings
Leading indicators
- Depletions/volumes for Herradura and el Jimador
- Net price realization vs category promotions
- Agave input cost trends and supply tightness indicators
Counterarguments
- Tequila is crowded; brand loyalty may be weaker than in whiskey
- Large peers and fast-growing brands can outspend on marketing
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Owned distribution in many international markets can improve execution for tequila, but the U.S. is structurally intermediated (three-tier) and retailers have leverage.
Erosion risks
- Distributor consolidation and shifting incentives toward competing suppliers
- Regulatory changes affecting import duties, labeling, or channel rules
- Execution risk when changing route-to-consumer models
Leading indicators
- Shelf and menu placements in key tequila markets
- Trade spend intensity and distributor inventory volatility
Counterarguments
- Distribution advantages are shared by other large suppliers
- In the U.S., three-tier rules limit producer control regardless of scale
Rest of Portfolio (Other Branded Spirits)
Other premium spirits and liqueurs (rum, gin, liqueurs, and other categories)
Revenue share derived from FY2025 net sales by product category (Rest of Portfolio $292m of $3,975m total) in the FY2025 Form 10-K.
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
A portfolio of niche premium brands can sustain pricing in specific segments, but these brands generally face faster competitive imitation and higher volatility than the Jack Daniel's franchise.
Erosion risks
- Brand fragmentation and rapid switching in smaller categories
- Higher sensitivity to regional macro conditions (e.g., Europe premium demand)
- Portfolio churn (acquisitions/divestitures) disrupting continuity
Leading indicators
- Net sales and depletion trends for key acquired brands (e.g., Gin Mare, Diplomatico)
- Gross margin by portfolio and mix shift toward premium SKUs
- Distribution expansion in priority markets
Counterarguments
- Many categories are crowded and trend-driven; brand durability can be limited
- Smaller brands may not have scale advantages in marketing
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Owned distribution and established partner relationships help place and scale smaller portfolio brands in priority markets, though control varies by jurisdiction.
Erosion risks
- Route-to-consumer transitions causing temporary disruption
- Retailer consolidation reducing shelf access for smaller brands
Leading indicators
- Numeric distribution and velocities for portfolio brands in owned-distribution markets
- Trade spend requirements and slotting costs
Counterarguments
- Distributors prioritize the highest-velocity brands; smaller brands can lose attention
- Competitors can buy or build similar niche brands
Non-branded and Bulk
Non-branded bulk spirits, used barrels, and contract bottling services
Revenue share derived from FY2025 net sales by product category (Non-branded and bulk $102m of $3,975m total) in the FY2025 Form 10-K.
Scope Economies
Supply
Scope Economies
Strength: 2/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 2/5 · 2 evidence
Byproduct and bulk channels monetize scale from the core spirits operations (e.g., used barrels), but markets are largely price-driven and competitively supplied.
Erosion risks
- Commodity price declines for barrels and bulk spirits
- Excess industry capacity driving margin compression
- Operational disruptions at core distilleries reducing byproduct volumes
Leading indicators
- Used barrel pricing and demand indicators
- Bulk spirit spot pricing and contract rates
- Production volumes in core whiskey operations (byproduct supply)
Counterarguments
- Low differentiation; competitors can supply similar bulk products
- Customer switching costs are low in bulk markets
Evidence
The most important and iconic brand in our portfolio is Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, the #1 selling American whiskey in the world.
Direct statement of global leadership for the core whiskey brand, supporting durable consumer awareness and trust.
Jack Daniel's is an iconic global trademark with a loyal consumer fan base.
Highlights a large installed consumer base and loyalty around the flagship whiskey trademark.
Our vision in marketing is to be the best brand-builder in the industry.
Supports the claim that continued marketing investment is a deliberate strategy to maintain brand equity.
As of May 1, 2025, we owned and operated 17 distribution companies in 18 countries.
Shows meaningful owned-distribution scale, which can improve execution and bargaining position in key markets.
In these owned-distribution markets, and in a large portion of the Travel Retail channel, we sell our products directly to retailers or wholesalers.
Direct selling where permitted strengthens control of go-to-market and reduces reliance on intermediaries.
Showing 5 of 16 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Shifts in consumer preferences away from spirits or toward lower-priced offerings
- Brand reputation damage (quality incident, counterfeits, negative publicity)
- Increased competitive intensity from large peers and craft brands
- Regulatory/tax changes affecting pricing or availability
- Distributor and retailer consolidation increases counterparty bargaining power
- Execution risk when transitioning markets to owned distribution
Leading indicators
- Global depletions/volumes for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey (JDTW) and key extensions
- Price/mix vs volume trends in whiskey
- On-premise placements and menu velocity for flagship expressions
- Brand health metrics (awareness, consideration) and share of voice
- Performance of newly transitioned owned-distribution markets (sales disruption vs acceleration)
- Distributor inventory swings vs consumer depletions
Curation & Accuracy
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