VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ EXPANSION-STAGE STOCKS & SCALING SETUPS ★
NO ADVICE
Saturday, January 10, 2026
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
GSHD · NASDAQ
This analysis is generated by AI and supervised by humans. Scores reflect business model strength, scaling runway, and valuation setup. Mistakes can happen.
Overview
Independent personal lines insurance distributor operating a scaled corporate producer network and a franchise model, using a centralized service/technology platform and a multi-carrier marketplace to place and service policies; growth is driven by producer count + productivity and a compounding renewal book (policies in force).
Thesis summary
Goosehead is past product-market fit in independent personal-lines distribution: it has a repeatable playbook to add producers (corporate + franchise), convert that capacity into written premium, and compound a renewal-heavy revenue stream. In Q3 2025, total written premium was $1.18B (+15% YoY), total revenue was $90.4M (+16% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA was $29.7M (33% margin), with policies in force at 1,853,000 (+13% YoY). The next leg is mostly execution: maturing a large cohort of newer corporate agents, scaling partnerships/enterprise motions, and sustaining retention while the personal-lines pricing cycle normalizes.
Investment Thesis
Why Now?
The corporate network has been scaled aggressively (523 corporate sales headcount at 2025-09-30, with 286 <1-year tenured). If cohort productivity ramps as tenure increases, premium + revenue growth can accelerate without needing proportional overhead. At the same time, client retention improved to 85% at 2025-09-30, supported by moderating premium rate increases-important for the renewal flywheel.
Scaling Thesis
Scaling is driven by (1) adding distribution capacity (corporate + franchise producers), (2) productivity ramp as newer cohorts mature, (3) compounding renewal economics as policies in force expand, and (4) centralized service/tech infrastructure that can support more producers/policies with improving efficiency (operating leverage).
Competitive Moat
Multi-carrier marketplace + advising model (better fit and switching friction), centralized service operations that keep producers selling, and a large and growing renewal book (policies in force) that compounds over time. Franchise channel creates an additional growth engine with economics tied to new business + renewals.
Key Assumptions
Valuation Scenarios
Illustrative EV/Adj EBITDA: 2028E revenue $500M, 28% adj EBITDA margin, 15x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes slower growth + margin compression + multiple contraction.
Illustrative EV/Adj EBITDA: 2028E revenue $620M, 33% adj EBITDA margin, 20x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes steady premium growth, strong renewals, and modest operating leverage.
Illustrative EV/Adj EBITDA: 2028E revenue $720M, 36% adj EBITDA margin, 24x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes corporate cohort productivity step-up + partnerships + durable premium growth with premium/retention normalization.
Catalysts
FY2025/Q4 results and 2026 outlook-especially written premium growth, producer growth cadence, and margin/efficiency commentary.
Clear evidence that newer corporate cohorts are ramping and retention is stable can re-rate growth durability and earnings power.
Corporate agent productivity improves as the large <1-year tenured cohort matures, translating headcount growth into corporate written premium growth.
If corporate productivity inflects upward, consolidated written premium and revenue growth can accelerate without proportional cost growth.
Meaningful ramp in enterprise sales/partnership channels (embedded/affiliate distribution) that adds incremental policy flow.
Adds a third growth engine beyond corporate + franchise and can improve geographic mix and throughput.
Personal lines premium rate increases moderate further, supporting client retention and renewal compounding.
Stabilizes the renewal flywheel (policies in force growth + renewal revenue growth) and improves visibility.
Risks
Insurance market conditions (pricing, underwriting appetite) reduce carrier capacity or create product availability constraints in key geographies, slowing new business placement.
Mitigation: Track carrier/product availability commentary, corporate vs franchise written premium mix, and new business revenue trends; size conservatively when capacity is tightening.
Premium increases or coverage changes drive higher churn; client retention and/or premium retention falls, slowing renewal revenue compounding.
Mitigation: Monitor client retention (target >=84-85%), premium retention, policies in force growth, and renewal revenue growth; avoid adding if retention drops meaningfully.
Rapid corporate headcount growth fails to convert into productivity (training/ramp issues), leading to margin pressure and disappointing premium growth.
Mitigation: Track cohort mix (<1 year vs >1 year), corporate written premium growth, and productivity disclosures; require evidence of ramp before increasing position size.
Franchise channel stagnates or declines (attrition, weaker recruiting), reducing a key growth engine and weakening renewal royalty growth.
Mitigation: Track total franchise producers, operating franchises, and franchise written premium growth; look for stabilization in franchise count with continued productivity gains.
Complex Up-C structure and tax receivable agreement obligations create cash outflows and valuation complexity; variable-rate debt adds sensitivity to rates.
Mitigation: Model cash needs including TRA + interest; watch net debt, repurchase activity, and disclosures on TRA liabilities; demand margin discipline.
If growth decelerates or rates rise, EV/EBITDA multiple can compress materially even if operations remain solid.
Mitigation: Use staged entry; avoid adding after multiple expansion; anchor decisions on written premium growth, retention, and margin trajectory.
Scale Readiness
Corporate sales headcount 523 and franchise agents 2,124; model is proven, but growth depends on execution and recruiting quality.
Large <1-year corporate cohort (286 of 523) creates near-term drag and sets up a potential productivity ramp if training + tenure translate into output.
Policies in force 1,853,000 with client retention 85%; renewal revenue growing double digits, but sensitive to premium-rate cycle.
Carrier/product availability issues can constrain growth in key markets; diversification + carrier breadth are strategic necessities.
Adjusted EBITDA margin 33% in Q3 2025 suggests strong leverage potential; continued investments may temporarily pressure margins.
Company is investing in technology and new go-to-market motions; proof will show up in productivity and incremental channel growth.
Up-C structure + TRA liabilities and variable-rate debt add complexity; requires disciplined cash management and transparent capital allocation.
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.