VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
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Friday, January 2, 2026
CSX Corporation
CSX · NASDAQ
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
CSX is a U.S. freight transportation company anchored by an eastern rail network, complemented by a smaller trucking subsidiary (Quality Carriers). The core rail moat is supply-side: durable rights-of-way and dense, difficult-to-replicate track infrastructure that supports corridor coverage and cost-competitive bulk transport. Revenue is primarily merchandise carload, with additional exposure to intermodal (port-linked container flows) and coal (including export coal). Key pressures include trucking competition, regulatory intervention, weather/infrastructure disruption, and secular shifts away from coal-fired generation.
Primary segment
Merchandise (Rail)
Market structure
Oligopoly
Market share
—
HHI: —
Coverage
5 segments · 7 tags
Updated 2026-01-02
Segments
Merchandise (Rail)
Eastern U.S. rail freight transportation (merchandise carload)
Revenue
61.2%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Intermodal (Rail)
Eastern U.S. intermodal transportation (rail + intermodal terminals; rail vs truck)
Revenue
14.1%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
Coal (Rail)
Coal transportation (domestic utility coal + export coal) via rail
Revenue
15.5%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Trucking (Quality Carriers)
North American bulk liquid chemical trucking (tank truckload)
Revenue
5.8%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
Other Revenue (Rail/Ancillary)
Rail accessorial and ancillary revenue (e.g., demurrage and other items)
Revenue
3.4%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
Merchandise (Rail)
Eastern U.S. rail freight transportation (merchandise carload)
Revenue share computed from CSX FY2024 Form 10-K revenue disaggregation: Merchandise $8.903B of $14.540B total.
Physical Network Density
Supply
Physical Network Density
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
CSXT's large, dense fixed rail network in the Eastern U.S. is extremely hard to replicate, supporting corridor coverage and local density advantages.
Erosion risks
- Regulatory forced access / open access mandates
- Severe weather damaging infrastructure
- Modal shift to trucking via autonomy/electrification
Leading indicators
- Service metrics (dwell, on-time performance)
- Network capacity investments and bottleneck relief
- Regulatory proceedings affecting rail access/pricing
Counterarguments
- Many lanes remain contestable versus trucking depending on service and price
- Shippers can re-route some traffic via interchange/short lines
Permits Rights Of Way
Legal
Permits Rights Of Way
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Rail rights-of-way and controlled track infrastructure create high barriers to entry versus modes that rely on publicly funded rights-of-way; permitting/building new rail corridors is difficult.
Erosion risks
- Policy changes increasing truck size/weight limits
- Regulatory intervention on rates/service
- Passenger rail expansion constraining freight slots
Leading indicators
- Changes in STB regulation/enforcement
- State/federal infrastructure policy affecting competing modes
- Trackage rights/open access proposals
Counterarguments
- Rights-of-way do not guarantee pricing power where trucking is viable
- In some markets, barge/pipeline alternatives constrain rail
Capex Knowhow Scale
Supply
Capex Knowhow Scale
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
High fixed costs and specialized equipment/maintenance know-how favor scaled incumbents; limited suppliers for core rail equipment increase the advantage of established relationships and planning.
Erosion risks
- Supply disruptions in critical rail equipment
- Labor cost inflation and availability
- Technology diffusion reducing operational differentiation
Leading indicators
- Capex as % of revenue; state-of-good-repair spend
- Supplier lead times for locomotives/rail/ties
- Labor availability and wage settlements
Counterarguments
- All Class I railroads share similar capex requirements; scale advantages may be incremental, not exclusive
Intermodal (Rail)
Eastern U.S. intermodal transportation (rail + intermodal terminals; rail vs truck)
Revenue share computed from CSX FY2024 Form 10-K revenue disaggregation: Intermodal $2.047B of $14.540B total.
Physical Network Density
Supply
Physical Network Density
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
CSX's rail network and terminal/port connectivity support intermodal flows tied to import distribution and inland corridors in the East.
Erosion risks
- Port congestion or labor disruptions
- Chassis/container availability constraints
- Trucking technology improvements (autonomy/electrification)
Leading indicators
- Intermodal volumes and revenue per unit
- East Coast port throughput trends
- Service reliability (on-time, dwell) versus truck alternatives
Counterarguments
- Intermodal is highly price-competitive with trucking; customers can mode-shift quickly
- Rail-to-rail competition via interchange can constrain pricing on some lanes
Operational Excellence
Supply
Operational Excellence
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Efficiency improvements (including fuel efficiency) can lower unit costs, which matters most in price-sensitive intermodal competition versus trucking.
Erosion risks
- Service deterioration from congestion/crew shortages
- Union wage escalation outpacing productivity gains
- Competitors matching similar efficiency programs
Leading indicators
- Operating ratio trend
- Fuel consumption efficiency metrics (if disclosed)
- Terminal productivity and network velocity
Counterarguments
- Operational programs are replicable across Class I peers
- Intermodal customers prioritize price/service; gains may be competed away
Coal (Rail)
Coal transportation (domestic utility coal + export coal) via rail
Revenue share computed from CSX FY2024 Form 10-K revenue disaggregation: Coal $2.247B of $14.540B total.
Geographic Natural
Supply
Geographic Natural
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
CSX's eastern network and port connectivity support export coal routing; for certain origin-destination pairs, rail remains the practical long-haul option.
Erosion risks
- Structural decline in coal-fired generation
- Volatility in seaborne coal prices and export demand
- Regulatory and ESG pressures on coal supply chain
Leading indicators
- Export coal benchmark prices and volumes
- Utility coal burn and stockpiles in CSX territory
- Coal carloads and revenue per unit
Counterarguments
- Coal demand is cyclical/declining; moat in a shrinking end-market has limited value
- Some corridors can shift to barge where geography permits
Permits Rights Of Way
Legal
Permits Rights Of Way
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Established bulk rail corridors and controlled rights-of-way remain a barrier to entry for coal routes that depend on rail infrastructure.
Erosion risks
- Regulatory constraints on rail operations
- Extreme weather disrupting key corridors
Leading indicators
- Regulatory actions affecting rail operations
- Capital spend on corridor resilience
Counterarguments
- Barriers to entry do not prevent demand loss from fuel switching (natural gas/renewables)
Trucking (Quality Carriers)
North American bulk liquid chemical trucking (tank truckload)
Revenue share computed from CSX FY2024 Form 10-K revenue disaggregation: Trucking $0.844B of $14.540B total.
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Supply
Scale Economies Unit Cost
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Quality Carriers' leadership position in bulk liquid chemical trucking suggests scale benefits (fleet density, purchasing, utilization) in a specialized niche versus smaller carriers.
Erosion risks
- Trucking capacity cycles and rate compression
- Safety incidents or regulatory non-compliance
- Customer multi-sourcing reducing pricing leverage
Leading indicators
- Chemical trucking spot/contract rate indices
- Segment margin trend and utilization (if disclosed)
- Insurance and claims cost trend
Counterarguments
- Even niche trucking is competitive and customers can switch carriers
- Scale does not prevent margin compression in down cycles
Other Revenue (Rail/Ancillary)
Rail accessorial and ancillary revenue (e.g., demurrage and other items)
Revenue share computed from CSX FY2024 Form 10-K revenue disaggregation: Other $0.499B of $14.540B total.
Permits Rights Of Way
Legal
Permits Rights Of Way
Strength
Durability
Confidence
Evidence
Ancillary rail charges (including demurrage-type items) are tied to the operation of CSX-controlled infrastructure and network rules; third parties cannot easily replicate them on CSX corridors.
Erosion risks
- Regulatory limits on accessorial fees
- Customer pushback and contract renegotiations
Leading indicators
- Trends in demurrage/accessorial revenue
- Regulatory actions affecting rail charges
Counterarguments
- Accessorial fees are often negotiated/contested and can be regulated or competitively constrained
Evidence
Filing describes CSX Rail Network as about 20,000 route-miles across the eastern U.S.
Network scale supports a durable physical network moat.
Properties section reports total track miles of roughly 35.5k at Dec 2024.
Track-mile footprint is a direct proxy for network density and replacement cost.
10-K provides a table of 2024 revenue by line of business (Merchandise, Intermodal, Coal, Trucking, Other) totaling $14.540B.
Used to compute segment revenue shares in this dataset.
Risk factors contrast public rights-of-way used by other modes with railroads' responsibility to build/maintain their own networks.
Supports the scarcity and defensibility of rail rights-of-way.
Leases note a long-duration right-of-way lease with the State of Georgia (about 137 miles; about 50-year term).
Example of long-duration control of rail corridor assets.
Showing 5 of 17 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Regulatory forced access / open access mandates
- Severe weather damaging infrastructure
- Modal shift to trucking via autonomy/electrification
- Policy changes increasing truck size/weight limits
- Regulatory intervention on rates/service
- Passenger rail expansion constraining freight slots
Leading indicators
- Service metrics (dwell, on-time performance)
- Network capacity investments and bottleneck relief
- Regulatory proceedings affecting rail access/pricing
- Changes in STB regulation/enforcement
- State/federal infrastructure policy affecting competing modes
- Trackage rights/open access proposals
Curation & Accuracy
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