VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ EXPANSION-STAGE STOCKS & SCALING SETUPS ★
NO ADVICE
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Alarm.com
ALRM · NASDAQ
This analysis is generated by AI and supervised by humans. Scores reflect business model strength, scaling runway, and valuation setup. Mistakes can happen.
Overview
Cloud-based software platform for the intelligently connected property (security, video, access control, automation, and energy management), sold primarily through service provider and dealer partners; combines high-margin recurring SaaS/licensing with hardware and adjacent services.
Thesis summary
Alarm.com runs a proven partner-distributed recurring revenue engine: SaaS and license revenue is growing ~high single digits/low double digits, renewal rates are high (94% trailing 12 months ended Sep 30, 2025), and SaaS gross margin is ~mid/high-80s. With the core model validated, the next leg is execution: (1) drive more throughput via partner channel enablement and attach of higher-value modules (video analytics, remote video monitoring, access control), (2) expand in commercial/multi-family and international markets, and (3) compound operating leverage as revenue grows faster than operating expense. If ALRM sustains its renewal rate and keeps SaaS growth steady while expanding adjusted EBITDA margin, the stock can re-rate from a 'steady grower' multiple to a 'durable compounding platform' multiple.
Investment Thesis
Why Now?
The setup is attractive into 2026 because (a) FY2025 guidance was raised after Q3 2025 (SaaS & license ~$685M; total revenue ~$1.00B; adj. EBITDA ~$199M), (b) the 2026 convertible note maturity is an imminent overhang/resolution event (refinance/settlement clarity), and (c) recent product momentum in AI video analytics and energy/EV managed charging highlights the upsell/adjacency path without needing a new core product.
Scaling Thesis
Scaling is driven by (1) a repeatable partner GTM (security dealers/telcos/monitoring providers) that can add subscribers efficiently, (2) module attach/ARPU expansion on top of an existing subscriber base, (3) portability into commercial and international deployments with a growing device + software portfolio, and (4) operating leverage from a predominantly software gross profit pool as the platform scales.
Competitive Moat
Embedded integrations and workflow lock-in across monitoring/service providers + installed base; a broad, integrated platform (security + video + automation + energy) that is hard to replicate end-to-end; data/software flywheel in video analytics; and high switching costs for providers once installed across fleets of customer sites.
Key Assumptions
Valuation Scenarios
Illustrative 2028E: $1.20B revenue, 20% adj EBITDA margin, 13x EV/adj EBITDA. Assumes slower growth + modest multiple compression. Equity value adds net cash (~$79M) and assumes ~60M diluted shares.
Illustrative 2028E: $1.35B revenue, 24% adj EBITDA margin, 18x EV/adj EBITDA. Assumes steady SaaS growth + attach-driven mix improvement and operating leverage. Equity value adds net cash (~$79M) and assumes ~60M diluted shares.
Illustrative 2028E: $1.50B revenue, 26% adj EBITDA margin, 22x EV/adj EBITDA. Assumes stronger attach in video/commercial + sustained renewal and premium durability multiple. Equity value adds net cash (~$79M) and assumes ~60M diluted shares.
Catalysts
FY2025/Q4 results and 2026 outlook (SaaS growth, margins, and attach commentary).
Confirmation of steady SaaS growth + margin/FCF durability can support re-rating toward a higher-quality compounder multiple.
Resolution of the 0% convertible senior notes due January 15, 2026 (settlement/refinance/convert) with minimal disruption to strategy.
Removes an overhang and can clarify dilution/FCF path and capital allocation capacity.
Evidence that AI video analytics + RVM offerings (incl. OpenEye commercial video) improve module attach and expand ARPU without lowering retention.
Higher attach lifts SaaS mix and expands long-term earnings power, supporting operating leverage.
Growth in energy/EV managed charging programs (EnergyHub partnerships) becomes a more material contributor to recurring platform revenue.
Adds incremental growth vector and diversification, improving perceived runway.
Risks
Partner/service-provider channel concentration and consolidation reduces subscriber additions or weakens negotiating leverage on economics.
Mitigation: Track SaaS growth, partner commentary, and renewal rate; size position for channel risk and require stability in core SaaS trends before adding.
Increased competition from security/video ecosystems (DIY, big tech, or competing platforms) pressures pricing or slows module attach.
Mitigation: Monitor SaaS gross margin, attach/product mix, and partner adoption of new modules; prefer entries where valuation offers margin of safety.
Convertible notes create dilution and/or cash outflow risk depending on settlement/refinance decisions and market conditions.
Mitigation: Model dilution using diluted share counts; watch management's stated intent for settlement and any capped call coverage; limit sizing until resolved.
Acquisitions and new adjacencies (commercial video, energy/EV, remote monitoring) fail to scale or create distraction and cost creep.
Mitigation: Require evidence of attach and margin discipline; track operating expense growth vs revenue and incremental profitability.
Video analytics, connected devices, and data handling increase exposure to privacy/security regulation and reputational risk.
Mitigation: Monitor disclosure on security incidents and regulatory changes; prefer businesses with strong compliance posture and conservative assumptions.
Scale Readiness
TTM SaaS renewal rate reported at 94% (ended Sep 30, 2025) and SaaS gross margin ~mid/high-80s.
Proven partner-led model; continued SaaS growth and guidance raises suggest distribution throughput remains healthy.
Ongoing new capabilities (AI video analytics, deterrence/RVM, energy programs) support attach-led growth thesis.
Commercial video (OpenEye) and international-fit devices expand runway, but scaling breadth still developing.
Adjusted EBITDA has improved, but sustained margin expansion depends on continued SaaS mix + disciplined opex.
Net cash position is positive, but 2026 note maturity is a near-term decision point for dilution/uses of cash.
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.