VOL. XCIV, NO. 247

★ FINANCIAL TOOLS & SERVICES DIRECTORY ★

PRICE: 5 CENTS

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Tool Comparison

CME FedWatch Tool vs Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury) comparison

Compare pricing, supported platforms, categories, and standout capabilities to decide which tool fits your workflow.

Quick takeaways

CME FedWatch Tool adds Central Bank Watcher, and Calendar coverage that Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury) skips.

Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury) includes Yield Curves, Scores, Market Sentiment, Fund Holdings, and Blogs categories that CME FedWatch Tool omits.

In depth comparison

CME FedWatch Tool

cmegroup.com

Official CME probabilities for upcoming FOMC decisions, derived from 30‑Day Fed Funds (ZQ) futures. Web tool provides meeting‑by‑meeting probability matrices, comparisons over time, a historical download, and a Dot Plot view. A paid REST API is available for programmatic access. CME documents the probability‑tree methodology clearly; API snapshots update on business days at ~01:45 UTC. Media usage asks attribution to “CME FedWatch.”

Platforms

WebAPI

Pricing

FreeSubscription

Quick highlights

Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures.
Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel.
Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view.
One‑click PDF generation of the current page and Excel downloads for historical probabilities.
Transparent methodology: unconditional probabilities via a binary probability tree built from implied EFFR, assuming 25 bp step sizes.

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Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury)

financialresearch.gov

U.S. Treasury’s OFR publishes free, methods‑backed monitors and datasets (Short‑term Funding Monitor, U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor, Bank Systemic Risk Monitor, and the daily OFR Financial Stress Index). STFM and HFM provide open JSON APIs (no keys), CSV downloads are available from some monitors. Updates are end‑of‑day with documented lags (e.g., FSI ~T+2 business days; repo series T+1/T+2 depending on segment).

Platforms

WebAPI

Pricing

Free

Quick highlights

Short‑term Funding Monitor (STFM): curated repo/CP/CD/FF market charts plus **open REST API** (JSON, HTTPS) with series search, metadata, and spread endpoints; no tokens required.
U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor: interactive holdings transparency by asset type, counterparty, country; per‑chart **CSV download**.
Hedge Fund Monitor (HFM): aggregated Form PF and related series via an **open REST API** (JSON) organized by datasets and mnemonics.
OFR Financial Stress Index (FSI): **daily** global market‑based stress index built from 33 variables; FSI values publish with a ~**two‑business‑day** lag.
Bank Systemic Risk Monitor: G‑SIB scores/surcharges, OFR Contagion Index, leverage/assets/equity; clear notes on refresh cadence (e.g., Basel scores annually, contagion index quarterly).

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Where they differ

CME FedWatch Tool

Distinct strengths include:

Central Bank Watcher Calendar

Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures.
Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel.
Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view.
One‑click PDF generation of the current page and Excel downloads for historical probabilities.

Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury)

Distinct strengths include:

Yield Curves Scores Market Sentiment Fund Holdings Blogs

Short‑term Funding Monitor (STFM): curated repo/CP/CD/FF market charts plus **open REST API** (JSON, HTTPS) with series search, metadata, and spread endpoints; no tokens required.
U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor: interactive holdings transparency by asset type, counterparty, country; per‑chart **CSV download**.
Hedge Fund Monitor (HFM): aggregated Form PF and related series via an **open REST API** (JSON) organized by datasets and mnemonics.
OFR Financial Stress Index (FSI): **daily** global market‑based stress index built from 33 variables; FSI values publish with a ~**two‑business‑day** lag.

Feature-by-feature breakdown

Attribute	CME FedWatch Tool	Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury)
Categories Which research workflows each platform targets	Shared: Interest Rates, Data APIs, APIs & SDKs, Data Visualizations Unique: Central Bank Watcher, Calendar	Shared: Interest Rates, Data APIs, APIs & SDKs, Data Visualizations Unique: Yield Curves, Scores, Market Sentiment, Fund Holdings, Blogs
Asset types Supported asset classes and universes	Futures	Bonds, Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds
Experience levels Who each product is built for	Beginner, Intermediate, Advanced	Beginner, Intermediate, Advanced
Platforms Where you can access the product	Web, API	Web, API
Pricing High-level pricing models	Free, Subscription	Free
Key features Core capabilities called out by each vendor	Unique Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures. Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel. Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view. One‑click PDF generation of the current page and Excel downloads for historical probabilities. Transparent methodology: unconditional probabilities via a binary probability tree built from implied EFFR, assuming 25 bp step sizes. FedWatch REST API (OAuth2) with endpoints for /forecasts and /meetings (future/history); extended history available.	Unique Short‑term Funding Monitor (STFM): curated repo/CP/CD/FF market charts plus open REST API (JSON, HTTPS) with series search, metadata, and spread endpoints; no tokens required. U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor: interactive holdings transparency by asset type, counterparty, country; per‑chart CSV download. Hedge Fund Monitor (HFM): aggregated Form PF and related series via an open REST API (JSON) organized by datasets and mnemonics. OFR Financial Stress Index (FSI): daily global market‑based stress index built from 33 variables; FSI values publish with a ~two‑business‑day lag. Bank Systemic Risk Monitor: G‑SIB scores/surcharges, OFR Contagion Index, leverage/assets/equity; clear notes on refresh cadence (e.g., Basel scores annually, contagion index quarterly). U.S. Repo Markets Data Release: preliminary series posted most weekdays (~3 p.m. ET) with T+1 (cleared) and T+2 (tri‑party) lags; quarterly validated ‘final’ releases.
Tested Verified by hands-on testing inside Find My Moat	Not yet	Not yet
Editor pick Featured inside curated shortlists	Standard listing	Standard listing

Frequently Asked Questions

Which workflows do CME FedWatch Tool and Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury) both support?

Both platforms cover Interest Rates, Data APIs, APIs & SDKs, and Data Visualizations workflows, so you can research those use cases in either tool before digging into the feature differences below.

Do CME FedWatch Tool and Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury) require subscriptions?

Both CME FedWatch Tool and Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury) keep freemium access with optional paid upgrades, so you can trial each platform before committing.

How can you access CME FedWatch Tool and Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury)?

Both CME FedWatch Tool and Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury) prioritize web or desktop access. Investors wanting a mobile-first workflow may need to rely on responsive web views.

What unique strengths set the two platforms apart?

CME FedWatch Tool differentiates itself with Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures., Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel., and Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view., whereas Office of Financial Research (U.S. Treasury) stands out for Short‑term Funding Monitor (STFM): curated repo/CP/CD/FF market charts plus **open REST API** (JSON, HTTPS) with series search, metadata, and spread endpoints; no tokens required., U.S. Money Market Fund Monitor: interactive holdings transparency by asset type, counterparty, country; per‑chart **CSV download**., and Hedge Fund Monitor (HFM): aggregated Form PF and related series via an **open REST API** (JSON) organized by datasets and mnemonics..

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