Erosion risks

• Antitrust remedies forcing venue or promoter divestitures
• New venue capacity reduces scarcity and bargaining leverage
• Artist/agent leverage captures a larger share of economics

Leading indicators

• Count of venues under ownership/operation/long-term lease/exclusive booking
• Venue-level margin trend (concessions/parking/premium)
• Renewal rates for venue rights and leases

Counterarguments

• Local promotion can have low barriers; competitors can rent the same third-party venues
• Artists can multi-home across promoters and extract most tour economics

Erosion risks

• Rival promoters/venue operators (e.g., AEG) bid aggressively for tours and festivals
• Artists shift to shorter-term deals or direct-to-fan models
• Public incidents (safety, pricing controversies) damage venue/artist willingness to partner

Leading indicators

• Events promoted per year
• Gross margin and AOI per attendee
• Share of top-grossing tours and festivals

Counterarguments

• Promoter economics are talent-driven; top artists can play promoters against each other
• Technology and marketing capabilities are increasingly replicable

Erosion risks

• Antitrust remedies (limits on exclusivity, structural separation, conduct restrictions)
• Venues adopt self-ticketing or switch to competitors (AXS, SeatGeek, others)
• Consumer protection rules constrain fee disclosures and resale practices

Leading indicators

• Major venue contract renewal win-rate
• Average contract length / prevalence of exclusivity clauses
• Regulatory/court milestones in DOJ and FTC cases

Counterarguments

• Exclusive contracts can attract regulatory scrutiny and may be curtailed
• Venues set service fees and often retain a large portion of them, limiting direct pricing control

Erosion risks

• Consumers multi-home across apps/marketplaces (network effects weaker than social networks)
• Major tours experiment with alternative distribution or identity-based ticketing
• Service outages or poor UX reduce consumer trust and client retention

Leading indicators

• Fee-bearing tickets sold
• Active ticketing clients
• App/website engagement during major onsales

Counterarguments

• Network effects are limited if consumers search across multiple platforms and resale markets
• Large venues can shift demand by choosing a different primary ticketer

Erosion risks

• Modern SaaS ticketing platforms reduce implementation friction
• API standardization and data portability reduce lock-in
• Regulators mandate interoperability or multi-ticketing

Leading indicators

• Client churn and competitive wins/losses
• Time-to-deploy for new venues (implementation cycle length)
• Use of multi-ticketing or secondary providers by venues

Counterarguments

• Switching costs are episodic (implementation projects) rather than permanent
• Large venues have resources to re-platform if economics justify it

Erosion risks

• Brands shift budgets toward digital/social platforms with better targeting
• Economic downturn reduces discretionary marketing spend
• Competing inventory from sports leagues and streaming platforms

Leading indicators

• Sponsorship renewal rates and backlog
• Number of sponsors and average deal size
• Yield per event/venue (pricing per activation/signage)

Counterarguments

• Advertisers can replicate reach via sports sponsorships and digital media buys
• Campaign measurement/attribution may favor digital channels over live-event inventory

Erosion risks

• Venue/festival mix shifts away from in-person events
• New competing venues/festivals expand alternative inventory
• Regulatory/permit constraints on new festivals and venue expansions

Leading indicators

• Number of venues/festivals under control
• Utilization (events per venue / attendance)
• Sponsorship revenue per attendee

Counterarguments

• Inventory is not unique in many markets; local venues can offer substitutes
• Sponsor ROI depends on artist lineup and attendance, which varies annually

Erosion risks

• Sponsors renegotiate or exit deals in recessions
• Brand safety concerns from event incidents
• Measurement challenges reduce willingness to sign long-term commitments

Leading indicators

• Contracted sponsorship backlog trend
• Churn/renewal rates among top sponsors
• Mix of multi-year vs single-year deals

Counterarguments

• Even multi-year deals are discretionary and can be renegotiated
• Sponsor demand depends on touring volume and cultural relevance