VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
PRICE: 5 CENTS
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML · Euronext Amsterdam
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
ASML is the critical lithography supplier to leading chipmakers, with an effective monopoly in EUV systems and a durable moat built on extreme technical complexity, partner-dependent supply chains (notably ZEISS optics), and long development cycles. DUV lithography remains an oligopoly, but ASML benefits from entrenched process integration. A large Installed Base Management business adds recurring, high-value service and upgrade revenue tied to tool uptime and performance.
Primary segment
Installed Base Management (service, upgrades, field options)
Market structure
Quasi-Monopoly
Market share
—
HHI: —
Coverage
3 segments · 8 tags
Updated 2025-12-21
Segments
EUV lithography systems (incl. High-NA)
Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems
Revenue
—
Structure
Monopoly
Pricing
strong
Share
100% (reported)
Peers
—
DUV lithography systems
Deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems
Revenue
—
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Installed Base Management (service, upgrades, field options)
Service, upgrades and field options for installed ASML lithography tools
Revenue
23%
Structure
Quasi-Monopoly
Pricing
strong
Share
—
Peers
—
Moat Claims
EUV lithography systems (incl. High-NA)
Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems
Key customers listed are based on Reuters naming major ASML customers; supplier list reflects ZEISS optics and TRUMPF laser involvement in EUV ecosystem.
Supply Chain Control
Supply
Supply Chain Control
Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
EUV capability depends on tightly coupled, hard-to-replicate subsystems (especially optics). ZEISS SMT is described as an exclusive optics supplier for ASML EUV tools.
Erosion risks
- Supplier concentration (ZEISS optics)
- Geopolitical export controls disrupt supply chain
Leading indicators
- ZEISS SMT capacity expansions
- EUV/High-NA shipment cadence
- Critical component lead times
Counterarguments
- A new optics supplier could emerge with state backing
- Customers may delay node transitions, reducing EUV volumes
Capex Knowhow Scale
Supply
Capex Knowhow Scale
Strength: 5/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
High-NA EUV tools are extremely expensive and technically complex, implying large capital and R&D barriers to entry.
Erosion risks
- State-backed competitor programs (e.g., China EUV)
- Technology substitution (multi-patterning, advanced packaging)
Leading indicators
- Competitor EUV prototype milestones
- Customer EUV layer counts per node
- ASML EUV backlog / book-to-bill
Counterarguments
- If a government subsidizes a rival regardless of economics, entry barriers may fall
- Alternative scaling paths could reduce EUV intensity at the leading edge
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Leading chipmakers rely on ASML as the critical supplier of EUV tools; procurement tends to favor proven uptime, yield and roadmap credibility.
Erosion risks
- Customer dual-sourcing efforts (where possible)
- Reputation damage from shipment delays or reliability issues
Leading indicators
- Customer capex allocation to EUV vs alternatives
- Field reliability metrics (uptime, wafers per hour)
- High-NA adoption timelines
Counterarguments
- If ASML misses roadmaps, customers could shift to more multi-patterning or older tools
- Large customers could internalize more process know-how, reducing vendor leverage
DUV lithography systems
Deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems
DUV segment moat is weaker and more contested vs EUV; confidence intentionally lower.
Switching Costs General
Demand
Switching Costs General
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 2/5 · 2 evidence
Scanner platforms are deeply embedded in fab process flows (overlay, tooling, matched sets). Switching vendors can require costly re-qualification.
Erosion risks
- Aggressive pricing from Nikon/Canon
- DUV technology maturity reduces differentiation
Leading indicators
- DUV share of net bookings
- Used-tool and refurbished demand
- Customer node roadmaps that extend DUV usage
Counterarguments
- DUV tools are more substitutable across vendors than EUV
- Cost-sensitive customers may multi-source or pick cheaper tools
Installed Base Management (service, upgrades, field options)
Service, upgrades and field options for installed ASML lithography tools
Revenue share is derived from FY2024 Installed Base Management sales (EUR6.494B) divided by FY2024 total net sales (EUR28.263B) in the same press release.
Service Field Network
Supply
Service Field Network
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Global field service and upgrade capability monetizes performance improvements and supports high tool utilization at customer fabs.
Erosion risks
- Third-party service providers for mature tools
- Customers internalize more maintenance capability
Leading indicators
- Installed Base Management sales growth
- Upgrade attach rate
- Spare-part lead times
Counterarguments
- Independent service organizations can undercut on older tools
- As tools improve reliability, service intensity may fall
Installed Base Consumables
Demand
Installed Base Consumables
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Large installed base drives ongoing demand for OEM parts, field options and productivity upgrades.
Erosion risks
- Parts grey market / refurb ecosystem
- Regulatory restrictions limiting service to certain regions
Leading indicators
- Service contract coverage
- Field option revenue mix
- Installed base growth vs retirements
Counterarguments
- Customers may source some parts/services from third parties
- Export restrictions can reduce addressable installed base in some geographies
Evidence
ASML is the only manufacturer of EUV lithography machines worldwide... ZEISS SMT exclusively supplies the optics for these machines.
Supports EUV single-supplier position + dependence on exclusive optics partner.
High-performance laser amplifiers by TRUMPF play a central role... In close cooperation with ASML...
Supports that critical laser subsystems for EUV light generation are built in close cooperation with ASML.
The High NA... machines, costing approximately EUR350 million ($370 million) each...
Concrete price point illustrating the capex barrier and complexity of next-gen EUV.
ASML has emerged as the sole supplier of EUV machines...
Independent framing of EUV as a winner-take-all outcome after decades-long development race.
ASML is the only company that makes EUV... lithography technology.
Company statement of EUV single-supplier status; underpins trust/roadmap dependence.
Showing 5 of 9 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Supplier concentration (ZEISS optics)
- Geopolitical export controls disrupt supply chain
- State-backed competitor programs (e.g., China EUV)
- Technology substitution (multi-patterning, advanced packaging)
- Customer dual-sourcing efforts (where possible)
- Reputation damage from shipment delays or reliability issues
Leading indicators
- ZEISS SMT capacity expansions
- EUV/High-NA shipment cadence
- Critical component lead times
- Competitor EUV prototype milestones
- Customer EUV layer counts per node
- ASML EUV backlog / book-to-bill
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
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