VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
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Greggs plc
GRG · London Stock Exchange
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
Greggs plc is a UK food-on-the-go retailer with two IFRS 8 segments: retail company-managed shops (including delivery) and a business-to-business channel (franchise and wholesale). The moat is primarily supply-side: vertically integrated manufacturing 'centres of excellence' and self-run logistics support consistent availability and low prices at national scale. Demand-side strengths include a leading brand-for-value position and convenience from a dense shop estate; the loyalty app is increasingly used at checkout to drive repeat purchase frequency. Key risks are intense competition in UK QSR/food-to-go, input-cost inflation, and the possibility of estate saturation as the company continues to expand. Market cap about $2.24B as of 2026-01-30 (https://stockanalysis.com/quote/otc/GGGSY/market-cap/).
Primary segment
Retail company-managed shops
Market structure
Competitive
Market share
—
HHI: —
Coverage
2 segments · 8 tags
Updated 2026-01-31
Segments
Retail company-managed shops
UK food-to-go retail (bakery/QSR) sold through company-operated shops and delivery
Revenue
88.4%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Business-to-business (franchise & wholesale)
UK branded food-to-go franchising and wholesale supply
Revenue
11.6%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
Retail company-managed shops
UK food-to-go retail (bakery/QSR) sold through company-operated shops and delivery
Revenue GBP 1,781.7m and trading profit GBP 277.3m for FY ended 2024-12-28 (IFRS 8 segment table). Revenue share and operating_profit_share (proxy) derived from this table: https://a.storyblok.com/f/162306/x/fa0ccf33b0/preliminary-results-for-the-52-weeks-ended-28-december-2024.pdf
Physical Network Density
Supply
Physical Network Density
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
A dense UK estate (2,618 shops) supports convenience-led demand capture across dayparts and underpins delivery and click+collect coverage.
Erosion risks
- Estate saturation and self-cannibalisation from rapid openings
- Footfall shifts away from traditional locations
- Rent, rates, and wage inflation pressuring shop-level economics
Leading indicators
- Net new openings vs closures and relocations
- Like-for-like sales growth
- Shop contribution margin and payback on new sites
Counterarguments
- Convenience is contestable: rivals can open nearby stores and buy premium sites
- Higher store density can reduce incremental returns via cannibalisation
Supply Chain Control
Supply
Supply Chain Control
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Vertically integrated manufacturing and self-run logistics improve availability and cost efficiency, supporting the value proposition at scale.
Erosion risks
- Input-cost shocks (wages, energy, ingredients) overwhelming efficiency gains
- Operational disruptions in manufacturing or distribution
- Higher capex needs to add capacity (execution risk)
Leading indicators
- Gross margin and supply chain cost ratios
- Capacity additions and commissioning milestones
- Service levels (in-stock availability, waste rates)
Counterarguments
- Large QSR peers can achieve comparable efficiency via outsourcing or scale supply contracts
- Vertical integration can reduce flexibility if demand shifts quickly
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Brand positioning as a leading UK food-to-go brand and strong value perception supports repeat purchasing and resilience in weaker consumer environments.
Erosion risks
- Brand damage from quality, food safety, or allergen incidents
- Menu fatigue or innovation missteps
- Consumers trading down further or switching to competitors/promotions
Leading indicators
- YouGov Brand Index scores and 'value' ranking
- Customer satisfaction/NPS and complaint rates
- Traffic and transaction growth vs price-led growth
Counterarguments
- Food-to-go remains highly price- and convenience-driven; brand may have limits
- Competitors can match product quality and undercut pricing in local markets
Habit Default
Demand
Habit Default
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
The Greggs App is increasingly used at point of sale, enabling loyalty rewards and targeted offers that can increase frequency and embed habit.
Erosion risks
- Loyalty offers become discount-driven and compress margins
- Competitor apps and delivery platforms reduce differentiation
- Data/privacy changes reducing targeting effectiveness
Leading indicators
- App scan rate and active users
- Frequency and basket size of app-engaged customers
- Redemption rate and margin impact of promotions
Counterarguments
- Consumers can easily multi-home across food apps; switching costs are low
- Delivery aggregators can own the customer relationship and data
Business-to-business (franchise & wholesale)
UK branded food-to-go franchising and wholesale supply
Revenue GBP 232.7m and trading profit GBP 55.5m for FY ended 2024-12-28 (IFRS 8 segment table). Shares derived from the same table: https://a.storyblok.com/f/162306/x/fa0ccf33b0/preliminary-results-for-the-52-weeks-ended-28-december-2024.pdf
Long Term Contracts
Demand
Long Term Contracts
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Franchise agreements (including licence fees) and ongoing wholesale supply relationships can create recurring revenue and some channel stickiness.
Erosion risks
- Partner economics deteriorating (traffic and wage/rent pressures) leading to closures
- Renegotiation pressure on fees or supply pricing
- Competitive franchisors winning new sites
Leading indicators
- Franchise system sales growth
- Net franchised shop openings/closures
- Royalty/licence fee income trend
Counterarguments
- Franchise partners can choose competing brands for future sites
- Wholesale relationships can be re-tendered or replaced
Supply Chain Control
Supply
Supply Chain Control
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Centralized manufacturing and distribution enables consistent product supply and quality standards for franchise and wholesale partners.
Erosion risks
- Supply constraints as partner network expands
- Input-cost inflation passed through to partners
- Logistics disruptions affecting service levels
Leading indicators
- On-time/in-full delivery metrics
- Partner satisfaction and retention
- Supply chain capacity utilization
Counterarguments
- Partners may source alternative products if economics worsen
- Other food brands can offer turnkey supply models to franchisees
Brand Trust
Demand
Brand Trust
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
A strong consumer brand helps franchise and wholesale partners drive demand, improving partner economics and willingness to commit to the format.
Erosion risks
- Brand weakening reduces partner traffic
- Channel conflicts between company-operated shops and franchise sites
- Reputation shocks impacting the whole network
Leading indicators
- Brand metrics and customer sentiment
- Franchise enquiries and new partner sign-ups
- Partner-level sales per outlet (system sales)
Counterarguments
- Partner success can be driven more by location/traffic than brand
- Wholesale partners may prioritize margin and range over single-brand pull
Evidence
"...growing the estate to 2,618 shops as at 28 December 2024"
Shows the scale of Greggs' physical footprint.
"With over 2,600 shops across the UK including 500 with franchise partners..."
Confirms broad national coverage and multi-channel reach.
"Today, our nine production facilities are manufacturing centres of excellence... producing them at scale."
Evidence of centralized, scaled production supporting unit costs and consistency.
"We move products from our manufacturing sites to our shops ourselves, helping to keep prices as low as possible."
Direct statement that Greggs operates its own distribution, reinforcing control over cost and service levels.
"...Greggs continues to be the UK's leading food-to-go brand and Number 1 for value (YouGov's Brand Index)"
Supports a demand-side brand/value moat claim.
Showing 5 of 10 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Estate saturation and self-cannibalisation from rapid openings
- Footfall shifts away from traditional locations
- Rent, rates, and wage inflation pressuring shop-level economics
- Input-cost shocks (wages, energy, ingredients) overwhelming efficiency gains
- Operational disruptions in manufacturing or distribution
- Higher capex needs to add capacity (execution risk)
Leading indicators
- Net new openings vs closures and relocations
- Like-for-like sales growth
- Shop contribution margin and payback on new sites
- Gross margin and supply chain cost ratios
- Capacity additions and commissioning milestones
- Service levels (in-stock availability, waste rates)
Curation & Accuracy
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