VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ EXPANSION-STAGE STOCKS & SCALING SETUPS ★
NO ADVICE
Sunday, January 11, 2026
SPS Commerce
SPSC · NASDAQ
This analysis is generated by AI and supervised by humans. Scores reflect business model strength, scaling runway, and valuation setup. Mistakes can happen.
Overview
Cloud-based retail supply chain network and services (EDI, fulfillment, analytics) connecting retailers and trading partners; primarily subscription/recurring with strong operating leverage.
Thesis summary
SPS Commerce is a mission-critical retail network + SaaS platform with a proven, repeatable model (99 consecutive quarters of revenue growth through Q3 2025) and a high-recurring revenue mix (~94-96%). The expansion-stage leg is less about finding PMF and more about scaling throughput: widening the network, growing ARPU (wallet share) via broader product adoption (fulfillment, analytics, and acquired capabilities), expanding internationally, and compounding operating leverage (adjusted EBITDA margin ~30-32% in 2025 quarters). If SPS sustains mid-teens+ growth while holding margins, earnings power and capital returns (buybacks) can drive multi-year equity compounding.
Investment Thesis
Why Now?
Growth decelerated in 2025 (Q3 revenue +16% YoY and Q4 guide +13-14%) and FY2025 revenue guidance was reduced versus earlier-year ranges, while profitability stayed strong and the company authorized a new $100M repurchase program effective Dec 1, 2025. The setup is execution over narrative: watch for stabilization in growth/ARPU and continued margin discipline as go-to-market leadership transitions to a new Chief Commercial Officer.
Scaling Thesis
Scale comes from (1) network-led demand: retailer/buyer requirements pull suppliers into SPS; (2) ARPU expansion by attaching more modules and services per customer; (3) geographic expansion using the same connectivity/compliance playbook; and (4) operating leverage as revenue scales faster than sales/R&D/G&A. M&A (e.g., SupplyPike, Carbon6) can accelerate product breadth and customer footprint if integration is clean and cross-sell is executed.
Competitive Moat
Large, embedded trading-partner network; deep retailer compliance/EDI expertise; integration switching costs; default workflow position in customer operations; and a data layer that can power automation/AI use cases across the network.
Key Assumptions
Valuation Scenarios
Illustrative EV/Adj EBITDA: 2028E revenue $1.0B, 26% adj EBITDA margin, 10x EV/adj EBITDA. Assumes sustained growth slowdown + multiple compression. Price assumes ~38M shares and ~+$150M net cash.
Illustrative EV/Adj EBITDA: 2028E revenue $1.15B, 30% adj EBITDA margin, 14x EV/adj EBITDA. Assumes stable mid-teens growth, ARPU expansion, and margin durability. Price assumes ~38M shares and ~+$150M net cash.
Illustrative EV/Adj EBITDA: 2028E revenue $1.35B, 33% adj EBITDA margin, 18x EV/adj EBITDA. Assumes re-acceleration, strong cross-sell (ARPU), and premium multiple persistence. Price assumes ~38M shares and ~+$150M net cash.
Catalysts
FY2025/Q4 results + FY2026 guide: confirms durability of demand and margin profile after 2025 deceleration.
A steady 2026 growth outlook (or re-acceleration) with EBITDA margin holding ~30%+ can re-rate the multiple.
ARPU (annualized recurring revenue per customer) stabilizes and trends upward as acquisition-driven mix effects fade and cross-sell expands.
Improves confidence that network expansion converts into dollars, not just logos; supports sustained growth and higher terminal margins.
Execution of the $100M repurchase program alongside GTM scaling under the new Chief Commercial Officer.
Provides a valuation floor and boosts per-share compounding if fundamentals remain stable; leadership transition can unlock new geo/segment growth.
Risks
Retail and supplier customers extend decision cycles or reduce spend, driving prolonged growth deceleration.
Mitigation: Track revenue growth + recurring revenue growth; watch commentary on pipeline, churn, and budget scrutiny. Size position to tolerate a slow year.
Customer mix shifts toward lower-ARPU cohorts (e.g., acquired customer bases), masking weaker expansion economics and compressing ARPU.
Mitigation: Monitor ARPU and the split between 1P vs 3P customer counts; look for ARPU stabilization and clear cross-sell traction.
Competitive pressure in EDI/compliance tooling (pricing, feature catch-up) slows new logo adds or increases churn.
Mitigation: Watch win/loss commentary, retention indicators, and gross margin trends; require evidence of continued network pull and customer satisfaction.
Acquisition integration (product, data, GTM) fails to deliver cross-sell, or distracts management and slows core execution.
Mitigation: Treat M&A as upside, not a core assumption. Demand proof via ARPU improvement, retention, and stable EBITDA margin post-integration.
Multiple compression if growth settles into low-teens or rates rise; stock can de-rate even if fundamentals remain solid.
Mitigation: Use staged entry + prefer buying after guidance resets; lean on buyback support and require margin durability before sizing up.
Scale Readiness
Large network footprint with ~54,950 recurring revenue customers and long history of growth.
ARPU around ~$13.3k; needs clean proof of upward trend post-acquisition mix effects.
Consistent topline growth for many years; 2025 shows some spend scrutiny and deceleration.
Portfolio spans EDI/compliance + fulfillment + analytics; acquisitions add adjacent capabilities.
Adjusted EBITDA margin ~30-32% in 2025 quarters; key is sustaining while re-accelerating.
Meaningful international presence (customers across many countries) but still an execution lever.
Multiple acquisitions; integration and cross-sell execution remains a key watch item.
Ongoing repurchases and a new $100M authorization effective Dec 1, 2025.
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.