Expansion-Stage Stocks

CAVA is an early-stage national fast-casual chain with strong unit economics (AUV ~ $2.9M and mid-20s restaurant-level margins) and a long runway to expand store count toward management's 1,000-restaurant goal. If it sustains new-unit productivity while holding margins, operating leverage + unit growth can drive multi-year earnings power growth.

Dutch Bros has a proven, transaction-driven drive-thru beverage model and is still early in national penetration. With >1,000 shops and guidance targeting ~160 openings in 2025 and ~175 in 2026, the next leg is about compounding unit growth while improving shop-level contribution and corporate leverage. If transactions stay positive and new-unit productivity holds as the footprint expands, earnings power can scale faster than revenue.

Samsara has a proven subscription + device platform for asset-heavy operations and is now hitting a classic scaling inflection: ARR is large ($1.75B) and still growing ~30% YoY, large-customer adds are at record levels, and the company just posted its first GAAP profitable quarter while generating meaningful free cash flow. If enterprise penetration and product attach (AI safety, maintenance, workflows, etc.) keep driving net new ARR, operating leverage should expand and the business can compound value for several years.

Klaviyo has a proven, high-gross-margin SaaS model with strong retention and a large customer base. The next phase is scaling earnings power through (1) multi-product adoption (marketing + analytics + service) to expand revenue per customer, (2) continued upmarket motion shown by rapid growth in $50k+ ARR customers, and (3) international expansion where growth is already outpacing the core. With management targeting meaningful non-GAAP operating margin expansion by FY28, the setup is a classic 'grow + harvest operating leverage' story if NRR and large-customer growth stay healthy.

monday.com is past PMF with repeatable SaaS economics and is now scaling execution: enterprise penetration + multi-product attach + operating leverage. Q3 2025 showed 26% YoY revenue growth ($316.9M), stable net dollar retention (111%), rising enterprise mix (>$50k ARR customers are 40% of ARR), and strong backlog signal (RPO $747M, +36% YoY). If it sustains mid-20s growth while holding ~mid-teens non-GAAP operating margins, equity value can compound via both growth and margin/FCF durability.

Planet Fitness runs a proven, capital-light franchise model with ~20.7M members and 2,795 clubs as of Sep 30, 2025. The next leg is execution-driven: sustain ~6-7% unit growth while compounding higher-margin royalties through member growth, pricing/ARPU lift, and marketing efficiency. Management's Investor Day laid out a 2026-2028 "growth algorithm" (low-double-digit revenue CAGR, mid-teens adjusted EBITDA CAGR), which-if delivered-should translate into durable operating leverage and earnings power growth.

Wingstop is in the execution phase of a proven, mostly-franchised model: unit growth is running high-teens with record openings, AUVs remain ~>$2.0M, and corporate earnings power scales with high-margin royalty revenue. Near-term domestic comps have turned negative after lapping very strong 2024 growth, but system-wide sales are still growing and the next leg is about (1) sustaining development velocity, (2) improving throughput via Smart Kitchen / ops tech, and (3) expanding internationally as the system scales toward >10,000 restaurants worldwide.

Sprouts is in a scale-up phase where the model is proven (strong comps, structurally improved margins, robust cash generation) and the next leg is about throughput and repeatable expansion. Management targets ~10% unit growth with attractive new-store economics (avg ~$3.8M cash investment, ~$13M year-1 sales, and low-to-mid-30% cash-on-cash returns by year 5). With the company citing potential for 1000+ stores and an advantaged supply chain footprint, execution on store rollout + margin stability + ongoing buybacks can compound per-share earnings power over a multi-year horizon.

Five Below is in the "throughput + footprint" phase: the concept is proven, store openings are repeatable, and the next leg is scaling distribution, new geographies, and operating leverage. Recent quarters show strong transaction-driven comps and rapid sales growth, supporting confidence in a durable playbook. If management sustains healthy comps while growing stores toward a long-term 3,500+ U.S. opportunity, earnings power can compound via gross margin discipline and SG&A leverage.

Boot Barn sits at a clean expansion-stage inflection: the concept is proven (sustained positive comps and double-digit operating margins), the store-opening machine is active (70-store FY2026 plan), and management has expanded the long-term U.S. store opportunity to ~1,200 stores. If comps stay positive and merchandise margin holds/improves, the next leg is about throughput (openings), geography (market white space), and operating leverage (SG&A as % of sales).

Celsius is past product-market fit in "modern energy" and is now in an execution phase: scale distribution and shelf presence, integrate a broader portfolio, and harvest operating leverage. After closing Alani Nu (Apr 2025) and expanding the PepsiCo partnership (Aug 2025), the company is positioned to compound revenue and margin through portfolio breadth and the Pepsi distribution system. Recent quarters show strong gross margins (~51%) and high adjusted EBITDA dollars (e.g., ~$206M in Q3 2025 and ~$210M in Q2 2025), suggesting repeatable unit economics at scale even while integration costs and one-time items create GAAP noise.

Ollie's is scaling a proven off-price/closeout model where unit economics are designed to be repeatable (target ~2-year payback, ~1.0M initial cash investment per store, and ~4.0M first-year sales target). The next leg is execution: sustain comp growth + merchandise margins while accelerating store openings (including second-generation sites acquired via retailer bankruptcies) and expanding supply chain capacity to support a path toward a >1,300-store opportunity.

Cloudflare is in a scaling phase where product-market fit is established across security, networking, and developer services, and the next leg is driven by enterprise go-to-market throughput, deeper product attach, and operating leverage. Revenue growth re-accelerated into the low 30%s in Q3 2025, large-customer momentum remains strong, and the company is already demonstrating non-GAAP operating leverage while maintaining a large runway in connectivity, Zero Trust/SASE, and developer/AI workloads.

Deckers is past PMF and in the execution phase: HOKA continues to scale with strong international momentum, UGG remains a durable profit engine, and the corporate model is already high-margin. The key question is not "does it work?" but "how fast can it scale without eroding brand equity and margins?" Fiscal Q2 2026 delivered +9.1% YoY net sales to $1.431B with HOKA +11.1% and UGG +10.1%, while international net sales grew +29.3% and full-year FY2026 outlook calls for ~$5.35B net sales and ~21.5% operating margin. The setup is attractive if HOKA growth remains durable, promotions are kept disciplined, and operating leverage holds as scale increases.

Doximity has a rare combo: (1) distribution (80%+ of U.S. physicians on the network), (2) embedded workflow utility, and (3) subscription monetization with strong expansion dynamics (TTM net revenue retention 118% and 121 customers with $500k+ trailing subscription revenue as of 9/30/2025). With fiscal Q2 FY2026 revenue up 23% YoY and ~60% adjusted EBITDA margin, the model is proven; the next leg is scaling sales/product throughput (pharma + enterprise) and deepening workflow + AI adoption while letting operating leverage and buybacks compound per-share value.

SPS Commerce is a mission-critical retail network + SaaS platform with a proven, repeatable model (99 consecutive quarters of revenue growth through Q3 2025) and a high-recurring revenue mix (~94-96%). The expansion-stage leg is less about finding PMF and more about scaling throughput: widening the network, growing ARPU (wallet share) via broader product adoption (fulfillment, analytics, and acquired capabilities), expanding internationally, and compounding operating leverage (adjusted EBITDA margin ~30-32% in 2025 quarters). If SPS sustains mid-teens+ growth while holding margins, earnings power and capital returns (buybacks) can drive multi-year equity compounding.

Alarm.com runs a proven partner-distributed recurring revenue engine: SaaS and license revenue is growing ~high single digits/low double digits, renewal rates are high (94% trailing 12 months ended Sep 30, 2025), and SaaS gross margin is ~mid/high-80s. With the core model validated, the next leg is execution: (1) drive more throughput via partner channel enablement and attach of higher-value modules (video analytics, remote video monitoring, access control), (2) expand in commercial/multi-family and international markets, and (3) compound operating leverage as revenue grows faster than operating expense. If ALRM sustains its renewal rate and keeps SaaS growth steady while expanding adjusted EBITDA margin, the stock can re-rate from a 'steady grower' multiple to a 'durable compounding platform' multiple.

Ryan Specialty is a specialty insurance distributor built around wholesale brokerage + delegated authority underwriting (binding authority / MGUs). The model is already proven: durable double-digit organic revenue growth in a structurally attractive E&S/specialty market, plus strong Adjusted EBITDAC margins (~low-30s). The next leg is execution-driven throughput - adding/retaining high-producing brokers and underwriters, scaling underwriting management, expanding internationally, and compounding via disciplined M&A - while maintaining margin discipline and de-leveraging over time.

Life Time is past product-market fit: premium clubs show durable demand with double-digit comparable center revenue growth and rising revenue per membership. The next leg is execution: building out the new club pipeline while sustaining pricing power and in-center attach. With leverage trending down and free cash flow positive, the model can compound via (1) new club openings and ramp, (2) continued revenue per membership expansion, and (3) fixed-cost leverage at the center + corporate level.

Floor & Decor's warehouse-format flooring concept is proven: high gross margins (~43%+), repeatable store openings, and a durable value proposition (deep in-stock assortment + everyday low pricing via direct sourcing). The current setup is an execution + cycle story: demand has been pressured by low existing home sales (comps negative in parts of 2024-2025), but the company has continued to grow sales via new stores and deliver EPS growth via operating discipline. As the housing turnover backdrop normalizes, comps/transactions can inflect while store growth continues toward management's long-term target of at least 500 U.S. warehouse stores-creating operating leverage on a larger base.

Driven Brands is scaling a proven, needs-based automotive services model. Take 5 Oil Change is the growth engine (high single-digit same-store sales and steady unit additions), while Franchise Brands provide durable, high-margin royalty streams. The next leg is execution: scale Take 5 across geographies (company + franchise), keep throughput strong, and drive operating leverage. With non-core car wash divestitures accelerating debt paydown, equity value can compound via both earnings growth and a lower-risk multiple as leverage trends toward management's ~3x target.

Goosehead is past product-market fit in independent personal-lines distribution: it has a repeatable playbook to add producers (corporate + franchise), convert that capacity into written premium, and compound a renewal-heavy revenue stream. In Q3 2025, total written premium was $1.18B (+15% YoY), total revenue was $90.4M (+16% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA was $29.7M (33% margin), with policies in force at 1,853,000 (+13% YoY). The next leg is mostly execution: maturing a large cohort of newer corporate agents, scaling partnerships/enterprise motions, and sustaining retention while the personal-lines pricing cycle normalizes.

GitLab is a scaled DevSecOps platform with strong product-market fit in enterprise software delivery and security workflows. The business has demonstrated repeatable unit economics (high gross margin, growing $100k+ ARR customers, positive adjusted free cash flow). The next leg is execution: sustaining >20% growth while expanding non-GAAP operating margin through sales productivity, more platform consolidation per customer, and monetization of AI-assisted features.

First Watch is in the expansion-stage sweet spot: a proven daytime dining concept with repeatable unit-level economics (2024 AUV ~$2.2M), improving underlying demand (same-restaurant traffic turned positive in 2025), and a long runway to scale toward management's view of >2,200 U.S. restaurants. If it sustains low-double-digit unit growth while keeping restaurant-level margins near ~19-20% and expanding Adjusted EBITDA margin via scale and productivity, earnings power can compound over multiple years.

SiteOne is a scale-driven distributor in a fragmented market. The model is proven (national footprint, repeatable branch ops, and a long-running acquisition engine). The next leg is execution: (1) drive above-market organic growth via commercial initiatives and pricing discipline, (2) keep integrating bolt-on acquisitions, and (3) expand operating leverage via gross margin and SG&A productivity. With low leverage and ongoing share repurchase capacity, incremental margin expansion and steady top-line growth can translate into outsized EPS/FCF growth over a cycle.

Paycom is a proven HCM platform with a high recurring revenue mix and strong profitability. The setup is "expansion-stage" in the sense that the product is established and unit economics are repeatable; the next leg is execution: scaling demand via sales coverage and AI/automation-driven differentiation while sustaining high margins and strong free cash flow. If recurring growth holds around ~10% and margins stay ~40%+ (adj. EBITDA), per-share earnings power can compound through operating leverage plus dividends and buybacks.

Medpace is a high-margin, full-service CRO with a repeatable delivery model and a bookings/backlog engine that can translate into multi-year revenue compounding. After a soft bookings stretch, Q3 2025 showed a clear re-acceleration (book-to-bill 1.20x) with backlog back to ~$3.0B and EBITDA margins holding in the low-20s. If bookings remain >1x and backlog conversion stays ~low-20%s, MEDP can scale revenue with operating leverage while using excess cash flow for aggressive share repurchases, driving strong per-share earnings power.