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Greggs plc GRG

LondonRestaurantsFinancials to Jun 27, 2026 · Updated Oct 7, 2026

On Stock Analysis · affiliate link
GRG financials
Moat score
75
ROIC
23.7%
P/E
15.8
EV/EBIT
10.4
FCF yield
7.9%
Dividend yield
3.4%
Market cap
£2.1B

Moat ranks

Score rankTied #201 of 396
Durabilitymedium
Market structureCompetitive
Pricing powerweak

Balance sheet

6/27/26
£MDec 27Jun 27
Cash57.330.9
Securities0.00.0
Debt25.015.0
Net cash32.315.9
Equity625.2632.7
Leverage
Debt / EBITDA
0.04×
Debt / equity
0.02×
Leases (6/27/26)
£454M
Capital
Diluted shares
102M
Book value / share
£6.18
Price / book
3.3×
Net cash / share
£0.16
Market cap
£2.1B
Enterprise value
£2.1B

Per-share record

Fiscal years and TTM
Scale
£0£10£20£30'16'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'2420.99'2521.73TTM
Revenue per shareCash flow per share

Key indicators

Latest: H1 '26
IndicatorLatestVs year agoLast 8 halves
Revenue growth7.2%+0.2 pts
Operating margin7.9%+1.0 pts
FCF margin6.1%+11.0 pts
Capex / revenue7.0%-10.0 pts
App transaction penetration31.0%+5.3 pts
Food-to-go visit share8.7%–
Franchise and wholesale revenue£138M+18%
Trading shops · 9/26/262,796–
Company-managed comparable-shop sales growth+3%–

Margins and growth from reported quarters; company KPIs as reported in results releases.

About GRG

Greggs sells value-priced bakery food, sandwiches and drinks through its own shops and franchise and wholesale partners. Managed shops supplied 88.2% of FY2025 revenue and B2B supplied 11.8%.

Revenue mix
Retail company-managed shops 88.2%Business-to-business (franchise & wholesale) 11.8%
  • Physical Network Density

    The estate reached 2,796 shops in September 2026, including 639 franchised shops.

  • Supply Chain Control

    Integrated manufacturing and distribution support product availability and value pricing.

  • Brand Trust

    Greggs combines high UK awareness with value leadership; it gained food-to-go visit share and overall volume in a declining market, supporting repeat demand without implying monopoly power.

  • Brand Trust

    A strong consumer brand helps franchise and wholesale partners drive demand, improving partner economics and willingness to commit to the format.

Timeline
  1. Sep 30, 2026

    Greggs proposed four manufacturing-site closures and changes at other sites, with around 740 roles at risk. Planned cash costs of GBP60m precede targeted annual cash operating savings of GBP20m in 2028-2029; consultation means the plans remain provisional.

  2. Sep 30, 2026

    Greggs raised its 2026 outlook modestly after Q3 comparable-shop sales grew 3.4%. Demand and cost control improved, while new distribution centres will add overheads in 2027.

  3. Jul 1, 2026

    Greggs appointed Ben Waldron as CFO-designate from October 27, 2026, succeeding Richard Hutton on January 1, 2027. The handover spans major supply-chain commissioning.

  4. Dec 28, 2024 · Half year · Gain +£14M

    The Twickenham bakery property sale produced a GBP13.8m gain net of fees. It lifted reported earnings without improving recurring shop trading.

  5. Dec 30, 2023 · Full year · Gain +£4M

    Settlement of the Treforest bakery flood-insurance claim added GBP4.0m to profit. This recovery relates to the 2020 flood and does not reflect recurring shop demand. The filing reports the annual amount without a quarter.

Ownership

CEO
Roisin Currie
Since 2022 · 4 yrs
Professional CEOSingle share class

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Financial record

Fiscal year2016201720182019202020212022202320242025TTMTrendChange 2016–25
Per share (£)
Revenue8.749.4010.1111.418.0411.9714.7817.6919.6420.9921.73+10.2%/yr
Cash flow1.151.141.342.140.432.782.463.043.113.243.44+12.2%/yr
Earnings0.570.560.650.85-0.131.141.181.391.501.191.29+8.6%/yr
Free cash flow0.370.430.681.27-0.182.251.451.100.760.451.60+2.4%/yr
Capex0.780.710.650.870.610.531.011.942.352.781.83+15.1%/yr
Dividends0.300.320.320.700.000.150.960.591.040.690.69+9.5%/yr
Book value2.592.933.233.393.194.184.365.195.566.106.18+10.0%/yr
Diluted shares (M)102102102102101103102102103102102+0.0%/yr
Totals (£B)
Revenue0.91.01.01.20.81.21.51.82.02.22.2+10.2%/yr
Operating income0.10.10.10.1-0.00.20.20.20.20.20.2+10.4%/yr
Net income0.10.10.10.1-0.00.10.10.10.20.10.1+8.6%/yr
Free cash flow0.00.00.10.1-0.00.20.10.10.10.00.2+2.4%/yr
Buybacks0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0–
Dividends0.00.00.00.10.00.00.10.10.10.10.1+9.5%/yr
Net cash0.00.10.10.10.00.20.20.20.10.00.0−£0.0B
Margins & returns (%)
Gross margin63.262.763.164.263.063.662.060.761.761.561.7-1.8 pts
Operating margin8.47.58.09.8-0.912.510.210.610.48.59.0+0.1 pts
Net margin6.55.96.47.4-1.69.68.07.97.65.75.9-0.8 pts
FCF margin4.24.66.811.1-2.218.89.86.23.92.27.4-2.0 pts
ROIC25.121.625.132.8-1.848.544.341.933.722.623.7-2.5 pts
Return on equity21.919.020.025.1-4.027.427.026.826.919.520.8-2.4 pts
Stock pay % of revenue0.20.20.20.40.10.20.20.30.20.10.1-0.2 pts
Capex % of revenue9.07.66.57.67.64.46.810.912.013.38.4+4.3 pts

Change uses 2016 and 2025 only: compound annual growth for amounts, points for margins and returns, and the change in amount for net cash. A dash means no 2016 base. Trend shows the fiscal years.

TTM = two half years to Jun 27, 2026. Per-share values use diluted weighted shares.ROIC = operating income × (1 − 26.9% tax rate, the company's own over three fiscal years excluding one-offs) ÷ (equity + debt − cash and current securities). Returns show a dash when their base is negative or under 10% of revenue. Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capex. Debt is all borrowings; net cash counts long-term securities and excludes leases.

Moat

Moat scorecard

Moat score75
Strength
Confidence
Structure
Competitive
Durability
medium
Trajectory
widening
Pricing power
weak
Segments
  • Retail company-managed shops88.2%
    3 claims
  • Business-to-business (franchise & wholesale)11.8%
    1 claim

Moat claims

Applies to
Retail company-managed shops
Confidence
Durability
medium
Trajectory
wideningas of Sep 26, 2026
Why it holds

The estate reached 2,796 shops in September 2026, including 639 franchised shops. Broad access and repeat visits support convenience, but rivals can enter local catchments and growth must cover rent and labour.

Why widening

The estate reached 2,796 shops with 57 net openings through September 2026, extending convenient access while new sites still face local rivals.

Indicators
  • Trading shops2,796
  • Company-managed comparable-shop sales growth+3%
Risks
  • Estate saturation and self-cannibalisation from rapid openings
  • Footfall shifts away from traditional locations
  • Rent, rates, and wage inflation pressuring shop-level economics

Profile change log

  1. Oct 7, 2026 · business change

    Greggs raised its 2026 outlook modestly after Q3 comparable-shop sales grew 3.4%. Demand and cost control improved, while new distribution centres will add overheads in 2027.

  2. Oct 7, 2026 · business change

    Greggs proposed four manufacturing-site closures and changes at other sites, with around 740 roles at risk. Planned cash costs of GBP60m precede targeted annual cash operating savings of GBP20m in 2028-2029; consultation means the plans remain provisional.

  3. Oct 7, 2026 · business change

    Greggs appointed Ben Waldron as CFO-designate from October 27, 2026, succeeding Richard Hutton on January 1, 2027. The handover spans major supply-chain commissioning.

  4. Oct 7, 2026 · analyst revision

    Revenue weights now use FY2025 instead of H1 2026: managed shops 88.2% instead of 87.5%, B2B 11.8% instead of 12.5%. Removed trading-profit weights because group overheads were excluded. Added sourced trajectories, management, debate and two UK end-market profiles; moat strengths are unchanged.

Industry & peers

Peer map

0%10%20%30%40%50%60708090100Moat scoreIndustry medianGRG
No peer numbers yet

Peers appear on the map as their numbers are collected.

GRG vs MCDGRG vs SBUX

UK food-to-go

As of Oct 7, 2026
CompetitiveMedium cyclicalityGBP 27B in 2029

Prepared food and drinks bought for immediate consumption away from home through bakery and sandwich specialists, quick-service restaurants, coffee shops, supermarkets, convenience stores and travel outlets. Excludes meals cooked at home and full table-service dining; franchise shops are counted at consumer sales, without counting wholesale supply a second time.

  1. Greggs
  2. Marks & Spencer
2025 leaders, no comparable shares · Lumina Intelligence UK food-to-go 2026 competitive landscape
StocksMoatGross m.Op. m.
GRG7561.7%9.0%
Industry median77861.7%9.0%
Sector median857455.3%17.0%
All stocks median3987653.1%20.0%

Moat medians cover every stock. Margin medians count only stocks with collected numbers and need at least three.

Drivers & risks

Demand drivers
  • Office attendance and passenger travel increase breakfast and lunch occasions near commuter hubs.
  • Low-priced bundles attract customers seeking value, while quality and healthier choices help retain them.
  • Convenient shops, delivery and longer opening hours extend purchase occasions across the day.
  • Central production and dense delivery routes can reduce unit costs when volumes cover fixed investment.
Risks
  • Weak household disposable income and higher mortgage payments encourage packed lunches; value-led brands can gain share while total visits fall.
  • Wage, employer National Insurance, energy and ingredient costs limit price increases when competitors promote low-priced meals.
  • Hot weather changes demand for bakery and hot products and makes quarter-to-quarter comparisons volatile.
  • Food safety, allergens, labelling and nutrition rules can add costs or damage confidence in a brand.
  • Interest rates raise lease and borrowing costs; sterling weakness can raise the cost of imported ingredients and equipment even when sales are in GBP.

Bulls & bears

Key question · as of Oct 7, 2026

Can Greggs convert stronger repeat demand and a larger estate into enough cash profit to cover its new distribution capacity and manufacturing transition while keeping its value advantage?

Arguments

3 forFaded: weakening or settled3 against

What to watch

  1. 1Company-managed comparable-shop sales and food-to-go visit share
  2. 2Net operating cash flow, cash capex and revolving-facility drawdown
  3. 3Distribution commissioning, manufacturing cash costs and realised savings

Next check: Q4 trading update on January 14, 2027, including the 2027 cost outlook and manufacturing consultation; CFO-designate joins October 27, 2026.

Sources: company filings and dated sources collected for Find My Moat; market cap as of Oct 6, 2026. Not investment advice.

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Free to reuse, commercially too, with a credit link. See the data license.

Moat Score 75/100 by <a href="https://www.findmymoat.com/stocks/XLON:GRG">Find My Moat</a> (as of September 2026)

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