Illustrative: 2028E revenue $3.0B, 22% adj EBITDA margin, 14x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes category slows + promo intensity rises + multiple compresses. Assumes net cash ~flat (cash roughly offsets debt).

Illustrative: 2028E revenue $4.0B, 28% adj EBITDA margin, 18x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes portfolio scales with Pepsi distribution and maintains ~50% gross margin + strong operating leverage.

Illustrative: 2028E revenue $5.0B, 30% adj EBITDA margin, 22x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes sustained share gains, strong international contribution, and premium growth multiple persists.

Q4/FY2025 results + 2026 outlook: clarity on portfolio growth, promo intensity, and margin trajectory after a year of major integration steps.

A clean "underlying fundamentals" print (velocity + margins) can reduce uncertainty created by one-time integration and accounting noise.

Alani Nu fully embedded into PepsiCo distribution network across the U.S. and Canada, lowering friction and improving execution at retail.

Better in-store execution and expanded points of distribution can lift sell-through and improve portfolio-level operating leverage.

Rockstar U.S./Canada integration and SKU rationalization/stabilization under Celsius portfolio management.

If stabilized, Rockstar adds incremental consumers and shelf-space while spreading fixed costs across a larger revenue base.

Sustained gross margin near/above ~50% with improving adjusted EBITDA margin as promo intensity normalizes and integration costs fade.

Higher confidence in "steady-state" earnings power can expand valuation multiples.

International distribution expansion (Europe/Asia-Pacific) and improving contribution margin as the playbook matures outside North America.

Adds a second growth vector and reduces dependence on U.S. category dynamics over time.

Energy drink competition (incumbents + fast-growing challengers) increases promotion and marketing intensity, pressuring velocity and margins.

Mitigation: Track velocity/shelf-space, promo allowance levels, and gross margin. Prefer adding only when margin and sell-through trends confirm resilience.

PepsiCo distribution execution or incentives do not translate into expected gains (availability, merchandising, cooler placement), limiting upside from the partnership.

Mitigation: Monitor management commentary on points of distribution, in-store execution, and channel performance; watch for sustained underperformance vs. category.

Integration complexity across Alani Nu and Rockstar (systems, distributors, brand positioning, SKU strategy) causes disruption, higher costs, or brand dilution.

Mitigation: Demand evidence of stable portfolio performance through multiple quarters; watch one-time costs, inventory write-downs/step-ups, and channel disruptions.

Term loan leverage and variable-rate exposure increase sensitivity to rates and execution volatility, reducing flexibility.

Mitigation: Track debt balance, refinancing terms, interest rate disclosures, and FCF; look for de-leveraging trajectory.

Inventory and receivables growth (portfolio scaling + integration) consumes cash and creates risk of write-downs or channel stuffing concerns.

Mitigation: Monitor inventory levels vs. sales growth and management commentary on sell-through vs. sell-in; watch cash conversion.

Convertible preferred securities (PepsiCo) and equity issuance related to acquisitions create dilution risk and complicate per-share valuation.

Mitigation: Model dilution ranges and focus on per-share earnings power; avoid overpaying on "headline" EBITDA without dilution awareness.

Regulatory scrutiny around caffeine, labeling, or marketing claims increases compliance costs or restricts go-to-market tactics.

Mitigation: Track regulatory developments and disclosures; diversify thesis away from any single claim/ingredient benefit.