VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES ★
PRICE: 5 CENTS
Thursday, December 25, 2025
The Boeing Company
BA · New York Stock Exchange
Weighted average of segment moat scores, combining moat strength, durability, confidence, market structure, pricing power, and market share.
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Overview
Boeing is a major aerospace firm organized into Commercial Airplanes (BCA), Defense, Space & Security (BDS), and Global Services (BGS). BCA competes primarily with Airbus in large commercial jets, where certification barriers and program scale are high, but execution and regulatory constraints can materially weaken performance and pricing leverage. BDS is one of a small group of prime contractors serving U.S. and allied governments, with multi-year contract structures shaping economics. BGS monetizes the installed base through parts, maintenance, training, and digital services, though much of the market remains competitively bid.
Primary segment
Defense, Space & Security (BDS)
Market structure
Oligopoly
Market share
—
HHI: —
Coverage
3 segments · 5 tags
Updated 2025-12-23
Segments
Commercial Airplanes (BCA)
Large commercial jet aircraft (narrow-body and wide-body) manufacturing
Revenue
34.3%
Structure
Duopoly
Pricing
weak
Share
28%-34% (implied)
Peers
Defense, Space & Security (BDS)
Defense aerospace & space prime contracting (air, space, and mission systems)
Revenue
35.8%
Structure
Oligopoly
Pricing
weak
Share
—
Peers
Global Services (BGS)
Commercial & defense aerospace services (parts, MRO, training, logistics, digital analytics)
Revenue
29.9%
Structure
Competitive
Pricing
moderate
Share
—
Peers
Moat Claims
Commercial Airplanes (BCA)
Large commercial jet aircraft (narrow-body and wide-body) manufacturing
Revenue share normalized to 2024 segment revenues disclosed in Boeing's FY2024 Form 10-K (filed 2025-02-03).
Regulated Standards Pipe
Legal
Regulated Standards Pipe
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
New aircraft/derivatives must clear certification gates (FAA and peer regulators); compliance and production quality systems are regulated.
Erosion risks
- Regulatory enforcement actions or production rate caps
- Certification process changes reducing incumbent advantage
- State-backed entrants eventually achieving Western certifications
Leading indicators
- FAA production rate approvals/constraints (e.g., 737 monthly rate caps)
- 777X / 737-10 certification milestones and schedule slips
- Frequency/severity of quality escapes and in-service incidents
Counterarguments
- Regulators can also constrain incumbents (oversight, rate caps), reducing near-term output advantage
- State-supported entrants (e.g., COMAC) may meet certification requirements with time and subsidies
Capex Knowhow Scale
Supply
Capex Knowhow Scale
Strength: 4/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 2 evidence
Large commercial aircraft programs require massive engineering, manufacturing, and supply-chain scale; accumulated know-how and process capability are difficult to replicate.
Erosion risks
- Supplier concentration and quality issues
- Learning curve resets from production disruptions
- Cost overruns on new programs
Leading indicators
- Unit cost trends and abnormal production costs
- Supplier on-time delivery and defect rates
- Program launch cadence and R&D intensity
Counterarguments
- Scale can become a liability if fixed costs stay high during production interruptions
- Airbus already has comparable scale; this is closer to table stakes versus the main rival
Design In Qualification
Demand
Design In Qualification
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Airlines' fleet commonality, pilot/maintenance training, and operational integration make switching between aircraft families costly and slow.
Erosion risks
- Leasing market reduces airline lock-in
- Standardized avionics/training reducing differences
- Airbus product cadence advantage in key categories
Leading indicators
- Airline fleet mix changes (single-aisle share by OEM)
- Share of new orders by OEM (narrow-body and wide-body)
- Lease rates and secondary market liquidity for aircraft families
Counterarguments
- Airlines can and do operate mixed fleets; switching costs are meaningful but not prohibitive
- Aircraft lessors and OEM incentives can offset switching costs during fleet renewal cycles
Defense, Space & Security (BDS)
Defense aerospace & space prime contracting (air, space, and mission systems)
Revenue share normalized to 2024 segment revenues disclosed in Boeing's FY2024 Form 10-K (filed 2025-02-03).
Government Contracting Relationships
Legal
Government Contracting Relationships
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Past performance and procurement track record matter for major defense programs; awards often flow to a small set of primes.
Erosion risks
- Defense budget shifts and program cancellations
- Bid protest losses / weak past performance ratings
- Geopolitical export restrictions
Leading indicators
- Win rate on large DoD competitions
- Defense backlog and funded backlog trend
- Contract type mix (fixed price vs cost-plus)
Counterarguments
- Defense procurement is competitive; incumbents frequently lose recompetes
- Government retains termination rights and significant pricing/contractual leverage
Long Term Contracts
Demand
Long Term Contracts
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 4/5 · 1 evidence
Multi-year contracts can create revenue visibility once a platform is in sustainment, but often with strict performance clauses and negotiated pricing.
Erosion risks
- Fixed-price development overruns
- Schedule delays and penalties
- Shifts to open systems lowering lock-in
Leading indicators
- EAC changes and reach-forward losses
- On-time delivery and test milestone attainment
- Award-fee outcomes on cost-plus programs
Counterarguments
- Long-term contracts can be low-margin and shift risk to the contractor (especially fixed-price)
- Government can unilaterally change scope and retains termination for convenience
Compliance Advantage
Legal
Compliance Advantage
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Classified and regulated defense markets require compliance systems, security clearances, and export-control processes that raise barriers for new entrants.
Erosion risks
- Compliance failures leading to suspension/debarment
- Policy changes increasing disclosure requirements
- Cybersecurity incidents
Leading indicators
- DoD cybersecurity compliance posture (CMMC and equivalents)
- Regulatory findings / consent agreements
- Export license approvals/denials
Counterarguments
- Most major primes already have compliance infrastructure; advantage is limited versus peers
- New entrants can partner/acquire capabilities to meet compliance requirements
Global Services (BGS)
Commercial & defense aerospace services (parts, MRO, training, logistics, digital analytics)
Revenue share normalized to 2024 segment revenues disclosed in Boeing's FY2024 Form 10-K (filed 2025-02-03).
Service Field Network
Supply
Service Field Network
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
A global support footprint (training, logistics, maintenance engineering, modifications) improves responsiveness versus smaller providers.
Erosion risks
- Independent MRO competition and airline insourcing
- Parts PMA competition and used serviceable material
- OEM reputation spillover from product issues
Leading indicators
- Services revenue growth vs global MRO spend
- Customer satisfaction trends
- Attach rate of Boeing services on new deliveries
Counterarguments
- Many services are price-competitive and can be performed by independent MROs
- Airlines and defense customers can dual-source parts and maintenance where regulations allow
Installed Base Consumables
Demand
Installed Base Consumables
Strength: 3/5 · Durability: durable · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Large installed base of Boeing platforms creates recurring demand for spares, training, engineering mods, and technical documentation over long asset lives.
Erosion risks
- Fleet retirements reducing installed base over time
- Open parts ecosystems and alternative parts certification
- OEM pricing pressure from airlines/lessors
Leading indicators
- Global Boeing fleet size and utilization trends
- Spare parts price/margin trends vs PMA penetration
- Share of services tied to long-term support contracts
Counterarguments
- Aftermarket profit pools attract competition and regulatory scrutiny (right-to-repair, parts standards)
- Some airlines self-perform maintenance and source from multiple parts distributors
Data Workflow Lockin
Demand
Data Workflow Lockin
Strength: 2/5 · Durability: medium · Confidence: 3/5 · 1 evidence
Digital services and analytics can embed Boeing into workflows, but competition from independent software and airline systems limits lock-in.
Erosion risks
- Commoditization of analytics tools
- Interoperability standards lowering switching costs
- Cybersecurity incidents reducing trust
Leading indicators
- Digital services recurring revenue and retention (if disclosed)
- Number of connected aircraft / active users on Boeing platforms
- Partnership wins with airlines and lessors
Counterarguments
- Airlines often standardize on third-party MRO software; Boeing is not the default workflow hub
- Data advantages may be diluted by multi-OEM fleets and data-sharing agreements
Evidence
New aircraft models and new derivative aircraft are required to obtain FAA certification prior to entry into service.
Certification is a hard gate for new commercial aircraft programs.
Unpatented research, development and engineering skills... make an important contribution to our business.
Boeing highlights accumulated engineering know-how as important to the business.
Access to capital... is the paramount factor that determines competitiveness in the global LCA industry.
Supports the scale/capital barrier to competing in large civil aircraft.
Factors... include... product line and commonality, global support networks, and certification... to Western airworthiness standards.
Cites commonality as a competitiveness factor, consistent with fleet/qualification switching costs.
...delivered 348 commercial airplanes in 2024...
Boeing's disclosed 2024 commercial deliveries.
Showing 5 of 13 sources.
Risks & Indicators
Erosion risks
- Regulatory enforcement actions or production rate caps
- Certification process changes reducing incumbent advantage
- State-backed entrants eventually achieving Western certifications
- Supplier concentration and quality issues
- Learning curve resets from production disruptions
- Cost overruns on new programs
Leading indicators
- FAA production rate approvals/constraints (e.g., 737 monthly rate caps)
- 777X / 737-10 certification milestones and schedule slips
- Frequency/severity of quality escapes and in-service incidents
- Unit cost trends and abnormal production costs
- Supplier on-time delivery and defect rates
- Program launch cadence and R&D intensity
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.