VOL. XCIV, NO. 247

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Friday, December 26, 2025

NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA · Nasdaq Stock Market

Market cap (USD)
SectorTechnology
CountryUS
Data as of
Moat score
97/ 100

Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.

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Overview

NVIDIA is primarily a data center accelerated computing company: ~88% of FY2025 revenue came from Data Center, driven by AI compute and networking platforms. Its core moat is the CUDA-based full-stack software ecosystem and deep integrations, reinforced by broad availability across major server makers/cloud providers and millions of developers. Scale also helps NVIDIA secure leading-edge foundry/packaging and memory capacity via prepayments and long-lead planning. Gaming remains the largest secondary business with strong RTX/DLSS ecosystem effects, while Professional Visualization and Automotive are smaller, more competitive adjacencies.

Primary segment

Data Center

Market structure

Quasi-Monopoly

Market share

78%-85% (estimated)

HHI:

Coverage

5 segments · 6 tags

Updated 2025-12-26

Segments

Data Center

Data center accelerated computing (AI GPUs, systems, and networking)

Revenue

88.3%

Structure

Quasi-Monopoly

Pricing

strong

Share

78%-85% (estimated)

Peers

AMDINTCAVGOMRVL+2

Gaming

Discrete GPUs and gaming platforms for PC gaming (add-in boards, notebooks, and cloud gaming)

Revenue

8.7%

Structure

Duopoly

Pricing

moderate

Share

92% (reported)

Peers

AMDINTC

Professional Visualization

Workstation GPUs and professional 3D/visualization platforms (RTX + Omniverse)

Revenue

1.4%

Structure

Oligopoly

Pricing

strong

Share

Peers

AMD

Automotive

Automotive AI compute platforms (ADAS/AV and infotainment) from cloud training to in-vehicle deployment

Revenue

1.3%

Structure

Competitive

Pricing

weak

Share

Peers

QCOMMBLYTSLA

OEM & Other

OEM component sales and other revenue (residual category)

Revenue

0.3%

Structure

Competitive

Pricing

none

Share

Peers

Moat Claims

Data Center

Data center accelerated computing (AI GPUs, systems, and networking)

FY2025 revenue by end market (Form 10-K): Data Center $115,186M of $130,497M total (table is in $ millions). Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581025000023/nvda-20250126.htm

Quasi-Monopoly

Data Workflow Lockin

Demand

Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence

CUDA programming model + extensive libraries/SDKs/APIs create software/workflow switching costs for AI and accelerated-computing workloads.

Erosion risks

  • Framework abstraction reduces CUDA-specific code
  • ROCm and open-source toolchains improve portability
  • Hyperscalers push software layers for custom accelerators

Leading indicators

  • ROCm/alternative backend adoption in major AI frameworks
  • CUDA developer count and toolkit adoption trend
  • Production deployments of large models on non-NVIDIA accelerators at hyperscalers

Counterarguments

  • Many AI users operate at the framework level (e.g., PyTorch), reducing direct CUDA dependency
  • Large customers can absorb porting costs when economics justify a switch

Ecosystem Complements

Network

Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence

Broad platform availability across server OEMs/CSPs plus a large developer base and partner ecosystem compounds adoption and integration.

Erosion risks

  • Hyperscalers increase investment in custom ASICs
  • Open interconnect standards reduce proprietary platform advantages
  • Competitors close performance gaps and improve software

Leading indicators

  • Cloud instance availability for non-NVIDIA accelerators
  • Hyperscaler capex allocation to custom ASIC vs GPUs
  • Growth in third-party software stacks targeting non-NVIDIA accelerators

Counterarguments

  • Ecosystem strength depends on continued performance leadership and reliable supply
  • Big tech can steer developer tooling toward in-house accelerators

Capacity Moat

Supply

Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 3 evidence

Scale enables NVIDIA to secure leading-edge wafer, advanced packaging, and memory supply via prepayments/capacity agreements-important when supply is constrained.

Erosion risks

  • Foundry/packaging capacity expansions reduce scarcity
  • Suppliers prioritize other large customers or diversify allocation
  • Geopolitical disruption in Asia-Pacific supply chain

Leading indicators

  • Advanced packaging/HBM lead times and industry capacity additions
  • NVIDIA disclosed prepayment/capacity commitment trends
  • Competitor shipment growth relative to NVIDIA in AI accelerators

Counterarguments

  • Capacity is not exclusive; suppliers also serve competitors
  • If demand normalizes, capacity advantage may fade quickly

Gaming

Discrete GPUs and gaming platforms for PC gaming (add-in boards, notebooks, and cloud gaming)

FY2025 revenue by end market (Form 10-K): Gaming $11,350M of $130,497M total (table is in $ millions). Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581025000023/nvda-20250126.htm

Duopoly

Ecosystem Complements

Network

Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence

Large installed base and broad RTX/DLSS application/game support incentivize developers to optimize for NVIDIA features, reinforcing adoption.

Erosion risks

  • Competitors gain share with price/performance improvements
  • Console and cloud gaming reduce discrete GPU demand
  • Standard graphics APIs reduce reliance on vendor-specific features

Leading indicators

  • Discrete GPU share trends (JPR, Steam surveys)
  • Adoption rate of RTX/DLSS features in new game launches
  • GeForce NOW subscriber and usage growth

Counterarguments

  • Game developers often prioritize cross-vendor standards (DirectX/Vulkan), making proprietary features optional
  • Consumer demand is cyclical and price-sensitive

Operational Excellence

Supply

Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence

Longstanding software/driver optimization and feature cadence (e.g., RTX, DLSS, GeForce Experience) improves performance and user experience beyond raw hardware.

Erosion risks

  • Driver/software differentiation narrows as competitors improve
  • More workloads shift to generic upscaling and open standards

Leading indicators

  • Relative performance-per-watt leadership across GPU generations
  • User-reported driver stability metrics and review trends

Counterarguments

  • Software advantages can be copied over time
  • AIB/OEM channels can shift marketing focus based on margins and availability

Professional Visualization

Workstation GPUs and professional 3D/visualization platforms (RTX + Omniverse)

FY2025 revenue by end market (Form 10-K): Professional Visualization $1,878M of $130,497M total (table is in $ millions). Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581025000023/nvda-20250126.htm

Oligopoly

Design In Qualification

Demand

Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence

ISV optimization and certification for critical professional workflows increases qualification friction and switching costs for workstation users.

Erosion risks

  • ISVs expand optimization/certification for competing GPUs
  • Cloud-based rendering/workstations reduce local GPU dependency

Leading indicators

  • Breadth of ISV certifications for NVIDIA vs competitors
  • Workstation GPU shipment share and average selling prices

Counterarguments

  • Some professional users can trade down to cheaper GPUs if performance needs are met
  • Segment is smaller and can be deprioritized versus Data Center

Ecosystem Complements

Network

Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence

RTX support across major 3D design and content creation applications plus Omniverse ecosystem reinforces platform preference.

Erosion risks

  • Competitors improve ray tracing + AI tooling
  • Open standards reduce differentiation of graphics features

Leading indicators

  • Omniverse enterprise subscription adoption
  • ISV feature releases that prioritize competing GPU backends

Counterarguments

  • Graphics workloads rely on standard APIs; differentiation may be less sticky than CUDA in AI

Automotive

Automotive AI compute platforms (ADAS/AV and infotainment) from cloud training to in-vehicle deployment

FY2025 revenue by end market (Form 10-K): Automotive $1,694M of $130,497M total (table is in $ millions). Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581025000023/nvda-20250126.htm

Competitive

Suite Bundling

Demand

Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence

End-to-end DRIVE platform bundles in-vehicle compute, OS, modular software stack, and simulation-reducing integration work for OEMs and enabling OTA feature upgrades.

Erosion risks

  • Automakers build in-house stacks or multi-source vendors
  • Safety/regulatory delays slow AV rollouts
  • Strong competition from automotive-focused silicon vendors

Leading indicators

  • Number/size of announced DRIVE design wins
  • Automotive segment revenue growth and backlog indicators
  • Regulatory progress and autonomy adoption milestones

Counterarguments

  • Auto programs are long-cycle and price-sensitive; OEMs can switch on new vehicle platforms
  • Competitive solutions exist with strong OEM relationships and automotive-grade roadmaps

Design In Qualification

Demand

Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence

Automotive-grade safety and ecosystem qualification can create switching friction once a platform is designed into a vehicle program.

Erosion risks

  • OEMs standardize on alternative compute platforms
  • Platform fragmentation across regions and regulations

Leading indicators

  • Automotive platform adoption by tier-1 suppliers
  • Certification milestones and safety compliance updates

Counterarguments

  • Qualification is meaningful but not permanent; new vehicle generations can reset platform choices

OEM & Other

OEM component sales and other revenue (residual category)

FY2025 revenue by end market (Form 10-K): OEM and Other $389M of $130,497M total (table is in $ millions). Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581025000023/nvda-20250126.htm

Competitive

Residual / non-core revenue

Demand

Strength: 1/5 · Durability: fragile · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence

This bucket is small and mixed; it is not primarily driven by a durable moat and can fluctuate based on channel dynamics and one-off items.

Treated as non-core: OEM & Other is a very small share of total revenue in FY2025.

Erosion risks

  • Channel inventory swings
  • Pricing pressure in commoditized OEM channels

Leading indicators

  • OEM & Other revenue trend
  • Channel inventory indicators

Counterarguments

  • No meaningful moat is expected for this residual category

Evidence

sec_filing
NVIDIA FY2025 Form 10-K (fiscal year ended Jan 26, 2025)

...including the CUDA parallel programming model, the CUDA-X collection of acceleration libraries, APIs, SDKs, and domain-specific application frameworks.

Direct support for the 'software stack + developer workflow' lock-in mechanism.

industry_report
OECD - Competition in Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure (AI supply chain section)

CUDA has in essence become the industry standard

Third-party characterization of CUDA as a standard layer, reinforcing portability/switching-cost dynamics.

sec_filing
NVIDIA FY2025 Form 10-K (ecosystem scale)

Our computing platforms are available from virtually every major server maker and CSP, as well as on our own AI supercomputers.

Shows broad platform distribution across the supply chain (OEMs/CSPs), reinforcing ecosystem complements.

sec_filing
NVIDIA FY2025 Form 10-K (developer ecosystem)

There are over 5.9 million developers worldwide using CUDA and our other software tools...

Quantifies developer scale supporting network/complement effects.

sec_filing
NVIDIA FY2025 Form 10-K (supply chain disclosures)

We utilize foundries, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, or TSMC, and Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., or Samsung, to produce our semiconductor wafers.

Identifies critical upstream dependencies relevant to capacity constraints (foundry).

Showing 5 of 19 sources.

Risks & Indicators

Erosion risks

  • Framework abstraction reduces CUDA-specific code
  • ROCm and open-source toolchains improve portability
  • Hyperscalers push software layers for custom accelerators
  • Hyperscalers increase investment in custom ASICs
  • Open interconnect standards reduce proprietary platform advantages
  • Competitors close performance gaps and improve software

Leading indicators

  • ROCm/alternative backend adoption in major AI frameworks
  • CUDA developer count and toolkit adoption trend
  • Production deployments of large models on non-NVIDIA accelerators at hyperscalers
  • Cloud instance availability for non-NVIDIA accelerators
  • Hyperscaler capex allocation to custom ASIC vs GPUs
  • Growth in third-party software stacks targeting non-NVIDIA accelerators
Created 2025-12-26
Updated 2025-12-26

Curation & Accuracy

This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).

Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.