VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
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Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd.
000568.SZ · Shenzhen Stock Exchange
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is a Chinese baijiu producer listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (000568) whose reported operating revenue is overwhelmingly baijiu. In H1 2025, mid- and high-end baijiu represented 91.45% of operating revenue and carried very high gross margins, indicating strong premium pricing power. The core moat in premium products is brand trust plus heritage production assets (National Cellar 1573 cellars and traditional brewing technique) that the company describes as hard to replicate, supported by a large authorized distributor network and payment-before-delivery terms. Key risks include premium demand cycles, policy pressure on gifting/banquet consumption, channel de-stocking, and intense competition from other leading baijiu brands.
Primary segment
Mid- and high-end baijiu
Market structure
Oligopoly
Market share
—
HHI: —
Coverage
2 segments · 5 tags
Updated 2025-12-30
Segments
Mid- and high-end baijiu
Premium baijiu (strong-aroma) in China
Revenue
91.5%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
strong
Share
—
Peers
Other baijiu (mainstream/value)
Mainstream/value baijiu (primarily strong-aroma) in China
Revenue
8.2%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
Mid- and high-end baijiu
Premium baijiu (strong-aroma) in China
Revenue share reflects H1 2025 operating revenue breakdown by product in the 2025 Interim Report (mid/high-end baijiu 91.45% of operating revenue).
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Company frames brand as a core resource and positions National Cellar 1573 as a world-famous high-end brand; supports premium willingness-to-pay.
Erosion risks
- Premium demand volatility from macro downturns and consumer trade-down
- Policy/anti-corruption pressure on gifting and banquet spending
- Brand dilution from excessive discounting or channel stuffing
Leading indicators
- Gross margin and realized ASP trend
- Channel inventory / distributor order cadence
- Secondary-market price stability for key SKUs
Counterarguments
- High-end baijiu buyers can switch to other prestige brands (e.g., Moutai, Wuliangye)
- Marketing spend can temporarily prop up brand momentum; long-term differentiation may narrow
Learning Curve Yield
Supply
Learning Curve Yield
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Aged cellars and a time-honored brewing technique (recognized as cultural heritage) support product quality consistency that is difficult to replicate quickly.
Erosion risks
- Competitors improve quality through aging/storage investment and process innovation
- Environmental or safety regulation constraining production sites or expansions
- Quality incidents undermining perceived authenticity
Leading indicators
- Quality awards / tasting outcomes and defect/recall incidents
- Capacity and storage expansion vs demand (risk of oversupply)
- Regulatory actions affecting alcohol production facilities
Counterarguments
- Other major baijiu producers also have old cellars and heritage; process differentiation may be less visible to consumers
- Brand and distribution may matter more than production process for purchase decisions
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Large authorized distributor network plus growing online channels supports reach and shelf presence in a fragmented retail landscape.
Erosion risks
- Channel conflict as online sales expand vs offline distributors
- Distributor de-stocking during demand slowdowns
- Retail consolidation increasing buyer power
Leading indicators
- Distributor count trend and churn
- Online sales mix and growth
- Accounts receivable days and contract liability trends
Counterarguments
- Distribution networks are replicable; rival brands also maintain extensive distributor coverage
- Strongest demand signals come from consumers; channels follow rather than lead
Float Prepayment
Financial
Float Prepayment
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Payment-before-delivery terms with distributors can create working-capital float and reduce credit risk, especially when brands have bargaining power.
Erosion risks
- Weaker demand shifts bargaining power to distributors/retailers, reducing prepayment terms
- Regulatory or contract changes forcing looser settlement terms
Leading indicators
- Contract liabilities balance trend
- Accounts receivable balance trend
- Distributor inventory and sell-through
Counterarguments
- Many top baijiu brands also operate on prepayment terms; not fully differentiating
- Contract liabilities can fall quickly if channel demand weakens
Other baijiu (mainstream/value)
Mainstream/value baijiu (primarily strong-aroma) in China
Revenue share reflects H1 2025 operating revenue breakdown by product in the 2025 Interim Report (Other baijiu 8.20% of operating revenue).
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
The broader Luzhou Laojiao brand system supports consumer recognition across price tiers, though differentiation is weaker than in premium.
Erosion risks
- Price competition and promotional intensity in mass segments
- Trade-down to cheaper local brands during downturns
Leading indicators
- Sales volumes by tier
- Promo intensity and channel discounts
Counterarguments
- Switching costs are low; many regional brands are good enough substitutes
- Brand premium is harder to sustain at low-to-mid price points
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Authorized distribution and omnichannel reach can support volume placement in lower-tier markets and online.
Erosion risks
- Distributor pushback if margins compress
- Online platforms increase fees or prioritize competing brands
Leading indicators
- Distributor count and revenue per distributor
- Online sales growth and customer acquisition cost
Counterarguments
- Distribution is not exclusive; competitors can access the same e-commerce platforms and many of the same wholesalers
Capex Knowhow Scale
Supply
Capex Knowhow Scale
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Large-scale production and storage capacity can support unit economics and supply reliability across tiers, but peers can also invest.
Erosion risks
- Industry capacity expansion leading to oversupply and price pressure
- Capital intensity without commensurate demand growth
Leading indicators
- Industry inventory and price trends
- Company capex vs volume growth
- Utilization and finished goods inventory
Counterarguments
- Other leading baijiu companies also have large capacity and storage; scale is not exclusive
Evidence
Brand is a key business resource for baijiu producers, and National Cellar 1573 is a world-famous high-end brand.
Translated from Chinese; management statement supporting a demand-side brand moat for premium baijiu.
Mid- and high-end baijiu gross profit margin 91.03%.
Translated from Chinese; very high gross margin is consistent with strong pricing power in premium baijiu.
They are unique resources that cannot be replicated.
Translated from Chinese; company asserts its cellars and brewing assets are non-replicable.
This technique was selected as the first batch of National Intangible Cultural Heritage in May 2006.
Translated from Chinese; heritage recognition reinforces the uniqueness and longevity of the production process.
Traditional channel operation model and authorized distribution of offline distributors.
Translated from Chinese; describes the authorized distribution approach.
Showing 5 of 11 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Premium demand volatility from macro downturns and consumer trade-down
- Policy/anti-corruption pressure on gifting and banquet spending
- Brand dilution from excessive discounting or channel stuffing
- Competitors improve quality through aging/storage investment and process innovation
- Environmental or safety regulation constraining production sites or expansions
- Quality incidents undermining perceived authenticity
Leading indicators
- Gross margin and realized ASP trend
- Channel inventory / distributor order cadence
- Secondary-market price stability for key SKUs
- Quality awards / tasting outcomes and defect/recall incidents
- Capacity and storage expansion vs demand (risk of oversupply)
- Regulatory actions affecting alcohol production facilities
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.