VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
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Sunday, December 28, 2025
Ambev S.A.
ABEV3 · B3 - Brasil Bolsa Balcao
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
Ambev S.A. is a major brewer and beverage producer in the Americas, with profit concentrated in Brazil beer. Its core moats are demand-side brand strength (flagship beer brands) and a broad, scaled distribution system selling through distributors, supermarkets and retailers. In Brazil non-alcoholic beverages, licensing/bottling arrangements for global brands (notably the Pepsi portfolio) strengthen the offering and leverage the same route-to-market. Outside Brazil (CAC, Latin America South, Canada), the model relies on regional brand equity and distribution scale, with generally higher competitive and macro volatility risks than the Brazil beer franchise.
Primary segment
Brazil - Beer
Market structure
Oligopoly
Market share
55%-65% (estimated)
HHI: —
Coverage
5 segments · 4 tags
Updated 2025-12-28
Segments
Brazil - Beer
Beer production and distribution
Revenue
45%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
55%-65% (estimated)
Peers
Brazil - Non-alcoholic beverages
Non-alcoholic beverages (carbonated soft drinks, waters, RTD teas, sports drinks)
Revenue
9.4%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
Central America and the Caribbean
Beer and beverages production and distribution
Revenue
12.3%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Latin America South
Beer and beverages production and distribution
Revenue
22.2%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Canada
Beer production and distribution
Revenue
11.2%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
Brazil - Beer
Beer production and distribution
Revenue/operating-profit shares derived from FY2024 segment reporting tables (net sales and income from operations) in Ambev Form 20-F segment reporting tables.
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Entrenched mass-market beer brands support habitual demand, premium shelf/tap placement, and marketing efficiency.
Erosion risks
- Premiumization by competitors
- Craft/RTD substitution
- Alcohol advertising/marketing restrictions
Leading indicators
- Brand volume share trends (mainstream vs premium)
- Net revenue per hectoliter (NR/hl) vs industry
- Portfolio mix shift (premium, no/low alcohol, RTDs)
Counterarguments
- Heineken and other competitors can gain share in premium/pure-malt categories
- Consumers may trade down in recessions, reducing brand-driven pricing latitude
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Dense route-to-market and execution breadth across retail formats increases availability and makes share gains harder for challengers.
Erosion risks
- Retail consolidation increases buyer power
- Third-party logistics reduces distribution differentiation
- Channel shift to marketplaces/direct models
Leading indicators
- Outlet coverage and service levels (fill rate / OTIF where disclosed)
- Route-to-market cost per hl
- Receivables quality / DSO trends
Counterarguments
- Large retailers can pressure terms and reduce the advantage of route-to-market scale
- Competitors can replicate distribution reach via partnerships and 3PLs
Brazil - Non-alcoholic beverages
Non-alcoholic beverages (carbonated soft drinks, waters, RTD teas, sports drinks)
Revenue/operating-profit shares derived from FY2024 segment reporting tables in Ambev Form 20-F segment reporting tables.
Contractual Exclusivity
Legal
Contractual Exclusivity
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Bottling/distribution licenses (notably Pepsi portfolio) expand brand portfolio and leverage existing route-to-market.
Erosion risks
- License renewal / commercial-terms risk
- PepsiCo strategic changes
- Health/regulatory pressure on sugary beverages
Leading indicators
- Renewal / amendment announcements for bottling rights
- NAB volume and NR/hl vs peers
- Portfolio mix shift (zero sugar, water, functional)
Counterarguments
- Licensing does not guarantee consumer preference or category leadership
- Strong Coca-Cola system presence limits structural advantage
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Shared distribution backbone reduces incremental cost-to-serve and improves shelf availability for NAB alongside beer.
Erosion risks
- Retail consolidation increases buyer power
- Competitors match execution with 3PL and digital ordering
Leading indicators
- Outlet penetration for NAB SKUs
- Distribution cost per case/hl
- Trade-spend intensity
Counterarguments
- Route-to-market advantage is less differentiating in packaged soft drinks than in beer in some channels
Central America and the Caribbean
Beer and beverages production and distribution
Revenue/operating-profit shares derived from FY2024 segment reporting tables in Ambev Form 20-F segment reporting tables.
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Local flagship brands and AB InBev licensed brands support consumer pull and on-trade visibility across multiple CAC markets.
Erosion risks
- Local competition and informal channels
- Currency volatility impacting affordability
- Political/regulatory shocks
Leading indicators
- Market share trends in major CAC countries
- NR/hl and mix shift
- On-trade presence and execution
Counterarguments
- Brand strength can be country-specific and more vulnerable to local challengers
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Scale distribution and commercial execution across fragmented retail helps sustain share and availability.
Erosion risks
- Distributor disintermediation
- Modern trade share increases bargaining power
Leading indicators
- Outlet coverage and delivery service metrics (where disclosed)
- Working-capital turns
Counterarguments
- Distribution advantage can be replicated with 3PLs and targeted investments
Latin America South
Beer and beverages production and distribution
Revenue/operating-profit shares derived from FY2024 segment reporting tables in Ambev Form 20-F segment reporting tables.
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Regionally iconic brands (e.g., Quilmes, Andes) create local demand pull and defend share in concentrated markets.
Erosion risks
- Economic volatility driving down-trading
- Local competitors and imports in premium segments
- Regulatory/tax changes
Leading indicators
- Volume and share trends in Argentina and other LAS markets
- Inflation-adjusted NR/hl
- Premium mix and margins
Counterarguments
- High inflation and FX controls can disrupt pricing and availability, weakening brand-driven advantages
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Scale route-to-market helps sustain shelf presence across fragmented trade in multiple LAS countries.
Erosion risks
- Distributor consolidation
- Competitors invest to close execution gap
Leading indicators
- Outlet coverage and service levels
- Trade receivables and credit losses
Counterarguments
- In some markets, incumbency advantages are weaker and challengers can expand rapidly with capex
Canada
Beer production and distribution
Revenue/operating-profit shares derived from FY2024 segment reporting tables in Ambev Form 20-F segment reporting tables.
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Established domestic brands (e.g., Labatt) and global AB InBev licensed portfolio support shelf presence, though competition remains intense.
Erosion risks
- Premium imports and craft share gains
- Private-label expansion in retail
- Regulatory changes in alcohol retail
Leading indicators
- Canada volume and NR/hl trends
- Share in mainstream vs premium segments
- Brand health and innovation cadence
Counterarguments
- Canada beer market is structurally competitive with strong incumbents (e.g., Molson Coors), limiting moat strength
Distribution Control
Supply
Distribution Control
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Scale distribution and commercial execution help maintain availability and service quality, but regulated channel structures reduce differentiation.
Erosion risks
- Retail and provincial channel reform
- Competitors match execution investments
Leading indicators
- Distribution coverage in major provinces
- Service-level performance metrics (where disclosed)
Counterarguments
- Regulated distribution can compress structural advantages vs more fragmented emerging markets
Evidence
The Group's main own brands are Brahma, Skol, Antarctica ... among others.
Supports claim that demand is anchored in long-standing flagship beer brands.
Skol and Brahma ... are among the 10 most consumed in the world.
Company IR framing supports global brand strength and consumer pull.
Sales is made to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers through a broad distribution network.
Directly supports breadth of distribution and customer dispersion.
Including 60% beer market share in Brazil ...
Analyst estimate used as central point for Brazil beer share.
With a 60% market share in Brazil's beer market ...
Secondary public-market source consistent with ~60% share framing.
Showing 5 of 10 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Premiumization by competitors
- Craft/RTD substitution
- Alcohol advertising/marketing restrictions
- Retail consolidation increases buyer power
- Third-party logistics reduces distribution differentiation
- Channel shift to marketplaces/direct models
Leading indicators
- Brand volume share trends (mainstream vs premium)
- Net revenue per hectoliter (NR/hl) vs industry
- Portfolio mix shift (premium, no/low alcohol, RTDs)
- Outlet coverage and service levels (fill rate / OTIF where disclosed)
- Route-to-market cost per hl
- Receivables quality / DSO trends
Curation & Accuracy
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