VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ EXPANSION-STAGE STOCKS & SCALING SETUPS ★
NO ADVICE
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
RYAN · NYSE
This analysis is generated by AI and supervised by humans. Scores reflect business model strength, scaling runway, and valuation setup. Mistakes can happen.
Overview
International specialty insurance firm providing distribution and underwriting solutions - wholesale brokerage, binding authority, and underwriting management - for retail brokers, agents, and insurance carriers.
Thesis summary
Ryan Specialty is a specialty insurance distributor built around wholesale brokerage + delegated authority underwriting (binding authority / MGUs). The model is already proven: durable double-digit organic revenue growth in a structurally attractive E&S/specialty market, plus strong Adjusted EBITDAC margins (~low-30s). The next leg is execution-driven throughput - adding/retaining high-producing brokers and underwriters, scaling underwriting management, expanding internationally, and compounding via disciplined M&A - while maintaining margin discipline and de-leveraging over time.
Investment Thesis
Why Now?
Recent results show the growth engine remains intact (organic growth re-accelerated to mid-teens in Q3 2025 after a softer Q2), while management is leaning into a talent-investment window and continuing bolt-on M&A. If Ryan sustains double-digit organic growth with ~31%+ Adjusted EBITDAC margins, the market can re-rate the stock as a durable compounder rather than a purely cycle-driven broker.
Scaling Thesis
Scale is driven by (1) producer capacity (recruit/retain brokers + underwriters), (2) delegated authority expansion (more underwriting management programs and binding authority capability), (3) cross-sell/expanded client relationships in complex specialty lines, (4) M&A to add niche expertise + geography, and (5) operating leverage via centralized platforms/tech - while keeping variable comp aligned to performance.
Competitive Moat
Specialty talent density (brokers/underwriters), deep carrier relationships and delegated authority capabilities, broad specialty product breadth, and an M&A integration engine that can add niche capabilities and expand geography. In specialty/E&S, distribution and underwriting expertise are the product.
Key Assumptions
Valuation Scenarios
Illustrative: assumes slower growth and modest margin compression. EV = (2028E revenue * 29% Adj. EBITDAC margin) * 14x. Equity value assumes ~279M fully diluted shares and net debt ~ $3.25B (using Q3 2025 cash/debt as a baseline).
Illustrative: sustained double-digit organic growth + steady margins. EV = (2028E revenue * 32% Adj. EBITDAC margin) * 18x. Equity value assumes ~279M fully diluted shares and net debt ~ $3.25B.
Illustrative: strong producer hiring + underwriting management expansion + successful M&A drive faster growth and modest margin expansion. EV = (2028E revenue * 34% Adj. EBITDAC margin) * 22x. Equity value assumes ~279M fully diluted shares and net debt ~ $3.25B.
Catalysts
Q4/FY2025 results and 2026 outlook (organic growth + margin cadence).
Clear evidence that organic growth remains double-digit and margins hold despite investments can reset expectations and expand the multiple.
Producer/underwriter hiring translates into sustained organic growth (>=10%) across 2026-2027.
Higher producer capacity compounds revenue with attractive incremental margins, reinforcing the "execution runway" narrative.
Close and integrate underwriting-management acquisitions (e.g., Stewart Specialty Risk Underwriting) and keep M&A engine active in niche specialty lines.
Adds niche capabilities/TAM and can accelerate growth while deepening delegated authority scale.
Operating leverage shows up as Adjusted EBITDAC margin stabilizes/expands after the investment cycle.
Margin stability while growing supports a higher-quality earnings power narrative and improves de-leveraging capacity.
Risks
Specialty/E&S market tailwinds slow (pricing cycle softens, less placement urgency), reducing organic growth and commission intensity.
Mitigation: Track organic growth rate, line-of-business commentary (property vs casualty), and evidence of share gains vs peers; avoid adding size if growth becomes M&A-only.
Competition for brokers/underwriters drives higher compensation costs and/or retention issues, pressuring margins.
Mitigation: Monitor Adjusted compensation and benefits ratio / margin trends and management commentary on hiring ROI; require margin floor before increasing position size.
Acquisition integration issues (cultural fit, producer retention, systems) or overpaying for M&A reduces returns and distracts execution.
Mitigation: Prefer bolt-ons with clear strategic fit; track post-deal organic growth, attrition, and margin stability; watch for rising restructuring/acquisition costs.
Higher rates and leverage amplify downside if growth slows; interest expense can cap equity compounding.
Mitigation: Track debt vs earnings power (Adj. EBITDAC), refinancing cadence, and cash generation; require a credible path to de-leveraging.
Contingent commissions and market mix create quarter-to-quarter volatility that can confuse the growth narrative.
Mitigation: Anchor on organic revenue growth rate and multi-quarter trends; decompose results between core commissions and contingent items.
Scale Readiness
Organic revenue growth re-accelerated to 15.0% in Q3 2025 after a softer Q2 (7.1%).
Management commentary highlights an ongoing opportunity to hire broking/underwriting talent; execution here is a key driver.
Underwriting management is an explicit growth vector; recent M&A expands RSUM footprint (e.g., SSRU).
Delegated authority and specialty distribution depend on strong carrier capacity; platform positioning appears durable.
Track record of bolt-ons; continuing international/niche expansion via acquisitions.
Adj. EBITDAC margin has stayed ~low-30s while the company invests in growth; needs proof of margin stability through the investment cycle.
International expansion is underway (e.g., Canada-focused MGU acquisition) but still early as a share of the overall platform.
Debt principal ~ $3.4B vs cash ~$153.5M (Q3 2025); de-leveraging trajectory matters for equity compounding.
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.