VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
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Sunday, December 28, 2025
JD.com, Inc.
9618.HK · Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
JD.com, Inc. is a Cayman-incorporated e-commerce and logistics group with primary operations in China, listed in Hong Kong (9618/89618) and on NASDAQ (JD). Its reported segments are JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses; in FY2024, Retail contributed ~88% of consolidated net revenues, Logistics ~11% (external), and New Businesses ~1% (external). The core moat is operational: fast, reliable fulfillment supported by a dense logistics network, reinforced by customer trust via strict product authenticity and anti-counterfeit standards. A supporting moat is JD's marketplace/marketing platform connecting consumers and third-party merchants, though multi-homing and aggressive competition limit network-effect strength. Key pressures are intense price competition, rising fulfillment/labor costs, and regulatory scrutiny affecting platform and worker economics.
Primary segment
JD Retail
Market structure
Oligopoly
Market share
—
HHI: —
Coverage
3 segments · 6 tags
Updated 2025-12-28
Segments
JD Retail
China e-commerce retail and marketplace (B2C) plus merchant marketing services
Revenue
87.7%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
JD Logistics
China integrated supply chain logistics (warehousing, fulfillment, last-mile, technology-enabled logistics services)
Revenue
11%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
New Businesses
Adjacent and early-stage initiatives (incl. JD Food Delivery/instant retail, JD Property, Jingxi, overseas businesses)
Revenue
1.3%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
none
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
JD Retail
China e-commerce retail and marketplace (B2C) plus merchant marketing services
FY2024 revenue share uses consolidated segment disclosures: JD Retail net revenues RMB 1,015,948m / consolidated RMB 1,158,819m (FY ended 2024-12-31). Inter-segment eliminations are primarily logistics/services.
Operational Excellence
Supply
Operational Excellence
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Fast, reliable fulfillment (same-day/next-day and 211 Program) supports customer experience and retention; difficult to match without major logistics build and cost.
Erosion risks
- Competitors match delivery speed via heavy subsidies/capex
- Rising last-mile labor costs compress unit economics
- Disruptions from weather, pandemics, or regulatory constraints
Leading indicators
- Same/next-day delivery coverage expansion
- Order fulfillment expense trends
- Delivery time/NPS (if disclosed) and complaint rates
Counterarguments
- Delivery speed advantage can narrow quickly when rivals invest
- Consumers can multi-home across apps and choose based on price/promotions
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Strict merchant rules and anti-counterfeit policies support customer trust in authenticity and service reliability, important in high-value categories.
Erosion risks
- Counterfeit/quality incidents damaging reputation
- Price-led competition shifting consumers to cheaper platforms
- Reputational spillover from merchant misconduct
Leading indicators
- Refund/return and dispute rates
- Quality-control enforcement actions and merchant removals
- High-value category penetration (electronics, appliances) and repeat purchase rates
Counterarguments
- Other major platforms also invest in authenticity programs and buyer protection
- Brand trust may not outweigh price sensitivity in weak macro environments
Two Sided Network
Network
Two Sided Network
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Marketplace/marketing connects consumers and third-party merchants; larger selection and merchant participation can reinforce usage, but multi-homing limits network-effect intensity.
Erosion risks
- Merchants and consumers multi-home across platforms
- Shift to social/short-video commerce reduces marketplace gravity
- Regulatory constraints on platform practices and marketing
Leading indicators
- Marketplace and marketing service revenues trend
- Active merchants and SKU breadth (if disclosed)
- Traffic acquisition costs and customer acquisition efficiency
Counterarguments
- Network effects are weaker when both sides can easily switch and multi-home
- Discovery increasingly happens off-platform (social/creator channels)
JD Logistics
China integrated supply chain logistics (warehousing, fulfillment, last-mile, technology-enabled logistics services)
FY2024 external revenue share is adjusted for internal services: JD Logistics segment net revenues RMB 182,837m less internal services to other segments RMB 55,062m, divided by consolidated RMB 1,158,819m (FY ended 2024-12-31).
Physical Network Density
Supply
Physical Network Density
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Dense warehouse + cloud-warehouse footprint and national coverage supports fast fulfillment and lowers time-to-serve for enterprise and consumer parcels.
Erosion risks
- Rivals expand networks or partner to replicate coverage
- Regulatory/labor constraints on courier models increase costs
- Overcapacity drives pricing down in logistics
Leading indicators
- Warehouse count / floor area and utilization rates
- External customer revenue growth vs internal growth
- Logistics segment operating margin trend
Counterarguments
- Other large logistics players also operate national networks
- Network scale can become a cost burden if utilization falls
Service Field Network
Supply
Service Field Network
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
A large, trained delivery workforce and last-mile operations improve reliability and customer experience, which can matter for premium/urgent delivery and bulky items.
Erosion risks
- Rising wages/benefits and tighter labor regulation
- Service differentiation erodes as peers improve quality
- Outsourced gig-economy platforms scale faster in some categories
Leading indicators
- Delivery workforce size and retention
- On-time delivery rates and customer complaints (if disclosed)
- External client growth and contract wins
Counterarguments
- Service quality is hard to sustain without margin support in a price-competitive market
- Third-party courier ecosystems can scale rapidly with lower fixed costs
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Supply
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Higher network utilization can lower unit costs; scale helps spread fixed warehousing/linehaul costs, but market competition limits how much can be retained as profit.
Erosion risks
- Price wars pass cost benefits to customers
- Demand volatility reduces utilization
- Capital intensity increases fixed-cost leverage in downturns
Leading indicators
- Cost per order / cost per parcel (if disclosed)
- Warehouse utilization and throughput
- Segment margin resilience across cycles
Counterarguments
- Scale advantages may be competed away in a fragmented logistics market
- Competitors with different asset models can undercut pricing
New Businesses
Adjacent and early-stage initiatives (incl. JD Food Delivery/instant retail, JD Property, Jingxi, overseas businesses)
FY2024 external revenue share is small and is computed after removing inter-segment eliminations: New Businesses net revenues RMB 19,157m minus residual internal revenues (after disclosed Logistics internal services), divided by consolidated RMB 1,158,819m (FY ended 2024-12-31). Segment composition expanded in 2025 to include JD Food Delivery (per Q3 2025 6-K).
Ecosystem Complements
Network
Ecosystem Complements
Strength: 2/5 · Durability: fragile · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
New initiatives can leverage JD's existing ecosystem (Retail + Logistics) via traffic, merchants, and supply-chain capabilities; however, moats are immature and economics can be subsidy-driven.
Erosion risks
- Sustained price wars and subsidy-driven growth
- Regulatory constraints (platform, labor, food delivery)
- Low switching costs and rapid imitation by incumbents
Leading indicators
- New Businesses revenue growth and margin trajectory
- Marketing spend intensity vs revenue
- Evidence of repeat usage without subsidies (retention/cohorts, if disclosed)
Counterarguments
- Complement leverage may not translate into durable profit pools in commoditized categories (e.g., food delivery)
- Competitors already have entrenched networks and user habits in adjacent markets
Evidence
Timely and reliable fulfillment is critical to our success... expand our same day and next day delivery service...
Positions fulfillment speed/reliability as a core competitive capability.
Orders received before 11:00 a.m. will be delivered on the same day... and those before 11:00 p.m. by 3:00 p.m. the following day.
Concrete service-level commitment underpinning the fulfillment moat.
require all third-party merchants to meet our strict standards for product authenticity and service reliability.
Direct statement linking platform standards to customer trust.
We have a strict zero-tolerance policy for counterfeit products.
Explicit enforcement stance supporting a trust moat.
serves third-party merchants through online marketplace... enable the merchants to sell their products on JD Platform...
Shows JD Retail operates a merchant-facing marketplace, a prerequisite for two-sided network effects.
Showing 5 of 13 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Competitors match delivery speed via heavy subsidies/capex
- Rising last-mile labor costs compress unit economics
- Disruptions from weather, pandemics, or regulatory constraints
- Counterfeit/quality incidents damaging reputation
- Price-led competition shifting consumers to cheaper platforms
- Reputational spillover from merchant misconduct
Leading indicators
- Same/next-day delivery coverage expansion
- Order fulfillment expense trends
- Delivery time/NPS (if disclosed) and complaint rates
- Refund/return and dispute rates
- Quality-control enforcement actions and merchant removals
- High-value category penetration (electronics, appliances) and repeat purchase rates
Curation & Accuracy
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