VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
★ EXPANSION-STAGE STOCKS & SCALING SETUPS ★
NO ADVICE
Sunday, January 11, 2026
Doximity, Inc.
DOCS · NYSE
This analysis is generated by AI and supervised by humans. Scores reflect business model strength, scaling runway, and valuation setup. Mistakes can happen.
Overview
Verified digital platform for U.S. medical professionals. Monetizes via subscription-based Marketing Solutions (pharma/brands) and Hiring Solutions (health systems), while driving engagement through workflow tools (telehealth, dialer, fax, scheduling) and AI tools (e.g., AI Scribe, DoxGPT).
Thesis summary
Doximity has a rare combo: (1) distribution (80%+ of U.S. physicians on the network), (2) embedded workflow utility, and (3) subscription monetization with strong expansion dynamics (TTM net revenue retention 118% and 121 customers with $500k+ trailing subscription revenue as of 9/30/2025). With fiscal Q2 FY2026 revenue up 23% YoY and ~60% adjusted EBITDA margin, the model is proven; the next leg is scaling sales/product throughput (pharma + enterprise) and deepening workflow + AI adoption while letting operating leverage and buybacks compound per-share value.
Investment Thesis
Why Now?
FY2026 showed re-acceleration and raised guidance (Q2 FY2026). Workflow engagement hit record levels (650k+ prescribers using tools in Q2), and AI usage grew sharply quarter-over-quarter. The Pathway acquisition adds clinical AI reference assets/datasets, potentially expanding the product surface area and long-term monetization.
Scaling Thesis
Scaling is driven by (1) land-and-expand with large customers (NRR + growing $500k+ cohort), (2) expanding share of wallet in pharma brand budgets via more integrated programs and measurement, (3) deeper enterprise penetration by bundling workflow + AI into daily clinician routines, and (4) structurally high incremental margins enabling operating leverage and capital return.
Competitive Moat
Verified clinician identity + distribution, trust with physicians, high-frequency workflow integration (not just "media"), and a growing AI/workflow product suite that compounds engagement. High switching costs emerge as tools become embedded in daily practice and as customers standardize spend and measurement on the platform.
Key Assumptions
Valuation Scenarios
Illustrative: 2028E revenue $0.9B, 45% adj EBITDA margin, 15x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes slower growth + multiple compression.
Illustrative: 2028E revenue $1.1B, 55% adj EBITDA margin, 20x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes durable land-and-expand and steady operating leverage.
Illustrative: 2028E revenue $1.3B, 60% adj EBITDA margin, 25x EV/adj EBITDA; assumes AI/workflow drives premium growth and sustained high margins.
Catalysts
Next earnings report (fiscal Q3 FY2026) and any further FY2026 guidance change.
Another beat/raise reinforces that FY2026 acceleration is real and can support multiple expansion.
Clear monetization path for AI Scribe / DoxGPT and Pathway clinical reference inside workflow (paid tiers or enterprise bundling).
If AI tools move from engagement to paid expansion, it can lift NRR and long-term revenue growth expectations.
Continued growth in customers with $500k+ trailing subscription revenue and stable/improving NRR.
Signals repeatable GTM and enterprise durability; supports higher-quality growth narrative.
Acceleration of repurchases under the existing buyback authorization.
Improves per-share compounding (especially if valuation remains reasonable and FCF stays strong).
Risks
Pharma/brand marketing budgets tighten or shift spend away from Doximity modules, slowing growth.
Mitigation: Track revenue growth vs. guidance, large-customer cohort growth, and any changes in renewal/expansion commentary.
Competitive products (including new AI-native entrants) reduce engagement or pricing power in workflow/AI.
Mitigation: Watch workflow usage metrics, retention, and product velocity; require NRR >115% as a guardrail.
Data privacy/security or healthcare advertising/compliance issues constrain product features or customer behavior.
Mitigation: Monitor disclosures in 10-Q/10-K risk factors and any security/compliance incidents; size conservatively given tail risk.
A relatively small cohort of large customers contributes a large share of revenue; losses/downsizing can hit growth.
Mitigation: Track $500k+ cohort count and NRR; look for broad-based cohort expansion rather than one-off wins.
Even with solid execution, valuation/multiples compress due to rates, sentiment, or growth deceleration.
Mitigation: Use staged entries, prefer buying on dislocations, and anchor sizing to downside scenarios.
Scale Readiness
Workflow tools used by ~650k prescribers in fiscal Q2 FY2026; network includes 80%+ of U.S. physicians.
TTM net revenue retention 118%; 121 customers with $500k+ trailing subscription revenue.
Fiscal Q2 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin ~59.8% and strong free cash flow.
Workflow suite + accelerating AI adoption (AI Scribe/DoxGPT usage up sharply QoQ); Pathway acquisition expands clinical reference.
Large-customer cohort growing (+16% YoY in the $500k+ cohort), suggesting room to expand share of wallet.
Healthcare + AI introduces higher compliance/privacy scrutiny; execution must remain clean as product surface expands.
Net cash position and ongoing repurchase authorization with significant remaining capacity.
Curation & Accuracy
This directory blends AI‑assisted discovery with human curation. Entries are reviewed, edited, and organized with the goal of expanding coverage and sharpening quality over time. Your feedback helps steer improvements (because no single human can capture everything all at once).
Details change. Pricing, features, and availability may be incomplete or out of date. Treat listings as a starting point and verify on the provider’s site before making decisions. If you spot an error or a gap, send a quick note and I’ll adjust.