VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
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Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Canadian National Railway Company
CNR · Toronto Stock Exchange
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
Canadian National Railway Company (CN) is a Canadian Class I freight railway operating an ~18,800 route-mile network linking Canada's coasts with U.S. Midwest and Gulf corridors. Its core moat comes from scarce rail rights-of-way and dense network coverage that are difficult and slow to replicate, reinforced by scale economics in maintaining and utilizing rail infrastructure. In Canada the market is highly concentrated (CN and CPKC are the two major systems), but modal substitutes (trucking, waterways, pipelines) and economic regulation in both Canada and the U.S. limit unconstrained pricing power. A small ancillary business provides non-rail logistics services (vessels/docks, transloading, forwarding) that complement the rail franchise but operates in a competitively fragmented market.
Primary segment
Rail freight transportation network
Market structure
Duopoly
Market share
50%-56% (estimated)
HHI: 4,031
Coverage
2 segments · 6 tags
Updated 2025-12-30
Segments
Rail freight transportation network
Canadian Class I freight rail transportation
Revenue
96.2%
Structure
Duopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
50%-56% (estimated)
Peers
Non-rail logistics and ancillary services
North American logistics services supporting rail-linked supply chains
Revenue
3.8%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
Rail freight transportation network
Canadian Class I freight rail transportation
Permits Rights Of Way
Legal
Permits Rights Of Way
Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 5/5 · 2 evidence
Rail corridors and operating rights-of-way are hard to replicate; expansions, line construction/abandonments, and certain transactions face regulatory approvals in both Canada (CTA) and the U.S. (STB).
Erosion risks
- Regulatory changes that increase mandated access or constrain pricing
- Political scrutiny of rail service levels and safety
- Long-haul interswitching / reciprocal switching expansion
Leading indicators
- CTA/STB rulemakings affecting interswitching, access, or rate cases
- Changes to Canada Transportation Act / Railway Safety Act requirements
- Number and outcomes of regulatory challenges to pricing/service practices
Counterarguments
- Entry barriers matter less on lanes where trucking or pipelines are strong substitutes
- Regulation can limit pricing power even if rights-of-way are scarce
Physical Network Density
Supply
Physical Network Density
Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 3 evidence
Large, interconnected rail network with unique corridor coverage (Canada coast-to-coast with U.S. Midwest/Gulf connectivity) supports density, service options, and asset utilization advantages.
Erosion risks
- Service reliability deterioration causing share loss to CPKC or trucking
- Port diversification and routing flexibility reducing corridor advantages
- Climate-driven disruptions (wildfires, floods, extreme cold) impairing network
Leading indicators
- Car velocity and through network train speed
- Customer service metrics (dwell, on-time performance)
- Capital spend per route-mile and network resiliency projects
Counterarguments
- On many corridors, service competition is effectively mode-vs-mode (rail vs truck) rather than rail network density
- Interline routings can reduce the advantage of single-network coverage
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Supply
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
High fixed infrastructure and operating costs reward large scale and utilization; railroads fund/maintain their own networks while some competing modes use publicly funded rights-of-way.
Erosion risks
- Prolonged volume declines reducing asset utilization
- Inflation in labor and materials outpacing pricing
- Higher required capex for safety and resiliency
Leading indicators
- Operating ratio and adjusted operating ratio
- Fuel efficiency and train length/weight trends
- RTMs and carloads (utilization/throughput)
Counterarguments
- Scale benefits can be offset by network complexity and congestion
- If regulation forces below-economic pricing on some traffic, scale alone may not protect margins
Non-rail logistics and ancillary services
North American logistics services supporting rail-linked supply chains
Scope Economies
Supply
Scope Economies
Strength: 2/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Ancillary logistics offerings are positioned as extensions of the rail franchise (vessels/docks, transload, forwarding). Integration can improve customer stickiness and asset utilization, but the market is highly competitive.
Erosion risks
- Commoditization and price competition in logistics services
- Disintermediation by shippers or large 3PLs
- Service disruptions in rail network reducing cross-sell value
Leading indicators
- Growth rate of other revenues vs freight revenues
- Share of customers using bundled rail + logistics services
- Vessel/dock utilization and service reliability
Counterarguments
- Many specialized logistics providers can match or beat CN on price and flexibility
- Ancillary services are small relative to core rail and may not move the moat needle
Evidence
The CTA ... provides rate and service remedies ... and ... various Company business transactions must gain prior regulatory approval.
Regulatory oversight and approvals create structural barriers and make new/expanded rail rights-of-way difficult.
The STB ... has exclusive jurisdiction ... including ... line construction and line abandonments.
U.S. rail line construction/abandonment approvals indicate legal friction for network build-outs and restructuring.
With its nearly 20,000-mile rail network ... CN connects Canada's Eastern and Western coasts with the U.S. Midwest and the Gulf of Mexico.
Network scale and corridor breadth underpin a physical network moat.
Route miles (includes Canada and the U.S., end of year): 18,800 (2024).
Route-mile footprint quantifies network scale that is difficult for new entrants to match.
CN owns 50.8% of Canada's railway network route kilometres.
Government dataset supports CN's dominant network footprint in Canada.
Showing 5 of 10 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Regulatory changes that increase mandated access or constrain pricing
- Political scrutiny of rail service levels and safety
- Long-haul interswitching / reciprocal switching expansion
- Service reliability deterioration causing share loss to CPKC or trucking
- Port diversification and routing flexibility reducing corridor advantages
- Climate-driven disruptions (wildfires, floods, extreme cold) impairing network
Leading indicators
- CTA/STB rulemakings affecting interswitching, access, or rate cases
- Changes to Canada Transportation Act / Railway Safety Act requirements
- Number and outcomes of regulatory challenges to pricing/service practices
- Car velocity and through network train speed
- Customer service metrics (dwell, on-time performance)
- Capital spend per route-mile and network resiliency projects
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.