VOL. XCIV, NO. 247

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Friday, December 26, 2025

Tool Comparison

CME FedWatch Tool vs Total Real Returns comparison

Compare pricing, supported platforms, categories, and standout capabilities to decide which tool fits your workflow.

Quick takeaways

CME FedWatch Tool adds Central Bank Watcher, Interest Rates, Data APIs, APIs & SDKs, and Calendar coverage that Total Real Returns skips.

Total Real Returns includes Risk Metrics categories that CME FedWatch Tool omits.

In depth comparison

CME FedWatch Tool

cmegroup.com

Official CME probabilities for upcoming FOMC decisions, derived from 30‑Day Fed Funds (ZQ) futures. Web tool provides meeting‑by‑meeting probability matrices, comparisons over time, a historical download, and a Dot Plot view. A paid REST API is available for programmatic access. CME documents the probability‑tree methodology clearly; API snapshots update on business days at ~01:45 UTC. Media usage asks attribution to “CME FedWatch.”

Platforms

WebAPI

Pricing

FreeSubscription

Quick highlights

Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures.
Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel.
Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view.
One‑click PDF generation of the current page and Excel downloads for historical probabilities.
Transparent methodology: unconditional probabilities via a binary probability tree built from implied EFFR, assuming 25 bp step sizes.

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Total Real Returns

totalrealreturns.com

Web tool for CPI-U inflation-adjusted ("real") and nominal total return charts with dividends reinvested, plus returns tables and drawdowns (EOD; daily updates ~8pm ET).

Platforms

Web

Pricing

Free

Quick highlights

CPI-U inflation-adjusted "Total Real Return" charts with dividends reinvested (purchasing-power view).
Toggle inflation adjustment on/off (real vs. nominal dollars) on chart pages.
Compare multiple symbols on a single chart by entering comma-separated tickers.
Controls for custom date ranges and normalization modes (Start=1, End=1, IPO=1, Off).
Per-symbol performance breakdown includes overall return, exponential trendline/annualized rates (with R^2), growth of $10,000, annual returns, and drawdowns.

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Where they differ

CME FedWatch Tool

Distinct strengths include:

Central Bank Watcher Interest Rates Data APIs APIs & SDKs Calendar

Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures.
Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel.
Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view.
One‑click PDF generation of the current page and Excel downloads for historical probabilities.

Total Real Returns

Distinct strengths include:

Risk Metrics

CPI-U inflation-adjusted "Total Real Return" charts with dividends reinvested (purchasing-power view).
Toggle inflation adjustment on/off (real vs. nominal dollars) on chart pages.
Compare multiple symbols on a single chart by entering comma-separated tickers.
Controls for custom date ranges and normalization modes (Start=1, End=1, IPO=1, Off).

Feature-by-feature breakdown

Attribute	CME FedWatch Tool	Total Real Returns
Categories Which research workflows each platform targets	Shared: Data Visualizations Unique: Central Bank Watcher, Interest Rates, Data APIs, APIs & SDKs, Calendar	Shared: Data Visualizations Unique: Risk Metrics
Asset types Supported asset classes and universes	Futures	Stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds, Currencies
Experience levels Who each product is built for	Beginner, Intermediate, Advanced	Beginner, Intermediate
Platforms Where you can access the product	Web, API	Web
Pricing High-level pricing models	Free, Subscription	Free
Key features Core capabilities called out by each vendor	Unique Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures. Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel. Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view. One‑click PDF generation of the current page and Excel downloads for historical probabilities. Transparent methodology: unconditional probabilities via a binary probability tree built from implied EFFR, assuming 25 bp step sizes. FedWatch REST API (OAuth2) with endpoints for /forecasts and /meetings (future/history); extended history available.	Unique CPI-U inflation-adjusted "Total Real Return" charts with dividends reinvested (purchasing-power view). Toggle inflation adjustment on/off (real vs. nominal dollars) on chart pages. Compare multiple symbols on a single chart by entering comma-separated tickers. Controls for custom date ranges and normalization modes (Start=1, End=1, IPO=1, Off). Per-symbol performance breakdown includes overall return, exponential trendline/annualized rates (with R^2), growth of $10,000, annual returns, and drawdowns. Instrument pages include common stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and a USDOLLAR cash/currency series.
Tested Verified by hands-on testing inside Find My Moat	Not yet	Not yet
Editor pick Featured inside curated shortlists	Standard listing	Standard listing

Frequently Asked Questions

Which workflows do CME FedWatch Tool and Total Real Returns both support?

Both platforms cover Data Visualizations workflows, so you can research those use cases in either tool before digging into the feature differences below.

Do CME FedWatch Tool and Total Real Returns require subscriptions?

Both CME FedWatch Tool and Total Real Returns keep freemium access with optional paid upgrades, so you can trial each platform before committing.

How can you access CME FedWatch Tool and Total Real Returns?

Both CME FedWatch Tool and Total Real Returns prioritize web or desktop access. Investors wanting a mobile-first workflow may need to rely on responsive web views.

What unique strengths set the two platforms apart?

CME FedWatch Tool differentiates itself with Meeting‑by‑meeting probabilities of FOMC target‑rate outcomes implied by Fed Funds futures., Compare view (current vs 1‑day/1‑week/1‑month ago) and Historical panel., and Fed ‘Dot Plot’ chart plus table view., whereas Total Real Returns stands out for CPI-U inflation-adjusted "Total Real Return" charts with dividends reinvested (purchasing-power view)., Toggle inflation adjustment on/off (real vs. nominal dollars) on chart pages., and Compare multiple symbols on a single chart by entering comma-separated tickers..

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