VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ EXPANSION-STAGE STOCKS & SCALING SETUPS ★
NO ADVICE
Thursday, January 8, 2026
monday.com
MNDY · NASDAQ
This analysis is generated by AI and supervised by humans. Scores reflect business model strength, scaling runway, and valuation setup. Mistakes can happen.
Overview
Work OS platform and product suite (monday work management, monday CRM, monday dev, monday service) that lets teams build and run workflows/apps with low-code/no-code building blocks; sold as subscription SaaS with expanding enterprise and multi-product adoption.
Thesis summary
monday.com is past PMF with repeatable SaaS economics and is now scaling execution: enterprise penetration + multi-product attach + operating leverage. Q3 2025 showed 26% YoY revenue growth ($316.9M), stable net dollar retention (111%), rising enterprise mix (>$50k ARR customers are 40% of ARR), and strong backlog signal (RPO $747M, +36% YoY). If it sustains mid-20s growth while holding ~mid-teens non-GAAP operating margins, equity value can compound via both growth and margin/FCF durability.
Investment Thesis
Why Now?
The "next leg" is showing up in KPIs: new products (CRM/dev/service/campaigns) are now >10% of ARR, monday CRM hit $100M ARR, and enterprise cohorts are scaling fast (Q3 2025 customers >$100k ARR up 48% YoY). Meanwhile profitability is real (Q3 2025 non-GAAP operating margin 15%; adjusted FCF margin 29%), creating a setup where execution (not viability) drives rerating.
Scaling Thesis
Scale comes from (1) moving upmarket (enterprise work management capabilities + bigger deal sizes), (2) increasing product attach across the suite (CRM/dev/service/campaigns on the same platform), (3) packaging/monetizing AI (vibe + AI credits) without blowing up COGS, (4) expanding geographically with a repeatable GTM playbook, and (5) compounding operating leverage as S&M efficiency and G&A scale.
Competitive Moat
Workflow switching costs + configurability (Work OS), suite expansion on a common platform (easier cross-sell), ecosystem (apps/templates; many internal builds), and strong product-led adoption that feeds an enterprise GTM motion.
Key Assumptions
Valuation Scenarios
Illustrative: 2028E revenue $1.8B, 15% non-GAAP operating margin, 18x EV / non-GAAP operating income; adds ~$1.74B cash+marketable (Sep 30, 2025) and ~53.3M diluted shares (approx). Assumes slower growth and muted multiple.
Illustrative: 2028E revenue $2.2B, 20% non-GAAP operating margin, 22x EV / non-GAAP operating income; adds ~$1.74B cash+marketable (Sep 30, 2025) and ~53.3M diluted shares (approx). Assumes continued enterprise mix shift + operating leverage.
Illustrative: 2028E revenue $2.6B, 24% non-GAAP operating margin, 28x EV / non-GAAP operating income; adds ~$1.74B cash+marketable (Sep 30, 2025) and ~53.3M diluted shares (approx). Assumes strong multi-product attach, AI packaging success, and premium multiple.
Catalysts
FY2025/Q4 results + FY2026 growth and profitability outlook (especially enterprise momentum and product attach).
Clear guidance that growth stays >20% with mid-teens non-GAAP operating margin can re-rate the stock toward profitable-growth peers.
Enterprise cohort compounding: continued fast growth in customers >$50k, >$100k, and >$500k ARR and rising ARR mix.
Validates durability of growth (less SMB churn sensitivity) and supports higher long-term margin assumptions.
New products (CRM/dev/service/campaigns) expand beyond >10% of ARR and show measurable attach in enterprise accounts.
Multi-product expansion increases ARPA, retention, and TAM narrative; can lift both growth outlook and multiple.
AI monetization becomes more visible via vibe adoption + AI credits pricing (revenue lift without margin erosion).
If AI is additive (not just cost), it can create an incremental revenue stream and reinforce platform differentiation.
Risks
Work management / collaboration is crowded (horizontal and suite competitors). Competitive bundling or price pressure could slow growth or compress gross margin.
Mitigation: Track NDR, gross margin, and sales efficiency; watch enterprise cohort growth and win/loss commentary.
Net dollar retention could drift down if SMB customers churn more or enterprise expansion slows, reducing the self-funding growth flywheel.
Mitigation: Use NDR (overall and enterprise cohorts) as a hard gating KPI; size up only if NDR stays ~110%+.
A majority of revenue still comes from monday work management; if that core category slows, the suite may not ramp fast enough to offset it.
Mitigation: Track "new products % of ARR" and product-specific traction (e.g., CRM ARR milestones, campaigns adoption).
Outages, security incidents, or trust issues can drive churn (especially enterprise) and trigger longer sales cycles.
Mitigation: Monitor uptime/security disclosures and large-customer retention; require no repeat incidents and stable enterprise expansion.
Israel-based operations expose the company to geopolitical and regional labor/safety risks that can disrupt execution.
Mitigation: Watch risk-factor updates in SEC filings and management commentary; ensure continuity plans and geographic diversification of workforce.
Share-based compensation can dilute shareholders and mask true margin improvement if not paired with durable FCF.
Mitigation: Track share count, SBC as % of revenue, and per-share FCF; prefer entries when valuation already discounts dilution.
Even with profitability, multiple sensitivity remains high for growth software if rates rise or growth decelerates.
Mitigation: Use staged entry and anchor on KPI durability (enterprise cohorts, RPO, NDR) before sizing to max.
Scale Readiness
Q3 2025 non-GAAP operating margin 15% and adjusted free cash flow margin 29%; FY2025 guide implies ~14% non-GAAP op margin and ~27% adj FCF margin.
Q3 2025: customers >$50k ARR = 3,993 (+37% YoY) and represent 40% of ARR; >$100k ARR = 1,603 (+48% YoY).
New products now >10% of ARR; monday CRM reached $100M ARR (Q2 2025); campaigns launched and early adoption reported.
Overall NDR stable at 111% with stronger enterprise cohort NDR (117% for >$50k and >$100k ARR).
Work OS designed for customers to build customized apps/tools; expanding suite built on top of the platform.
AI capabilities are rolling out with updated pricing/credits; monetization is early and needs proof of durable gross margin impact.
Global footprint is meaningful but the KPI set here is focused on enterprise and product attach rather than geo mix; execution risk remains as scale increases.
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.