VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
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Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Linde plc
LIN · Nasdaq Stock Market
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
Linde plc is a global industrial gases leader, reporting operations across the Americas, EMEA and APAC plus an Engineering segment. Its industrial gases moat is driven by long-duration on-site supply contracts with escalation/pass-through mechanics, and dense local production/distribution footprints (plants, pipeline complexes and filling sites) that are difficult to replicate economically because gases are expensive to transport. Scale and operational know-how in building/running air separation and process gas plants support reliability and cost efficiency, while the Engineering segment adds process technology and project execution capabilities. Key risks include aggressive bidding at renewals, customer insourcing, and energy/regulatory shocks (notably in Europe) that pressure volumes and margins.
Primary segment
Americas
Market structure
Oligopoly
Market share
—
HHI: —
Coverage
4 segments · 6 tags
Updated 2025-12-29
Segments
Americas
Industrial gases (Americas)
Revenue
43.8%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
EMEA
Industrial gases (EMEA)
Revenue
25.3%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
APAC
Industrial gases (APAC)
Revenue
20.1%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Engineering
Industrial gas plant engineering & process technology
Revenue
7%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
Americas
Industrial gases (Americas)
FY2024 sales $14,442m; FY2024 segment operating profit $4,550m (segment operating profit is presented on an adjusted basis in segment reporting).
Long Term Contracts
Demand
Long Term Contracts
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 5/5 · 1 evidence
On-site industrial gas supply is typically governed by long-duration total-requirements contracts with minimum purchase commitments and escalation/pass-through mechanics, improving revenue visibility.
Erosion risks
- Contract renewals repriced aggressively in competitive bids
- Large customers insource via customer-owned plants
- Volume declines at key industrial end-markets
Leading indicators
- Net new project announcements / on-site start-ups
- Disclosed remaining performance obligations / minimum purchase requirement estimates
- Base volume and price attainment trends by segment
Counterarguments
- Merchant and packaged gas contracts are materially shorter and more competitive than on-site contracts
- At contract expiry, customers can re-bid or switch suppliers (especially where multiple producers exist)
Physical Network Density
Supply
Physical Network Density
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Industrial gases are costly to transport, so dense local footprints of plants, pipeline complexes and filling/distribution sites create cost and service advantages that are hard to replicate quickly.
Erosion risks
- Competitors build new plants/pipeline capacity near key customer clusters
- Energy availability or pricing shocks reduce local cost advantage
- Major customer site closures/relocations reduce network utilization
Leading indicators
- Regional capacity additions (ASUs, hydrogen plants) by competitors
- Pipeline footprint expansions / new pipeline complexes
- Utilization rates and distribution cost per unit
Counterarguments
- Certain gases (e.g., argon, hydrogen, helium) can be shipped longer distances, weakening local density advantages in those products
- Large competitors can replicate networks over time given sufficient demand density
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Supply
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Large installed base and high fixed-cost assets allow spreading overhead, funding new plants, and improving utilization and logistics efficiency; scale also supports reliability and service levels demanded by critical customers.
Erosion risks
- Overbuilding capacity reduces utilization and weakens unit economics
- Prolonged industrial downturn reduces volumes and operating leverage
- Energy transition capex shifts returns lower if projects are mispriced
Leading indicators
- Segment operating profit margin trend
- Capex efficiency (returns on capital, start-up cadence)
- Project backlog / pipeline for new plants
Counterarguments
- Other global majors also operate at large scale, limiting differentiation
- Regional players can be cost-competitive in localized niches
EMEA
Industrial gases (EMEA)
FY2024 sales $8,352m; FY2024 segment operating profit $2,780m (segment operating profit is presented on an adjusted basis in segment reporting).
Long Term Contracts
Demand
Long Term Contracts
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 5/5 · 1 evidence
On-site industrial gas supply is typically governed by long-duration total-requirements contracts with minimum purchase commitments and escalation/pass-through mechanics, improving revenue visibility.
Erosion risks
- Contract renewals repriced aggressively in competitive bids
- Large customers insource via customer-owned plants
- Volume declines at key industrial end-markets
Leading indicators
- Net new project announcements / on-site start-ups
- Disclosed remaining performance obligations / minimum purchase requirement estimates
- Base volume and price attainment trends by segment
Counterarguments
- Merchant and packaged gas contracts are materially shorter and more competitive than on-site contracts
- At contract expiry, customers can re-bid or switch suppliers (especially where multiple producers exist)
Physical Network Density
Supply
Physical Network Density
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Industrial gases are costly to transport, so dense local footprints of plants, pipeline complexes and filling/distribution sites create cost and service advantages that are hard to replicate quickly.
Erosion risks
- Competitors build new plants/pipeline capacity near key customer clusters
- Energy availability or pricing shocks reduce local cost advantage
- Major customer site closures/relocations reduce network utilization
Leading indicators
- Regional capacity additions (ASUs, hydrogen plants) by competitors
- Pipeline footprint expansions / new pipeline complexes
- Utilization rates and distribution cost per unit
Counterarguments
- Certain gases (e.g., argon, hydrogen, helium) can be shipped longer distances, weakening local density advantages in those products
- Large competitors can replicate networks over time given sufficient demand density
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Supply
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Large installed base and high fixed-cost assets allow spreading overhead, funding new plants, and improving utilization and logistics efficiency; scale also supports reliability and service levels demanded by critical customers.
Erosion risks
- Overbuilding capacity reduces utilization and weakens unit economics
- Prolonged industrial downturn reduces volumes and operating leverage
- Energy transition capex shifts returns lower if projects are mispriced
Leading indicators
- Segment operating profit margin trend
- Capex efficiency (returns on capital, start-up cadence)
- Project backlog / pipeline for new plants
Counterarguments
- Other global majors also operate at large scale, limiting differentiation
- Regional players can be cost-competitive in localized niches
APAC
Industrial gases (APAC)
FY2024 sales $6,632m; FY2024 segment operating profit $1,918m (segment operating profit is presented on an adjusted basis in segment reporting).
Long Term Contracts
Demand
Long Term Contracts
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 5/5 · 1 evidence
On-site industrial gas supply is typically governed by long-duration total-requirements contracts with minimum purchase commitments and escalation/pass-through mechanics, improving revenue visibility.
Erosion risks
- Contract renewals repriced aggressively in competitive bids
- Large customers insource via customer-owned plants
- Volume declines at key industrial end-markets
Leading indicators
- Net new project announcements / on-site start-ups
- Disclosed remaining performance obligations / minimum purchase requirement estimates
- Base volume and price attainment trends by segment
Counterarguments
- Merchant and packaged gas contracts are materially shorter and more competitive than on-site contracts
- At contract expiry, customers can re-bid or switch suppliers (especially where multiple producers exist)
Physical Network Density
Supply
Physical Network Density
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Industrial gases are costly to transport, so dense local footprints of plants, pipeline complexes and filling/distribution sites create cost and service advantages that are hard to replicate quickly.
Erosion risks
- Competitors build new plants/pipeline capacity near key customer clusters
- Energy availability or pricing shocks reduce local cost advantage
- Major customer site closures/relocations reduce network utilization
Leading indicators
- Regional capacity additions (ASUs, hydrogen plants) by competitors
- Pipeline footprint expansions / new pipeline complexes
- Utilization rates and distribution cost per unit
Counterarguments
- Certain gases (e.g., argon, hydrogen, helium) can be shipped longer distances, weakening local density advantages in those products
- Large competitors can replicate networks over time given sufficient demand density
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Supply
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 2 evidence
Large installed base and high fixed-cost assets allow spreading overhead, funding new plants, and improving utilization and logistics efficiency; scale also supports reliability and service levels demanded by critical customers.
Erosion risks
- Overbuilding capacity reduces utilization and weakens unit economics
- Prolonged industrial downturn reduces volumes and operating leverage
- Energy transition capex shifts returns lower if projects are mispriced
Leading indicators
- Segment operating profit margin trend
- Capex efficiency (returns on capital, start-up cadence)
- Project backlog / pipeline for new plants
Counterarguments
- Other global majors also operate at large scale, limiting differentiation
- Regional players can be cost-competitive in localized niches
Engineering
Industrial gas plant engineering & process technology
FY2024 sales $2,322m; FY2024 segment operating profit $410m (segment operating profit is presented on an adjusted basis in segment reporting).
Capex Knowhow Scale
Supply
Capex Knowhow Scale
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Engineering leverages process know-how, project execution experience and specialized equipment manufacturing for air separation, hydrogen and related plants; track record and capabilities matter in large, mission-critical projects.
Erosion risks
- EPC competition drives down margins on new awards
- Project execution risk (cost overruns, schedule delays) on fixed-price contracts
- Cyclical downturn in customer capex reduces order flow
Leading indicators
- Engineering order intake and backlog
- Project gross margin and write-downs
- Customer project sanctioning pace in hydrogen/CCUS
Counterarguments
- EPC/plant building markets are competitive and price-driven, especially in downcycles
- Customers may prefer integrated EPC partners or in-house engineering
IP Choke Point
Legal
IP Choke Point
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Proprietary and patented gas processing/separation technologies can differentiate bids and improve plant efficiency, but advantages are often incremental rather than exclusive.
Erosion risks
- Patent expirations and technology diffusion
- Alternative process routes (new separation methods) reduce differentiation
- Regulatory standards shift, requiring new technology investment
Leading indicators
- R&D spend and new technology deployments
- Patent filings / granted patents and licensing activity
- Win rate in technology-led projects vs commodity EPC work
Counterarguments
- Management states the business is not materially dependent on any single patent family
- Peers have comparable technology portfolios in many core processes
Evidence
Describes on-site supply as 10-20 year total-requirements contracts with minimum purchase requirements and price escalation; also discusses large remaining performance obligations tied to minimum purchases and plant sales.
Notes industrial gases is dominated by a small number of global players ("big three"), consistent with scale-driven barriers.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Contract renewals repriced aggressively in competitive bids
- Large customers insource via customer-owned plants
- Volume declines at key industrial end-markets
- Policy support for clean hydrogen projects weakens, delaying new on-site build-out
- Competitors build new plants/pipeline capacity near key customer clusters
- Energy availability or pricing shocks reduce local cost advantage
Leading indicators
- Net new project announcements / on-site start-ups
- Disclosed remaining performance obligations / minimum purchase requirement estimates
- Base volume and price attainment trends by segment
- Renewal win rate and renewal pricing vs inflation
- Regional capacity additions (ASUs, hydrogen plants) by competitors
- Pipeline footprint expansions / new pipeline complexes
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
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