VOL. XCIV, NO. 247
WIDE MOAT STOCKS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Brown-Forman Corporation BF.B
NYSEBeer, wine and spiritsFinancials to Jul 31, 2026 · Updated Oct 6, 2026
Moat ranks
Balance sheet
| $B | Apr 30 | Jul 31 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Securities | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Debt | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Net cash | -2.2 | -2.1 |
| Equity | 4.0 | 4.0 |
- Debt / EBITDA
- 2.25×
- Debt / equity
- 0.62×
- Leases (4/30/26)
- $109M
- Diluted shares
- 460M
- Book value / share
- $8.64
- Price / book
- 3.1×
- Net cash / share
- −$4.66
- Market cap
- $12.1B
- Enterprise value
- $14.3B
Per-share record
Key indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Vs year ago | Last 8 quarters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -1.4% | +1.4 pts | |
| Operating margin | 27.7% | -0.5 pts | |
| FCF margin | 17.7% | +3.7 pts | |
| Capex / revenue | 1.3% | -2.0 pts | |
| Whiskey net sales | $658M | -0% | |
| Ready-To-Drink net sales | $154M | +20% | |
| Tequila net sales | $54M | -13% | |
| Rest Of Portfolio net sales | $39M | -36% | |
| Barreled whiskey inventory | $1.5B | -3% |
Margins and growth from reported quarters; company KPIs as reported in results releases.
About BF.B
Brown-Forman makes and sells branded spirits, led by Jack Daniel’s and Woodford Reserve whiskey, with RTD drinks, tequila, rum, gin and liqueurs. Whiskey supplies most sales.
- Brand Trust
Jack Daniel’s remains the world’s leading American whiskey brand, while Woodford Reserve anchors super-premium bourbon.
- Distribution Control
Owned distribution in 18 countries improves retailer contact, execution and launch speed.
- Capacity Moat
Aging whiskey for years requires inventory, warehouses and production skills before sales occur.
- Brand Trust
Jack Daniel’s and the Coca-Cola partnership give canned drinks recognizable flavors and trusted branding.
- Sep 21, 2026
Brown-Forman issued $500 million of 5.375% notes due 2031 for general corporate purposes, adding funding flexibility and interest obligations after the July balance sheet. The filing does not allocate the proceeds to a specific use. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000119312526396679/d178040d8k.htm
- Sep 10, 2026
Brown-Forman debuted Kentucky Boy as a limited bourbon release honoring Chris Morris, adding a premium expression without a disclosed recurring sales target. Source: https://investors.brown-forman.com/investors/news-releases/press-release/2026/Brown-Forman-Revives-Kentucky-Boy-Bourbon-Honoring-Master-Distiller-Chris-Morris-50-Year-Legacy/default.aspx
- Sep 2, 2026
Brown-Forman reaffirmed FY2027 guidance for approximately flat organic sales and a 3-5% fall in organic operating income. Strong New Mix demand has not yet offset weakness across the portfolio. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000052/bfb-20260731.htm
- Jul 26, 2026
Brown-Forman’s board concluded Sazerac’s acquisition proposal was not actionable after Wolf Pen Branch, the controlling family partnership, opposed it. Outside shareholders cannot assume that a bidder’s approach will lead to a sale. Source: https://www.brown-forman.com/article/brown-forman-board-issues-statement-july-26-2026
- Jul 13, 2026
Lawson Whiting announced he will retire as CEO when a successor is appointed. The board opened an internal and external search, adding leadership transition risk while the business faces weaker demand. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000033/bfb-20260713.htm
Ownership
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On this page
Financial record
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | TTM | Trend | Change 2017–26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per share ($) | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6.13 | 6.71 | 6.90 | 7.00 | 7.20 | 8.18 | 8.80 | 8.75 | 8.40 | 8.42 | 8.52 | +3.6%/yr | |
| Cash flow | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.66 | 1.51 | 1.70 | 1.95 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.26 | 2.14 | 2.20 | +5.3%/yr | |
| Earnings | 1.37 | 1.48 | 1.73 | 1.72 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 1.63 | 2.15 | 1.84 | 1.53 | 1.57 | +1.2%/yr | |
| Free cash flow | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.41 | 1.27 | 1.57 | 1.66 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 1.91 | 2.01 | +6.2%/yr | |
| Capex | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 0.19 | -0.0%/yr | |
| Dividends | 0.56 | 1.60 | 0.64 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 1.73 | 0.79 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 0.93 | +5.6%/yr | |
| Book value | 2.81 | 2.72 | 3.42 | 4.11 | 5.53 | 5.70 | 6.80 | 7.37 | 8.44 | 8.61 | 8.64 | +13.3%/yr | |
| Diluted shares (M) | 488 | 484 | 482 | 480 | 481 | 481 | 480 | 477 | 473 | 467 | 460 | -0.5%/yr | |
| Totals ($B) | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | +3.1%/yr | |
| Operating income | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -0.1%/yr | |
| Net income | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | +0.7%/yr | |
| Free cash flow | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | +5.7%/yr | |
| Buybacks | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -3.7%/yr | |
| Dividends | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | +5.1%/yr | |
| Net cash | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.1 | -1.9 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -2.3 | -2.2 | -2.1 | −$0.2B | |
| Margins & returns (%) | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 67.5 | 67.8 | 65.2 | 63.2 | 60.5 | 60.8 | 59.0 | 60.5 | 58.9 | 60.5 | 60.7 | -7.0 pts | |
| Operating margin | 33.7 | 32.3 | 34.4 | 32.4 | 33.7 | 30.6 | 26.7 | 33.8 | 27.8 | 25.5 | 25.4 | -8.3 pts | |
| Net margin | 22.3 | 22.1 | 25.1 | 24.6 | 26.1 | 21.3 | 18.5 | 24.5 | 21.9 | 18.2 | 18.4 | -4.1 pts | |
| FCF margin | 18.2 | 16.2 | 20.5 | 18.2 | 21.8 | 20.3 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 22.7 | 23.6 | +4.6 pts | |
| ROIC | 23.7 | 22.5 | 23.7 | 21.9 | 22.4 | 22.7 | 15.2 | 17.9 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 12.7 | -11.1 pts | |
| Return on equity | 48.8 | 54.5 | 50.7 | 41.9 | 34.0 | 30.6 | 24.0 | 29.1 | 21.8 | 17.8 | 18.2 | -31.0 pts | |
| R&D % of revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 pts | |
| Stock pay % of revenue | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.3 pts | |
| Capex % of revenue | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | -1.0 pts | |
Change uses 2017 and 2026 only: compound annual growth for amounts, points for margins and returns, and the change in amount for net cash. A dash means no 2017 base. Trend shows the fiscal years.
Moat
Moat scorecard
- Strength
- Confidence
- Structure
- Competitive
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- narrowing
- Pricing power
- moderate
- Whiskey73.9%3 claims
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD/RTP)13.8%2 claims
- Tequila6.4%1 claim
- Rest of Portfolio (Other Branded Spirits)5.1%1 claim
- Non-branded and Bulk0.8%No moat
Moat claims
- Applies to
- Whiskey
- Confidence
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- narrowingas of Oct 6, 2026
Jack Daniel’s remains the world’s leading American whiskey brand, while Woodford Reserve anchors super-premium bourbon. Familiar taste and brand history help repeat purchase and support premium shelf positions; consumers can still switch at little cost.
Core Jack Daniel’s organic sales fell 5% in FY2024, rose 1% in FY2025 and fell 4% in FY2026. Flat Q1 FY2027 sales and weaker flavored variants do not yet show sustained consumer recovery.
- Whiskey net sales$658M-0%
- Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey annual organic net sales growth-4%
- Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey Q1 organic net sales growth0%
- Group annual price/mix contribution-3.0%-5.0 pts
- Group Q1 price/mix contribution-8.0%-2.0 pts
- Less frequent drinking and cheaper substitutes reduce repeat purchases.
- Competing bourbon, Scotch and tequila brands can win the same drinking occasions.
- New expressions can shift sales from the core brand without expanding demand.
- Applies to
- Whiskey
- Confidence
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- stableas of Oct 6, 2026
Owned distribution in 18 countries improves retailer contact, execution and launch speed. In the U.S., distributors and state authorities still control access; outside owned markets, third-party contracts matter.
Italy expanded owned distribution in May 2025, but developed-market sales remained weak in Q1 FY2027. A larger footprint has not yet demonstrated a lasting sales advantage.
- Whiskey net sales$658M-0%
- Owned-distribution countries180%
- Retailer and distributor consolidation limits bargaining power.
- Transitions can cause temporary stock movements and execution failures.
- Tariffs or government delistings can block access despite local distribution.
- Applies to
- Whiskey
- Confidence
- Durability
- durable
- Trajectory
- narrowingas of Oct 6, 2026
Aging whiskey for years requires inventory, warehouses and production skills before sales occur. This creates a time barrier, especially for older expressions, but broad industry supply and weak used-barrel demand limit evidence of scarce capacity. FY2026 capital spending was $107 million.
Aging inventory remains large while demand is soft. Lower used-barrel sales and reduced capital spending point to excess supply pressure rather than a stronger shortage-based advantage.
- Barreled whiskey inventory$1.5B-3%
- Non-branded and bulk net sales$6M-57%
- Excess aged stock ties up cash and can require discounting.
- Rivals can build inventory years ahead; generic bourbon capacity is not exclusive.
- Fire, contamination, water constraints or crop damage can impair long-dated stock.
- Applies to
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD/RTP)
- Confidence
- Durability
- medium
- Trajectory
- stableas of Oct 6, 2026
Jack Daniel’s and the Coca-Cola partnership give canned drinks recognizable flavors and trusted branding. New Mix has strong Mexican consumer demand, but brand extension alone does not protect a new flavor from substitutes.
RTD organic sales rose 7% in FY2026 and 11% in Q1 FY2027, led by New Mix. Jack Daniel’s RTD organic sales fell 5% and 4% in those periods, so gains are uneven across brands.
- Ready-To-Drink net sales$154M+20%
- Group annual price/mix contribution-3.0%-5.0 pts
- Group Q1 price/mix contribution-8.0%-2.0 pts
- New Mix annual organic net sales growth+33%
- Competing canned cocktails and no-alcohol products replace drinking occasions.
- Flavor launches and promotion can have short lives.
- Malt-based and spirit-based products have different tax, channel and consumer trends.
- FilingBrown-Forman FY2026 10-K: brands, distribution, maturation, competition and resultsJun 12, 2026
- FilingBrown-Forman FY2027 Q1 10-Q: product results, inventories and outlookSep 2, 2026
- SourceIWSR: global beverage alcohol volumes in 2025Jun 11, 2026
- Applies to
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD/RTP)
- Confidence
- Durability
- medium
- Trajectory
- stableas of Oct 6, 2026
Existing sales teams help RTD brands reach stores, while Coca-Cola bottling partners extend selected products. Partner contracts, retailer choices and local alcohol rules determine how much of the channel Brown-Forman controls.
U.S. Country Cocktails responsibility returned to Brown-Forman in July 2026. Q1 includes the transition and launch activity; its organic comparison removes the defined business-model effect, so reported growth is not all extra demand.
- Ready-To-Drink net sales$154M+20%
- Owned-distribution countries180%
- New Mix annual organic net sales growth+33%
- Partner changes can interrupt supply or shift reported revenue.
- Spirit-based drinks face restricted retail access and higher taxes in some markets.
- Retailers can replace products that do not sell through.
- Applies to
- Tequila
- Confidence
- Durability
- medium
- Trajectory
- narrowingas of Oct 6, 2026
Herradura and el Jimador use Brown-Forman’s global selling network and Mexican production base. This helps reach customers, but competing tequila producers have the same regulated routes and strong brands.
Tequila organic sales fell 12% in FY2025, 6% in FY2026 and 13% in Q1 FY2027. Lower volumes and net pricing show that distribution reach has not protected the segment from competition.
- Tequila net sales$54M-13%
- Owned-distribution countries180%
- Agave supply cycles can lower input costs for rivals and increase discounting.
- U.S. demand weakness and Mexican peso movements affect sales and costs.
- Tequila export rules and tariffs can restrict access.
- Applies to
- Rest of Portfolio (Other Branded Spirits)
- Confidence
- Durability
- medium
- Trajectory
- narrowingas of Oct 6, 2026
The existing sales network can introduce Diplomático rum, Gin Mare gin and Chambord liqueur without building a new route in every country. Shelf access helps, but it has not established protected positions or proven the returns on acquired brands.
FY2026 organic sales rose 18%, partly through owned-market distribution, but Q1 FY2027 fell 12%. Repeated impairments, including $132 million in FY2026, weaken the case that reach creates durable brand value.
- Rest Of Portfolio net sales$39M-36%
- Owned-distribution countries180%
- Rum, gin and liqueur consumers can switch among many brands.
- Acquisitions can cost more than later cash earnings justify.
- Agency exits and transition services distort reported category comparisons.
Profile change log
- Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision
The current debate now includes the announced CEO succession and the board-confirmed Sazerac rejection. Whiting remains CEO until a successor is appointed; the family’s decision is evidence of effective voting control, not an agreed acquisition.
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman’s board concluded Sazerac’s acquisition proposal was not actionable after Wolf Pen Branch, the controlling family partnership, opposed it. Outside shareholders cannot assume that a bidder’s approach will lead to a sale. Source: https://www.brown-forman.com/article/brown-forman-board-issues-statement-july-26-2026
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Lawson Whiting announced he will retire as CEO when a successor is appointed. The board opened an internal and external search, adding leadership transition risk while the business faces weaker demand. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000033/bfb-20260713.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman bought Diplomático and Botucal rum for $727 million cash, adding premium rum alongside whiskey and tequila. Later brand impairments show that acquisition returns have fallen short of initial expectations. Source: FY2023 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469323000074/bfb-20230430.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman bought Gin Mare for $524 million, including $468 million cash and $56 million initial contingent consideration, expanding premium gin but adding an earn-out and acquisition-return risk. Source: FY2023 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469323000074/bfb-20230430.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman issued $500 million of 5.375% notes due 2031 for general corporate purposes, adding funding flexibility and interest obligations after the July balance sheet. The filing does not allocate the proceeds to a specific use. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000119312526396679/d178040d8k.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman debuted Kentucky Boy as a limited bourbon release honoring Chris Morris, adding a premium expression without a disclosed recurring sales target. Source: https://investors.brown-forman.com/investors/news-releases/press-release/2026/Brown-Forman-Revives-Kentucky-Boy-Bourbon-Honoring-Master-Distiller-Chris-Morris-50-Year-Legacy/default.aspx
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman reaffirmed FY2027 guidance for approximately flat organic sales and a 3-5% fall in organic operating income. Strong New Mix demand has not yet offset weakness across the portfolio. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000052/bfb-20260731.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman took back U.S. Country Cocktails supply, sales, marketing and distribution from Pabst, changing the reported RTD business model and execution responsibility. Source: https://www.brown-forman.com/article/brown-forman-and-pabst-brewing-company-conclude-partnership-flavored-malt-beverages-us
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman and Pernod Ricard ended combination talks without mutually agreeable terms, leaving the recovery dependent on the standalone business. Source: https://www.brown-forman.com/article/brown-forman-and-pernod-ricard-terminate-discussions-regarding-potential-combination-april
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Jim Peters became chief financial officer, bringing external finance leadership during cost reductions and weaker spirits demand. Source: https://www.brown-forman.com/article/brown-forman-names-jim-peters-chief-financial-officer-march-16-2026
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
The Sixth Circuit upheld evidence of Woodford Reserve labor violations but denied enforcement and remanded the NLRB order because the Cemex bargaining framework exceeded the Board’s authority. The case remains unresolved; no material financial loss was quantified. Source: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCOURTS-ca6-24-02107/pdf/USCOURTS-ca6-24-02107-0.pdf
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
The Korbel distribution relationship ended, removing agency sales from the portfolio and reducing comparability of smaller-brand revenue. Source: FY2026 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman started owned distribution in Italy, expanding direct retailer contact to 18 countries. Source: https://investors.brown-forman.com/investors/news-releases/press-release/2025/Brown-Forman-Launches-Distribution-Business-in-Italy/default.aspx
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman announced workforce reductions and closure of its Louisville cooperage, reducing costs but removing in-house barrel production. Source: FY2026 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Butterfly Equity acquired Duckhorn, converting Brown-Forman’s remaining stake to $350 million cash and creating a $78 million gain. Source: FY2025 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469325000062/bfb-20250430.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman sold Sonoma-Cutrer for cash and a Duckhorn stake, removing its owned wine business. Source: FY2024 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469324000086/bfb-20240430.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · business change
Brown-Forman sold Finlandia, reducing vodka exposure and creating a gain rather than ongoing spirits profit. Source: FY2024 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469324000086/bfb-20240430.htm
- Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision
All five product groups now link to dated shared end-market profiles covering competitors, demand, channel rules, currencies, input costs and trade risk.
- Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision
The investment debate now separates core whiskey recovery from RTD launch and distributor-stock effects. Management and family voting control are sourced to the current proxy.
- Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision
Non-branded and bulk classified as verified no moat. FY2026 and Q1 FY2027 used-barrel demand and pricing declines support a commodity-like assessment; it now contributes zero rather than being omitted from the moat score.
- Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision
Tequila pricing power revised from moderate to weak after lower net pricing and another organic sales decline. Whiskey and tequila market structure revised from oligopoly to competitive to reflect broad brand substitution without a verified common-basis concentration measure.
- Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision
Whiskey capacity strength revised from 3 to 2. Aging inventory creates a time barrier, but weak barrel demand does not show scarce capacity. FY2026 capex is $107 million, replacing the earlier $274 million figure attributed to that year.
- Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision
Distribution-control strengths revised from 3 to 2 across branded product groups. Owned distribution improves execution but does not confer exclusive access; latest product results show uneven consumer demand.
- Oct 6, 2026 · analyst revision
Whiskey brand strength revised from 5 to 4 and pricing power from strong to moderate. Three years of uneven core Jack Daniel’s sales and the latest flat quarter qualify its global brand leadership.
Industry & peers
Peer map
Global premium whiskey
Premium-and-above American, Scotch, Irish, Japanese and other whiskies sold globally for home, bar, restaurant and travel-retail consumption. Producer shipments, consumer sales and inventories are different measures. No verified global dollar total or common-basis producer shares were available; U.S. American-whiskey data below are a narrower reference.
- Brown-Forman: Jack Daniel’s and Woodford Reserve
- Diageo: Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal and American whiskey
- Pernod Ricard: Jameson, Chivas Regal, Ballantine’s and The Glenlivet
- Suntory Global Spirits: Jim Beam, Maker’s Mark and Japanese whisky
| Stocks | Moat | Gross m. | Op. m. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BF.B | 69 | 60.7% | 25.4% | |
| Industry median | 11 | 76 | 58.9% | 24.2% |
| Sector median | 85 | 74 | 55.5% | 16.9% |
| All stocks median | 398 | 76 | 52.9% | 19.6% |
Moat medians cover every stock. Margin medians count only stocks with collected numbers and need at least three.
Drivers & risks
- Consumer income and confidence move premium upgrades and bar spending. Recessions can shift drinkers to cheaper bottles even when occasions continue.
- Brand familiarity, consistent taste, cocktail use and genuinely differentiated aged expressions support repeat demand.
- Direct retailer relationships and improved international access can grow a brand, but shipments can rise temporarily during distributor transitions.
- Grain, oak, glass, labor and energy costs enter aging inventory before earnings; the cost effect can arrive years after input prices move.
- Currency translation strongly affects global suppliers. Interest rates have an indirect demand effect and raise the cost of funding long-aged inventory.
- Lower drinking frequency, health concerns and no-alcohol alternatives can reduce long-term demand rather than simply delay purchases.
- Excess aged stocks and competing established brands can force discounts; broad American-whiskey capacity is currently not clearly scarce.
- Tariffs, government shelf removals and excise or advertising restrictions can cut access to export markets. DISCUS’s February 2026 report describes Canadian restrictions and unresolved tariff threats, not a uniform worldwide tariff regime.
- Fire, water scarcity, crop damage or warehouse contamination can destroy stock that takes years to replace.
- Distributor stock builds and sales of limited expressions can overstate durable consumer demand.
Bulls & bears
Can Jack Daniel’s recover consumer demand and net pricing without relying on distributor stock builds, while RTD growth earns enough to offset weaker tequila and smaller brands?
Arguments
What to watch
- 1Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey organic sales and consumer demand versus distributor inventory.
- 2Whiskey and RTD product sales, including New Mix and Jack Daniel’s RTD organic changes.
- 3Reported price/mix, with volume and portfolio shifts explained separately.
- 4Tequila net pricing and volumes in the U.S. and Mexico.
- 5Barreled whiskey inventory, operating cash flow and capital spending.
- 6Gin Mare and Diplomático impairments and contingent consideration.
- 7Organic operating income versus FY2027 guidance, plus debt and buybacks after the September issue.
- 8CEO succession terms and continuity of brand, distribution and capital-allocation plans.
Next check: Review the quarter ending October 31, 2026 when results are published. The release date is not yet confirmed. Check whether Jack Daniel’s improvement reflects consumer demand, then compare price/mix, RTD demand, inventories and organic operating income with the September outlook.
Sources: company filings and dated sources collected for Find My Moat; market cap as of Oct 5, 2026. Not investment advice.
Free to reuse, commercially too, with a credit link. See the data license.
Moat Score 69/100 by <a href="https://www.findmymoat.com/stocks/XNYS:BF.B">Find My Moat</a> (as of September 2026)Request update
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