VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
PRICE: 5 CENTS
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Booking Holdings Inc.
BKNG · NASDAQ Global Select Market
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
Booking Holdings (BKNG) is a global online travel platform whose OTC brands--Booking.com, Priceline and Agoda--generate the vast majority of revenue through merchant (payment-facilitated) and agency (commission) reservation models. Its core moats are a large two-sided marketplace, trusted brands with growing direct traffic/mobile usage, and merchant-model customer prepayments (deferred merchant bookings) that support working capital. Smaller non-OTC brands (KAYAK and OpenTable) monetize via advertising/referrals and restaurant reservation/management fees in more competitive markets. Key risks include intense competition (including Google's travel products), regulatory constraints (e.g., EU DMA/DSA), and supplier efforts to push travelers toward direct booking channels.
Primary segment
OTC online travel reservations (Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda)
Market structure
Oligopoly
Market share
23%-31% (implied)
HHI: —
Coverage
2 segments · 5 tags
Updated 2025-12-25
Segments
OTC online travel reservations (Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda)
Online travel agency (OTA) reservation platforms
Revenue
95.5%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
23%-31% (implied)
Peers
Metasearch & restaurant reservations (KAYAK, OpenTable)
Travel metasearch advertising and online restaurant reservation platforms
Revenue
4.5%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
OTC online travel reservations (Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda)
Online travel agency (OTA) reservation platforms
This segment combines merchant + agency revenues (95.48% of 2024 revenue). 2024 OTC metrics: 1,144M room nights, 83M rental car days, 49M airline tickets; total gross bookings $165.58B with an ongoing shift from agency to merchant at Booking.com.
Two Sided Network
Network
Two Sided Network
Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 3 evidence
Large two-sided marketplace: broad supply (millions of properties) attracts travelers; traveler demand and marketing reach attract more supply/partners.
Erosion risks
- Supplier pushback (direct booking incentives, reduced OTA allocation)
- Regulatory limits on platform practices (e.g., DMA/DSA obligations)
- Traffic re-routing by large tech platforms/search
Leading indicators
- Active properties and room nights growth
- Direct traffic share / marketing as % of gross bookings
- Repeat booking and loyalty-program engagement
Counterarguments
- Consumers and hotels can multi-home across OTAs; switching costs are low
- Large tech platforms (e.g., Google travel products) can intermediate discovery
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Recognized travel brands and emphasis on trust improve conversion and reduce reliance on paid acquisition over time.
Erosion risks
- Brand damage from poor customer service during disruptions
- Fraud/scams or inconsistent property quality impacting trust
Leading indicators
- Direct vs paid traffic mix
- App usage and repeat booking rates
Counterarguments
- Price comparison and metasearch can reduce brand-driven loyalty
- Alternative platforms (e.g., Airbnb) can win loyalty in specific trip types
Habit Default
Demand
Habit Default
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Growing direct traffic and mobile usage suggest 'default' behavior for repeat travelers; reduces marginal acquisition cost versus paid search over time.
Erosion risks
- Higher search ad auctions / changes in search algorithms increase paid acquisition dependence
- Consumer switching due to better bundles/UX elsewhere
Leading indicators
- Direct bookings share trend
- Marketing spend efficiency (ROI) and CAC trends
Counterarguments
- Travel purchase frequency is low; defaults are weaker than in daily-use apps
- Users often shop across multiple sites for price; loyalty is limited
Scope Economies
Supply
Scope Economies
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Cross-vertical 'Connected Trip' strategy and shared capabilities across brands (payments, loyalty, support) can improve conversion and reduce duplicated platform costs.
Erosion risks
- Execution risk integrating verticals and workflows
- Regulatory constraints on cross-use of data (e.g., DMA) can limit synergy
Leading indicators
- Cross-sell/attachment rates (flights, rental cars, attractions with stays)
- Payments platform adoption across brands
Counterarguments
- Best-of-breed point solutions may outperform integrated bundles
- Suppliers can bundle directly; super-apps can offer end-to-end trips
Float Prepayment
Financial
Float Prepayment
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Merchant bookings collect traveler payments in advance; deferred merchant bookings provide meaningful customer prepayment/float that can support working capital.
Erosion risks
- Higher cancellation/refund rates can quickly reverse float
- Payment regulation/escrow rules or supplier term tightening
- Fraud/chargebacks increase working-capital needs
Leading indicators
- Deferred merchant bookings balance trend
- Cancellation/refund and chargeback trends
Counterarguments
- Competing OTAs also run merchant models; float is not unique
- Float is a liability during demand shocks (refund waves)
Metasearch & restaurant reservations (KAYAK, OpenTable)
Travel metasearch advertising and online restaurant reservation platforms
This segment corresponds to 'advertising and other revenues' (4.52% of 2024 revenue). KAYAK search queries and OpenTable restaurant reservations are tracked separately from OTC 'gross bookings' in company reporting.
Two Sided Network
Network
Two Sided Network
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
KAYAK monetizes consumer travel search via referrals/ads from OTAs and travel providers; OpenTable connects diners and restaurants and monetizes per diner seated plus SaaS subscriptions.
Erosion risks
- Travel discovery shifting to Google and other large platforms/AI assistants
- Restaurant reservation competition (Resy, Yelp and others) and multi-homing
Leading indicators
- KAYAK query volume and referral yield
- OpenTable seated diners and restaurant subscription retention
Counterarguments
- Low switching costs for consumers; search is highly substitutable
- Google can bundle metasearch into core search/maps, limiting traffic to third parties
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
KAYAK and OpenTable are established consumer brands; brand recognition supports top-of-funnel traffic and restaurant adoption in key markets.
Erosion risks
- Brand dilution if results quality/price transparency deteriorate
- Platform disintermediation by super-apps, AI agents, and search engines
Leading indicators
- Direct traffic/app usage trends for KAYAK and OpenTable
- Restaurant churn and diner repeat rates
Counterarguments
- Brand alone is weak where users are price-driven and shop multiple sites
- Restaurants can adopt competing reservation/CRM stacks with limited switching friction
Evidence
Booking.com is the world's leading brand for booking online accommodation reservations, based on room nights booked.
Supports leadership in online accommodation reservations.
At December 31, 2024, Booking.com offered accommodation reservation services for approximately 4.0 million properties.
Supports depth/breadth of supply (inventory) on the marketplace.
We believe [partners] benefit ... by increasing their distribution channels, demand, profile and reputation...
Describes mutual-benefit dynamics typical of a two-sided platform.
...make our brands the most trusted and convenient platforms in travel...
Explicitly frames trust as a strategic pillar.
We have established widely used and recognized e-commerce brands through marketing campaigns...
Supports brand strength and ongoing brand investment.
Showing 5 of 16 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Supplier pushback (direct booking incentives, reduced OTA allocation)
- Regulatory limits on platform practices (e.g., DMA/DSA obligations)
- Traffic re-routing by large tech platforms/search
- Brand damage from poor customer service during disruptions
- Fraud/scams or inconsistent property quality impacting trust
- Higher search ad auctions / changes in search algorithms increase paid acquisition dependence
Leading indicators
- Active properties and room nights growth
- Direct traffic share / marketing as % of gross bookings
- Repeat booking and loyalty-program engagement
- Direct vs paid traffic mix
- App usage and repeat booking rates
- Direct bookings share trend
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.