Erosion risks

• Regulatory intervention to increase competition
• Margin model changes reducing incumbency advantages

Leading indicators

• EMIR policy changes affecting EU CCPs
• Number of active clearing members
• Open interest and average daily volume trends

Counterarguments

• Large clients can multi-home across CCPs (e.g., for OTC swaps) and shift flow when economics change.
• Regulators may push for interoperability/portability that lowers switching friction.

Erosion risks

• Fragmentation via competing venues and alternative trading models
• Liquidity migration to global competitors in key contracts

Leading indicators

• Bid/ask spreads and order book depth in flagship contracts
• Participant connectivity growth
• Share of volume in benchmark products

Counterarguments

• Liquidity can migrate quickly if a rival wins key market-maker incentives or launches a superior contract.
• Cross-border participants may prefer US venues for global netting and capital efficiency.

Erosion risks

• Successful rival contract design capturing liquidity
• Regulatory changes shifting hedging behavior

Leading indicators

• Open interest concentration in flagship contracts
• New competitive contract launches and adoption
• Client hedging volumes during rate volatility

Counterarguments

• Benchmark status is maintained by liquidity; it can be challenged if execution quality deteriorates.
• Some hedging migrates OTC or to venues with better cross-margining across currencies.

Erosion risks

• Migration back to OTC in benign volatility regimes
• Aggressive fee competition from rival energy exchanges

Leading indicators

• Number of active participants/members
• Cleared volumes vs OTC volumes
• Growth in flagship power futures open interest

Counterarguments

• Large participants can shift flow if rival exchanges offer better margin offsets or fee incentives.
• Energy market structure/policy changes can alter hedging demand.

Erosion risks

• Regulatory relaxations reducing incentives to clear
• Major default events stressing clearing confidence

Leading indicators

• Clearing volume growth rates
• Margin requirement trends
• Default fund changes and risk events

Counterarguments

• OTC markets can innovate on bespoke contracts and retain activity for customized risk needs.
• Clearing advantages are partially commoditized across major exchanges.

Erosion risks

• Order-flow fragmentation across MTFs and internalizers
• Regulatory reforms affecting market structure (MiFID/MiFIR)

Leading indicators

• Market share of on-exchange trading in German shares
• Displayed liquidity and effective spreads
• Market-maker participation and quote quality

Counterarguments

• Off-exchange/internalization can siphon volume even if the exchange remains the reference price source.
• If costs rise, brokers can route more flow to alternative venues with incentives.

Erosion risks

• Reputational damage from outages/market incidents
• Shift toward alternative reference prices

Leading indicators

• System uptime/incident frequency
• Auction participation and close-related volumes
• Market quality metrics vs peers

Counterarguments

• Brand alone does not prevent routing decisions if rivals offer materially better economics.
• Retail flow in particular can be routed for payments/incentives outside the primary venue.

Erosion risks

• Commoditization of FX execution venues
• Regulatory shifts affecting FX market structure
• Digital-asset market volatility and trust shocks

Leading indicators

• Active client count and connectivity growth
• Share of flow in key FX products
• Digital-asset volumes and institutional adoption

Counterarguments

• Institutional FX is inherently multi-homed; clients can split flow across platforms with low switching friction.
• Digital-asset market infrastructure is still forming; incumbency is less durable than in traditional markets.

Erosion risks

• Regulatory fines/sanctions or loss of permissions
• Policy-driven structural changes to post-trade infrastructure

Leading indicators

• Regulatory examinations and findings
• CSDR settlement-discipline metrics
• Client concentration and connectivity growth

Counterarguments

• Regulatory pressure can also limit pricing and force costly operational changes.
• Some post-trade functions can be unbundled/outsourced, reducing integrated moat benefits.

Erosion risks

• Alternative settlement models (DLT-based) gaining regulatory acceptance
• Geopolitical/legal risks around sanctions and asset freezes

Leading indicators

• ICSD settlement transaction growth
• Custody asset balances and transaction counts
• Industry adoption of DLT settlement rails

Counterarguments

• Clients can use both ICSDs for redundancy; some services are substitutable.
• Technology changes could reduce the importance of centralized post-trade networks over time.

Erosion risks

• Rapid rate cuts compressing net interest income
• Client cash-management changes reducing balances

Leading indicators

• Average customer cash balances
• ECB policy rate trajectory
• Treasury result as share of segment net revenue

Counterarguments

• Float economics are cyclical and can reverse quickly with interest-rate changes.
• Regulatory constraints can limit investment of client cash and reduce profitability.

Erosion risks

• Standardized APIs lowering switching costs
• Operational incidents reducing trust

Leading indicators

• Net retention and contract renewals
• Transaction volumes processed
• Operational uptime/incident rates

Counterarguments

• Large distributors can build multi-platform routing; switching is costly but not impossible.
• Pricing pressure rises if platforms converge on standard protocols.

Erosion risks

• Disintermediation via direct-to-consumer channels
• Platform fragmentation and multi-homing

Leading indicators

• Distribution AUM on platform
• Number of active distributors/fund providers
• Net inflows and transfers of portfolios

Counterarguments

• Multi-homing is common; distributors can access many platforms with incremental cost.
• Fund providers can negotiate pricing by threatening to shift listings to other platforms.

Erosion risks

• Commoditization of fund processing
• Regulatory changes increasing fixed costs for all players

Leading indicators

• Transactions settled per year
• Cost-to-serve trends
• Automation rates and straight-through processing metrics

Counterarguments

• Scale can be replicated by other large platforms via consolidation.
• Scale does not guarantee pricing power if services are viewed as utilities.

Erosion risks

• Cloud-native competitors reducing implementation friction
• Customer consolidation increasing buyer power

Leading indicators

• Net retention/renewal rates
• Time-to-implement and customer satisfaction
• SaaS mix and ARR growth

Counterarguments

• Large customers can run dual systems during migration; switching is hard but achievable.
• Platform differentiation may narrow as vendors converge on similar feature sets.

Erosion risks

• Best-of-breed resurgence
• Clients standardizing on a single enterprise vendor (e.g., Aladdin)

Leading indicators

• Cross-sell attach rates of analytics
• Churn by customer cohort
• Competitive win/loss rates vs integrated suites

Counterarguments

• Bundling can be countered by buyers mandating modular architectures and open APIs.
• Competitors with broader suites may outbundle Deutsche Boerse's software stack.

Erosion risks

• Benchmark regulation and scrutiny of index methodologies
• Price pressure from large ETF issuers

Leading indicators

• ETF AUM linked to STOXX/DAX indices
• Index derivative volumes on Eurex
• Renewal rates of licensing contracts

Counterarguments

• ETF providers can switch to alternative indices if branding is weak and switching costs are manageable.
• Competitors with broader benchmark ecosystems (MSCI, S&P, FTSE) can pressure pricing.

Erosion risks

• Regulatory or industry push to commoditize benchmark licensing
• Fee compression in passive products

Leading indicators

• Net new ETF launches on STOXX/DAX
• AUM retention on linked ETFs
• Pricing changes in index licensing deals

Counterarguments

• Index switching can happen via index migration strategies if fees become a major differentiator.
• Large issuers may create proprietary indices to avoid licensing fees.

Erosion risks

• Methodology controversies reducing trust
• Regulatory shifts redefining ESG reporting requirements

Leading indicators

• Client renewal rates in ESG products
• Regulatory changes to ESG disclosure regimes
• Reputational incidents or methodology challenges

Counterarguments

• ESG data is fragmented; customers often buy multiple datasets, limiting single-provider moat.
• Regulation can standardize disclosures, reducing differentiation among providers.