Moat ranks
Balance sheet
| ¥B | Dec 31 | Jun 30 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | 79.6 | 99.6 |
| Securities | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Debt | 45.4 | 43.4 |
| Net cash | 34.8 | 56.2 |
| Equity | 273.5 | 285.0 |
- Debt / EBITDA
- 0.98×
- Debt / equity
- 0.15×
- Leases (6/30/26)
- ¥14.3B
- Diluted shares
- 117M
- Book value / share
- ¥2,431.47
- Price / book
- –
- Net cash / share
- ¥479.14
- Market cap
- –
- Enterprise value
- –
Per-share record
Key indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Vs year ago | Last 8 quarters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 16.8% | – | |
| Operating margin | 9.1% | +2.6 pts | |
| FCF margin | 18.4% | +4.2 pts | |
| Capex / revenue | 2.2% | -1.6 pts | |
| Precision reducer orders growth | +23% | +8 pts | |
| Tsu reducer factory utilization | ~85.0% | +20.0 pts | |
| Changzhou reducer factory utilization | ~100.0% | -10.0 pts | |
| Transport aftermarket sales mix | ~40.0% | 0.0 pts | |
| Access equipment aftermarket sales mix | ~45.0% | 0.0 pts |
Margins and growth from reported quarters; company KPIs as reported in results releases.
About 6268
Nabtesco supplies precision robot reducers, transport control equipment, automatic doors and packaging machinery. Corrected H12026 continuing revenue was JPY 167.4 billion and operating profit JPY 15.8 billion, up 69.4%.
- Scale Economies Unit Cost
The company estimates about 60% share of reducers for medium and large industrial robot joints.
- Design In Qualification
Reducers are designed into robot joints; qualification and field reliability create switching costs for robot OEMs.
- Design In Qualification
Safety-critical rail, aircraft, marine, and commercial-vehicle systems require platform qualification and remain designed in over long equipment lives.
- Service Field Network
Maintenance of qualified, long-lived transport equipment supports repeat sales.
- Oct 30, 2026
Nabtesco completed its JPY15 billion buyback on October 30, acquiring 3,306,600 shares. The November 2 notice schedules cancellation for December 15. Rechecked the corrected H1 filing and kept the issuer-planned November 13 Q3 release as a future event.
- Sep 30, 2026
Nabtesco amended 2021–2026 financial reports after errors in affiliate consolidation and equity-method accounting and disclosed a material control weakness that remained unremediated.
- Sep 28, 2026
Nabtesco Technology Ventures invested in LOMBY, extending an existing wireless-charging relationship into autonomous delivery robots; the Nabtesco investment amount is not disclosed.
- Sep 16, 2026
Nabtesco began onboard validation of an autonomous vessel-control system integrated with a navigation application; commercial revenue from the trial is not disclosed.
- Sep 2026
Nabtesco repurchased 771,600 shares for JPY 3.435 billion in September. Cumulative purchases since August 3 reached 1,861,100 shares for JPY 8.578 billion by September 30.
Ownership
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On this page
Financial record
| Fiscal year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | TTM | Trend | Change 2016–25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per share (¥) | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 1,979.84 | 2,285.37 | 2,373.59 | 2,334.09 | 2,249.28 | 2,471.04 | 2,575.49 | 2,776.79 | 2,335.03 | 2,580.95 | 2,833.09 | +3.0%/yr | |
| Cash flow | 224.12 | 186.69 | 194.68 | 309.54 | 275.39 | 299.68 | 64.29 | 93.10 | 221.88 | 275.13 | 294.59 | +2.3%/yr | |
| Earnings | 150.37 | 203.48 | 169.42 | 144.42 | 163.61 | 534.15 | 86.77 | 118.50 | 77.95 | 127.58 | 173.93 | -1.8%/yr | |
| Free cash flow | 99.70 | 88.03 | 21.55 | 190.64 | 124.85 | 223.00 | -30.42 | -120.13 | -14.16 | 140.89 | 197.96 | +3.9%/yr | |
| Capex | 124.42 | 98.67 | 173.13 | 118.90 | 150.54 | 76.69 | 94.71 | 213.23 | 236.04 | 134.24 | 96.63 | +0.8%/yr | |
| Dividends | 47.09 | 60.26 | 73.99 | 73.06 | 78.03 | 72.57 | 78.15 | 79.16 | 80.37 | 80.87 | 81.30 | +6.2%/yr | |
| Book value | 1,195.57 | 1,355.72 | 1,439.67 | 1,509.29 | 1,605.18 | 1,990.52 | 2,093.31 | 2,188.34 | 2,269.26 | 2,292.22 | 2,431.47 | +7.5%/yr | |
| Diluted shares (M) | 124 | 124 | 124 | 124 | 124 | 121 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 119 | 117 | -0.4%/yr | |
| Totals (¥B) | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 245.0 | 282.4 | 294.6 | 289.8 | 279.4 | 299.6 | 309.1 | 333.4 | 280.5 | 307.9 | 332.0 | +2.6%/yr | |
| Operating income | 26.0 | 29.5 | 21.9 | 25.3 | 28.4 | 29.7 | 18.7 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 21.0 | 27.4 | -2.4%/yr | |
| Net income | 18.6 | 25.1 | 21.0 | 17.9 | 20.3 | 64.8 | 10.4 | 14.2 | 9.4 | 15.2 | 20.4 | -2.2%/yr | |
| Free cash flow | 12.3 | 10.9 | 2.7 | 23.7 | 15.5 | 27.0 | -3.7 | -14.4 | -1.7 | 16.8 | 23.2 | +3.5%/yr | |
| Buybacks | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0 | 10.1 | – | – | |
| Dividends | 5.8 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.5 | +5.8%/yr | |
| Net cash | 25.0 | 16.6 | 9.0 | 19.5 | 27.4 | 96.5 | 105.2 | 56.8 | 43.3 | 34.8 | 56.2 | +¥9.8B | |
| Margins & returns (%) | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 28.4 | 28.5 | 27.0 | 26.8 | 26.2 | 27.3 | 25.0 | 24.7 | 29.2 | 30.4 | 31.0 | +2.1 pts | |
| Operating margin | 10.6 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 8.3 | -3.8 pts | |
| Net margin | 7.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 21.6 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | -2.7 pts | |
| FCF margin | 5.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 9.0 | -1.2 | -4.3 | -0.6 | 5.5 | 7.0 | +0.4 pts | |
| ROIC | 13.7 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 7.8 | -8.0 pts | |
| Return on equity | 12.6 | 15.0 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 26.8 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 7.2 | -7.0 pts | |
| R&D % of revenue | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | – | +1.1 pts | |
| Stock pay % of revenue | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | -0.0 pts | |
| Capex % of revenue | 6.3 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 | -1.1 pts | |
Change uses 2016 and 2025 only: compound annual growth for amounts, points for margins and returns, and the change in amount for net cash. A dash means no 2016 base. Trend shows the fiscal years.
Moat
Moat scorecard
- Strength
- Confidence
- Structure
- Competitive
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- widening
- Pricing power
- moderate
- Component Solutions Business25.8%2 claims
- Transport Solutions Business32.6%2 claims
- Accessibility Solutions Business35.9%1 claim
- Others (Packaging Machinery and Welfare Equipment)5.7%1 claim
Moat claims
- Applies to
- Component Solutions Business
- Confidence
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- wideningas of Oct 9, 2026
The company estimates about 60% share of reducers for medium and large industrial robot joints. Q2 orders grew 23% and Tsu utilization reached about 85%, supporting recovery in unit costs; this is narrower than a measured share of all precision-motion products.
Reducer orders grew 23% year on year in Q2 and Tsu utilization rose to about 85%, compared with 65% a year earlier. More factory output supports unit-cost recovery, although it does not prove share gains.
- Precision reducer orders growth+23%
- Tsu reducer factory utilization~85.0%+20.0 pts
- Changzhou reducer factory utilization~100.0%-10.0 pts
- Medium and large robot joint reducer share~60.0%
- Chinese competitors subsidizing capacity and underpricing
- Technology shift toward alternative actuation (e.g., direct drive) in some robot joints
- Major robot OEMs multi-source to reduce dependence
- SourceNabtesco FY2026 Q2 briefing, released August 4, conference August 5Aug 4, 2026
- SourceNabtesco - Precision Reduction Gears (Our Business)Aug 9, 2026
- Applies to
- Component Solutions Business
- Confidence
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- stableas of Oct 9, 2026
Reducers are designed into robot joints; qualification and field reliability create switching costs for robot OEMs.
Existing robot designs and field reliability support qualification barriers. Growth in orders shows demand recovery, but no new customer share or switching-cost measurement is disclosed.
- Precision reducer orders growth+23%
- Medium and large robot joint reducer share~60.0%
- OEM redesign cycles reduce lock-in if form factors standardize
- Robot OEM vertical integration into reducers
- SourceNabtesco - Precision Reduction Gears (Our Business)Aug 9, 2026
- Applies to
- Transport Solutions Business
- Confidence
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- stableas of Oct 9, 2026
Safety-critical rail, aircraft, marine, and commercial-vehicle systems require platform qualification and remain designed in over long equipment lives. Nabtesco reports 100% share in control-actuation systems for domestically produced aircraft and high shares across its other disclosed niches.
Long-lived rail, aircraft and marine designs still support qualification. H1 transport orders grew 52.8%, but tenders and customer budgets continue to limit pricing.
- Japan rail brake system share~50.0%
- Japan rail door operating system share~60.0%
- Japan aircraft flight actuation share~100.0%
- Global two-stroke marine engine control share~40.0%
- Japan commercial vehicle wedge chamber share~80.0%
- Japan commercial vehicle air dryer share~60.0%
- Marine vessel equipment sales¥25.4B+26%
- Rolling-stock OEMs and operators mandate dual-sourcing
- Global competitors expand in Japan via partnerships
- Applies to
- Transport Solutions Business
- Confidence
- Durability
- medium
- Trajectory
- stableas of Oct 9, 2026
Maintenance of qualified, long-lived transport equipment supports repeat sales. Transport MRO was about 40% in both H12025 and H12026. Marine controls receive 24-hour support from five regions over about 25 years of vessel operation; service density strengthens this sub-business while rivals still compete.
Transport aftermarket mix held at about 40% in both H12025 and H12026. The September marine briefing confirms five-region service support over about 25 years, but does not report higher service retention.
- Transport aftermarket sales mix~40.0%0.0 pts
- Marine vessel equipment sales¥25.4B+26%
- Marine vessel aftermarket sales mix~40.0%
- Operators insource more maintenance
- Digital diagnostics shift value to software providers
- Applies to
- Accessibility Solutions Business
- Confidence
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- stableas of Oct 9, 2026
Installation, uptime, and maintenance matter in doors and platform doors. A 45% H1 MRO mix and management's planned shift toward monitoring-based maintenance support Nabtesco's stated service-system advantage.
Access equipment aftermarket revenue is about 45% of sales and supports local service density. Platform-door losses and the 2023 Gilgen write-down show that an installed base does not prevent poor project returns.
- Access equipment aftermarket sales mix~45.0%0.0 pts
- Japan building automatic door share~60.0%
- Global building automatic door share~20.0%
- Third-party installers and service partners reduce differentiation
- Component standardization lowers service capture
- Loss-making platform screen-door projects can absorb cash despite strong building-door service revenue.
- SourceNabtesco - Automatic Doors and Platform Screen Doors (Our Business)Aug 9, 2026
- SourceNabtesco FY2026 Q2 Results Briefing Q&AAug 5, 2026
- Applies to
- Others (Packaging Machinery and Welfare Equipment)
- Confidence
- Durability
- medium
- Trajectory
- narrowingas of Oct 9, 2026
PACRAFT services installed pouch-packaging lines. Packaging aftermarket revenue was about 30% of H1 sales, but the 85% reported domestic share applies only to Japanese retort-pouch food fillers and sealers. Overseas new-machine weakness reduced the earnings benefit.
Packaging aftermarket mix fell from about 35% in H12025 to 30% in H12026, while Others profit fell 29.7%. Lower service capture and weak overseas machine sales are reducing earnings from the installed base.
- Packaging machinery aftermarket sales mix~30.0%-5.0 pts
- Japan retort pouch filler and sealer share~85.0%
- Food manufacturers defer capex and maintenance during weak demand
- Third-party service providers capture routine maintenance work
- Packaging formats or food-processing methods shift away from retort pouches
- SourceNabtesco FY2026 Q2 briefing, released August 4, conference August 5Aug 4, 2026
- SourceNabtesco - Packaging Machines (Our Business)Aug 9, 2026
Profile change log
- Nov 11, 2026 · business change
Nabtesco completed its JPY15 billion buyback on October 30, acquiring 3,306,600 shares. The November 2 notice schedules cancellation for December 15. Rechecked the corrected H1 filing and kept the issuer-planned November 13 Q3 release as a future event.
- Oct 9, 2026 · business change
Nabtesco transferred its CMET 3D-printer subsidiary to a new owner, reducing exposure to a business outside its main control-equipment lines. Consideration and the separate gain are not disclosed in the Q2 briefing.
- Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision
Updated the primary automatic-door market from the source’s 2025 actual estimate of USD 24.5 billion to its 2035 forecast of USD 45.8 billion, with the same broad entrance-system definition and 2025 leader list. Corrected the door-maintenance Q&A evidence date to August 5.
- Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision
Added September marine evidence for classification approvals, five-region service and Kongsberg competition; distinguished alternative-fuel equipment demand from autonomous navigation, whose earnings contribution is expected in five to ten years. Packaging service mix declined from 35% to 30% year on year.
- Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision
Kept repeated OVALO, Gilgen and investment-property impairments inside reported earnings instead of reversing them as one-offs. Annual acquisition and asset losses are part of the capital-allocation record; isolated sale and liquidation events remain separate.
- Oct 9, 2026 · business change
Nabtesco repurchased 771,600 shares for JPY 3.435 billion in September. Cumulative purchases since August 3 reached 1,861,100 shares for JPY 8.578 billion by September 30.
- Oct 9, 2026 · business change
Nabtesco amended 2021–2026 financial reports after errors in affiliate consolidation and equity-method accounting and disclosed a material control weakness that remained unremediated.
- Oct 9, 2026 · business change
Nabtesco Technology Ventures invested in LOMBY, extending an existing wireless-charging relationship into autonomous delivery robots; the Nabtesco investment amount is not disclosed.
- Oct 9, 2026 · business change
Nabtesco began onboard validation of an autonomous vessel-control system integrated with a navigation application; commercial revenue from the trial is not disclosed.
- Oct 9, 2026 · business change
Nabtesco raised its FY2026 forecast to JPY 344 billion of revenue and JPY 32.6 billion of operating profit as reducer and transport demand improved.
- Oct 9, 2026 · business change
Nabtesco transferred 70% of Comtesco to Comer and retained 30%, removing hydraulics from consolidation and receiving JPY 17.724 billion of cash consideration.
- Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision
Added sourced moat trajectories, a four-part bull and bear debate, management and four linked end markets. The primary building-door profile excludes platform screen doors and uses a broader global industry estimate.
- Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision
Corrected briefing evidence dates, renamed the reported Others segment, replaced Stanley with Allegion among access-equipment peers and moderated reducer pricing power using reported pass-through evidence.
- Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision
Removed unsupported market-share ranges of 55–65%, 50–60%, 55–65% and 80–90%; retained reported point estimates as product- and country-specific KPIs. Global door and packaging markets are competitive beyond the concentrated Japanese niches.
- Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision
Replaced H12026 segment revenue weights with full FY2025 continuing revenue weights; removed profit weights that excluded corporate costs.
- Oct 9, 2026 · analyst revision
Corrected the H12026 profit summary from 72.4% operating growth to 69.4% after the September 30 amendment; continuing parent profit excludes hydraulics disposal gains.
Industry & peers
Peer map
Global automatic building entrance systems
Automatic pedestrian and specialized building entrances, including assemblies, operators, sensors, controls, access interfaces, installation and service worldwide across commercial, healthcare, industrial, residential, institutional and transportation buildings. Excludes railway platform screen doors, vehicle doors and manual door hardware.
- ASSA ABLOY Entrance Systems
- dormakaba Automatics
- Nabtesco
- Allegion
- GEZE
| Stocks | Moat | Gross m. | Op. m. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6268 | 79 | 31.0% | 8.3% | |
| Industry median | 20 | 70 | 40.9% | 19.0% |
| Sector median | 88 | 76 | 37.3% | 18.0% |
| All stocks median | 398 | 76 | 53.1% | 20.0% |
Moat medians cover every stock. Margin medians count only stocks with collected numbers and need at least three.
Drivers & risks
- Building renovation and replacement create demand even when new construction slows.
- Accessibility, public safety and hygiene needs support powered entrances in hospitals, transport buildings and other busy facilities.
- Labor shortages and connected diagnostics support inspection, service contracts and timely repairs.
- Higher interest rates and weak commercial-property economics delay new projects and renovations.
- Installation quality, entrapment safety and code compliance can create warranty costs, rework and reputational losses.
- Regional competitors and independent service providers constrain equipment prices and aftermarket retention.
- Steel, aluminum, electronics, wages and tariffs can raise costs before project prices adjust.
Bulls & bears
Can Nabtesco turn recovered reducer demand and service revenue into durable cash profit while it repairs financial controls and stops weak overseas projects from consuming the gains?
Arguments
What to watch
- 1Precision reducer order growth and Tsu/Changzhou utilization
- 2Continuing segment profit and corporate costs
- 3Transport and access-equipment aftermarket mix
- 4Platform screen-door project losses and contract cash collection
- 5Operating cash flow, capital spending and gross treasury purchases
- 6Control remediation, further amendments and equity-method profit
Next check: Review the rescheduled November 13, 2026 Q3 release for reducer orders, continuing-profit reconciliation, cash conversion and evidence that the control weakness has been repaired.
Sources: company filings and dated sources collected for Find My Moat; Current shares outstanding after the completed buyback have not been verified; market cap and valuation multiples are unavailable. Not investment advice.
Free to reuse, commercially too, with a credit link. See the data license.
Moat Score 79/100 by <a href="https://www.findmymoat.com/stocks/XTKS:6268">Find My Moat</a> (as of September 2026)Curation & Accuracy
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