Erosion risks

• Abbott can use FreeStyle Libre scale and lower pricing to pressure sensor economics.
• Longer sensor wear periods can reduce replacement frequency per user.
• Payors and pharmacy channels can push rebates, formularies and lower-price alternatives.

Leading indicators

• Net customer additions excluding Stelo
• Disposable sensor volume growth
• Rebate eligibility and channel mix

Counterarguments

• Recurring sensor use is not exclusive if payors, clinicians or patients switch to lower-cost alternatives.
• A larger OTC and wellness market may favor price and convenience over Dexcom's premium clinical positioning.

Erosion risks

• Automated insulin delivery partners may support Abbott or other CGM alternatives.
• iCGM interoperability can make it easier for competitors to plug into the same devices.
• Consumer technology partners may capture the user interface and data relationship.

Leading indicators

• Number of active pump and smart-pen integrations
• Automated insulin delivery adoption using Dexcom sensors
• New Apple Watch, Garmin and digital health app integrations

Counterarguments

• Interoperability is valuable but can reduce switching friction if devices support multiple CGM brands.
• Pump and consumer-tech partners may have bargaining power over roadmap priorities and economics.

Erosion risks

• The March 2025 FDA warning letter creates quality-system execution risk.
• Regulatory standards can help competitors once they also clear iCGM requirements.
• Coverage or reimbursement changes can reduce access or shift demand to lower-cost devices.

Leading indicators

• FDA warning-letter remediation status
• New 510(k), CE Mark and international authorizations
• Medicare, Medicaid and commercial coverage breadth

Counterarguments

• Regulatory clearance is a barrier to entry but not a proprietary right.
• Abbott and Medtronic also have regulated CGM platforms and reimbursement relationships.

Erosion risks

• Privacy, cybersecurity or health-data compliance failures could reduce trust in the workflow layer.
• Clinicians and patients can adopt multi-vendor diabetes data platforms.
• EHR, pump and app partners may standardize CGM data and reduce vendor-specific lock-in.

Leading indicators

• Dexcom Clarity usage and clinician adoption
• Share and Follow active usage
• Time-in-range and A1C outcome publications

Counterarguments

• Data workflow lock-in is softer than contractual lock-in because patients can switch devices at prescription or refill cycles.
• Third-party diabetes management platforms can normalize CGM data across brands.

Erosion risks

• Product failures, inaccurate readings, recalls or FDA enforcement could impair patient trust.
• Abbott's Libre brand has broader global scale and lower-cost consumer positioning.
• OTC glucose biosensing may become more commoditized as wellness entrants launch.

Leading indicators

• Prescription and OTC customer growth
• G7 15 Day adoption after launch
• Complaint, replacement and adverse-event rates

Counterarguments

• Brand trust can be offset by affordability and payer formulary placement.
• Clinical users may trust multiple FDA-cleared CGM brands rather than a single proprietary brand.